The winning and losing nations (or Sunrise, Sunset and Serendipity – time to start dropping BRICs) Sixth Gresham Lecture Douglas McWilliams Mercers School.

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Presentation transcript:

The winning and losing nations (or Sunrise, Sunset and Serendipity – time to start dropping BRICs) Sixth Gresham Lecture Douglas McWilliams Mercers School Memorial Professor of Commerce at Gresham College Centre for economics and business research ltd Unit 1, 4 Bath Street, London EC1V 9DX t: f: e: w:

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, To examine which countries are likely to perform relatively better in the changed world and which ones are likely to perform relatively worse Objective

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, The context – previous lectures in the series Sunrise and sunset cycles Time to start dropping BRICs Sunrise economies Sunset economies Serendipity economies Outlook to 2050 The 2013 Budget Overview

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, The sunrise cycle Cheap educated labour Export growth leading to rising GDP High profits High investment Strong productivity growth

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, The sunset cycle Costs cannot compete Weak exports leading to weak GDP Profits squeeze and loss of tax Falling investment Stagnant productivity

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, The misery cycle Competitive wage below welfare level Collapsing employment and GDP Escalating deficits Financial collapse Higher taxes and reduced public services

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, Concept has been very helpful in boosting understanding of globalisation process But increasingly the BRICs economies are becoming too diverse for one category And it mixes those with internal dynamic growth with those who just got lucky with high energy or mineral prices At the moment with energy and minerals prices high, both groups have had rapid growth in spending power But in the future, these prices – though on average rising – will not rise further by as much and energy prices could even drop beyond 2020 Time to start dropping BRICs

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, The world economic league table

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, China India Indonesia Korea Mexico Turkey Taiwan Thailand Nigeria Sri Lanka Sunrise economies

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, US Japan Europe Sunset economies

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, Russia Brazil Canada Australia Saudi Arabia Serendipity economies

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, Ethnic composition of US population forecast for Foreign born1219 White6747 Hispanic1429 Black13 Asian59 Source: Pew Research Centre

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, World outlook for GDP for large economies Billions of US dollars, current prices at market exchange rates

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, Some cuts in current spending (may be more than seems because of need to absorb higher NI charges) Extra spending on infrastructure Housing market package Rise in personal allowance for income tax Cut in corporation tax NIC allowance for expanding small businesses Potential major monetary policy reforms Revised inflation remit for MPC The main Budget measures

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, Unrealistic hopes of a quick Eurozone recovery persist Eurozone real gross domestic product, annual percentage change

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, OBR still looks too optimistic on growth in the medium-term ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UK real gross domestic product, annual percentage change

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, Borrowing in 2017/18 to be £30 billion higher than forecast by the OBR… PUBLIC FINANCES Public sector net borrowing, £ billion, financial year

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, … with the debt:GDP ratio rising above 90% PUBLIC FINANCES Net debt as a percentage of GDP, fiscal years

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, £10,000 personal allowance to boost real disposable income growth ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Income tax (£) paid by someone with a gross yearly income of £25,000

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, Corporation tax rate reduced even further UK corporation tax - main rate PUBLIC FINANCES

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, Small businesses to benefit from employment allowance 21 Number of enterprises by employment size, 2011, thousands PUBLIC FINANCES

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, Help to buy scheme launched to support new and existing home purchases Approvals of loans for home purchases, thousands PUBLIC FINANCES

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, New MPC remit could pave the way for medium-term interest rate commitments Bank of England Bank Rate, percentage MONETARY POLICY

© Centre for economics and business research ltd, Long term borrowing rates to rise but remain extremely low Yield on 10 year government bonds, percentage MONETARY POLICY Forecast

The winning and losing nations (or Sunrise, Sunset and Serendipity – time to start dropping BRICs) Douglas McWilliams, Mercers’ School Memorial Professor of Commerce at Gresham College and Chief Executive of Cebr