L AND USE TARGETS MEGHAN O’BRIEN 24 November 2014 FOEE: P UTTING R ESOURCE EFFICIENCY BACK ON THE AGENDA Land as a resource – More of the same?

Wuppertal Institute C ONTENTS  Why land use targets?  What are the targets?  What are the implications? Based on UNEP (2014). Assessing Global Land Use: Balancing Consumption with Sustainable Supply. A Report of the Working Group on Land and Soils of the International Resource Panel. Bringezu S., Schütz H., Pengue W., O´Brien M., Garcia F., Sims R., Howarth R., Kauppi L., Swilling M., and Herrick J. More information:

Wuppertal Institute W HY LAND USE TARGETS  Two key challenges  How land is used  How much land is used

Wuppertal Institute  Habitat change is an important driver of biodiversity loss Main direct drivers of change in biodiversity and ecosystems Source: MEA 2005 Source: MEA (2005) W HY LAND USE TARGETS ? I MPACTS OF LAND USE CHANGE

Wuppertal Institute W HY LAND USE TARGETS  Two key challenges  How land is used  How much land is used  Take global implications of European consumption into account  EU is import dependent, has disproportionally high consumption levels, and future demands could further increase EU land footprints

Wuppertal Institute Van der Sleen 2009 Von Witzke & Noleppa 2011 Bringezu et al Bruckner et al Arto et al EU-27, 2005 EU-27, 2007, EU-27, 2007/8 EU-27, 2007 EU-27, ha / cap EU cropland footprints EU cropland area, ha /cap 2011 Global cropland footprint, ha / cap W HY LAND USE TARGETS ? C ROPLAND FOOTPRINTS

Wuppertal Institute W HY LAND USE TARGETS  Two key challenges  How land is used  How much land is used  Take global implications of European consumption into account  EU is import dependent, has disproportionally high consumption levels, and future demands could further increase EU land footprints  Impacts abroad are related to global challenges  Policy visions

Wuppertal Institute EU Bioeconomy Strategy  “The Bioeconomy Strategy and its Action Plan aim to pave the way to a more innovative, resource efficient and competitive society that reconciles food security with the sustainable use of renewable resources for industrial purposes, while ensuring environmental protection.” Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe  “By 2050 the EU's economy has grown in a way that respects resource constraints and planetary boundaries, thus contributing to global economic transformation. Our economy is competitive, inclusive and provides a high standard of living with much lower environmental impacts.” Sustainable Development Goals (Open Working Group Proposal, July 2014)  Goal 12: ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns  Goal 15: protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss W HY LAND USE TARGETS ? P OLICY VISIONS AND TARGETS

Wuppertal Institute W HY LAND USE TARGETS  Two key challenges  How land is used  How much land is used  Take global implications of European consumption into account  EU is import dependent, has disproportionally high consumption levels, and future demands could further increase EU land footprints  Impacts abroad are related to global challenges  Policy visions  In order to realize the visions, metrics for monitoring and targets for orientation are needed  Land is finite  How much land can be sustainably used for production and consumption?

Wuppertal Institute Source: Rockström et al Estimate of quantitative evolution of control variables for seven planetary boundaries from pre- industrial level to the present  Based on the safe operating space concept  How much more land use change can occur before the risk of irreversible damages becomes unacceptable?  In particular regarding biodiversity loss  Modeling results show that to halt biodiversity loss agricultural land needs to, at least, stabilize from 2020 (Van Vuuren and Faber 2009) W HAT ARE THE TARGETS

Wuppertal Institute  A cautious global target would be to halt the expansion of global cropland into grasslands, savannahs and forests by 2020  Implies business-as-usual can “safely” continue until 2020 Reference value: around 1,640 Mha available for supplying demand in ha / person Target of 0.20 ha of cropland (1,970 m 2 ) per person in 2030 W HAT ARE THE TARGETS

Wuppertal Institute W HAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS ?  Reference point for consumption  Raise awareness: 2 degree Celsius climate target is an easy-to- communicate directional guide  Prevent problem shifting between planetary boundaries, e.g. “perverse solutions” to meet climate targets  Provide an orientation and rationale for policy intervention:  Consumer level: address food waste, excessive meat consumption, etc.  National level: opportunities of the circular economy; evoke smart market-pull mechanisms to increase efficiency (cascading use; co- production; use of organic waste)  Drive innovation in the right direction (e.g. encourage co-operation across supply chains; provide context for social innovation; etc.)

Wuppertal Institute B ALANCED BIOECONOMY Consumption levelsSafe Operating Space

M ANY T HANKS ! MEGHAN. WUPPERINST. ORG