Inductive Reasoning The role of argument forms in evaluating probabilities

Getting Started First, one becomes interested in something:

Getting Started First, one becomes interested in something: Call it Y

Getting Started First, one becomes interested in something: Y Next, one notices some things about it:

Getting Started First, one becomes interested in something: Y Next, one notices some things about it: Y has properties a, b, c...n

Getting Started First, one becomes interested in something: Y Next, one notices some things about it: Because we somehow care about or are concerned about Y, a question arises: Y has properties a, b, c...n

Getting Started First, one becomes interested in something: Y Next, one notices some things about it: Because we somehow care about or are concerned about Y, a question arises: Is what we are able to observe personally or find out from someone else all we can reasonably believe about Y? Y has properties a, b, c...n

The next question is... What else is probably true of Y?

The next question is... What else is probably true of Y?

A General Form of Inductive Reasoning We are interested in Y We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...n

A General Form of Inductive Reasoning We are interested in Y We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...n We recall: X has properties a, b, c...n

A General Form of Inductive Reasoning We are interested in Y We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...n We recall: X has properties a, b, c...n We recall: X also has property p

A General Form of Inductive Reasoning We are interested in Y We notice: Y has properties a, b, c...n We recall: X has properties a, b, c...n We recall: X also has property p In our minds, these facts resolve themselves into an argument almost automatically.

A General Form of Inductive Reasoning Premise 1: X has properties a, b, c...n Premise 2: Y has properties a, b, c...n Premise 3: X also has property p Conclusion: Y has property p

A General Form of Inductive Reasoning Premise 1: X has properties a, b, c...n Premise 2: Y has properties a, b, c...n Premise 3: X also has property p Conclusion: Y has property p This is obviously an inconclusive argument, but sometimes this amount of evidence is all we have to go on.

The Bottom Line For All Inductive Reasoning Is the conclusion of the argument more likely to be true than its contradictory?

The Bottom Line For All Inductive Reasoning Is the conclusion of the argument more likely to be true than its contradictory? THIS IS IMPORTANT!