Higher Education in New Hampshire and the Economy Ross Gittell James R. Carter Professor Whittemore School of Business and Economics University of New Hampshire

Topics High education, per capita income and high technology …”The New Hampshire Way” Supply of and demand for the college educated in New Hampshire The economic argument for investment in higher education in New Hampshire Looking Forward

Over the last decade NH ranks 11 th of 50 states and 1 st in Northeast in employment growth. NH has the 6 th highest per capita income in the US (2003)..income rank improved from 25 th three decades ago

New Hampshire’s Strong Economic Recovery From Early 2000s Recession Total Employment NH …Jan04-Jan05 Total employment grew 2.9% compared to US average of 1.6% (NH ranked 8 th highest) Other fast growing states are Nevada, Arizona and Florida which have much lower per capita income Services employment grew 5% compared to US average of 1.7% (ranked 8 th ) High Tech Employment in NH..June 03 to June % growth, NH ranked 4 highest big turnaround from “tech bust” decline of more than 1/3 rd and ranked 50 th.. NH reliant economy..shift within high tech to growth sectors from commodity manufacturing… growth in engineering and life sciences R&D, engineering services and testing labs and cable and other program distribution

The Education Advantage: Educational Attainment and High Technology Employment Concentration

Educational Attainment (% of adults with a 4-year college degree) has a strong positive correlation with per capita income across the 50 states. NH is in the top tier…

10 NH Counties Correlation: Higher Education and Income

The Supply Side of College- Educated Labor in New Hampshire

NH “Imported” in a High Tech/High Per Capita Income Economy NH attracting skilled workers and entrepreneurs for many reasons (3 of 4 adults with Bachelors+ were born in another state) Unique Quality and Character of Life Mountains and Seacoast Strong Communities (social capital) New England History and Character Ranked First in Nation Favorable Tax Climate (as percent of income) Safest State (crimes per capita) Lowest Poverty Rate Ranked Among Top 3 in US Child and Family Well Being (Casey, 2003) Healthiest State (Morgan Quitno, 2003) Most Livable State (Morgan Quitno, 2003)

BUT …State-wide New Hampshire Domestic In-Migration is Slowing In-migration increased at annual rate of 17%, Grew at 4% rate in late 1990s Expected to decline 5% per year (New England Economic Project) There are recognized concerns about too much growth and the effect of significant in-migration on sprawl and the character/culture of New Hampshire There is an economic need and social value in focusing on educating “our own.”

Who will work in high tech industries in the future? Age distribution of BA/BS holders in NH compared to other NE states and US… o lder workers near retirement more likely to have college degree than entry level aged

Big decline in percent change in as baby boomer generation ages in NH and US and retires

The Demand-Side: Higher Education and the economy Nearly 2 of every 3 new jobs in US and NH will require some college education While less than 1 of 3 adults currently have college degree in NH

“Even in Coos County”….“BA+” Occupational Employment 2000 to 2010 demand is significant

Demand-Side Model: Assumptions (all can be varied) Average tenure in occupation is 20 or 25 years (or 5 or 4 percent turnover per annum) One-third of all Bachelors requiring jobs in NH will be filled by people with out of state degrees In-state degree graduates staying to work in state public (70% or 60%) and private (40% and 30%) High Demand assumes high turnover and low in- state-retention. Low Demand assumes low turnover and high retention. “Mean” demand is the average of High and Low.

NH Occupations requiring a Bachelors

Business and Related Occupations

Education

Health and related occupations

Information occupations

Engineering occupations

Social, Community & Arts Occupations

“Crosswalk” assumptions..

Degree areas in NH projections. Biggest percent gaps in Information sciences, Education, Health and Engineering/Sciences and Math – all need a 50 percent or higher increase in degrees

The Economic Case for investment in higher education

Public $ Returns on Investment in Higher Education in NH

Traditional Aged Students With Limited Access to Higher Education in NH Counties.. the data contrasts with aspirations of surveyed NH HS seniors.. 67% of females and 55% of males to 4-year college

Economic Opportunity..reduce the loss from low HS matriculation to 4-year college in some counties Each HS Graduating Class “shortcoming” in graduates going to college results in loss of $10 million dollars a year in the state With multiplier effects in economy …each (20 year) generation loss from low matriculation to 4- year colleges is about $.5B or 1 percent of the state’s overall economy

Looking Forward… “other” areas to focus efforts

Non-Traditional Students 165,000 adults report their highest level of education as some college 50,000 (or 30% in survey) indicated that they expect to obtain a college degree in next five years

Female under-representation in tech-fields … a problem and an opportunity in NH

Graduate Education matters…NH at “bottom” of “elite” states with high per capita income and high % adults with graduate degrees

WSBE Freshman Profile: Exploring the “Brain Drain” Introduction to Business Classes at UNH

Survey Respondents 85 percent of all students in the course

Equal percentages have none, one and two parents who are college graduates

Forty percent were born in New Hampshire

54 percent graduated from NH High School (1 of 7 moved into the state during their childhood)

3/4ths said they are likely to go on to graduate school

Only about 1/3 rd said they are likely to work in NH after graduation.. Compared to just less than 50 percent of NH High School senior students surveyed

Work in NH after graduation and WSBE Option Preference: Accounting students most likely to stay in state (46%), International Business students least likely (13%)

Where do students plan to work after 10 ten years of employment? Most (1/3rd) expect to work in MA followed by NH (22%). Over ½ plan to work in New England, 1/10 th in NY followed by California. Less than 4 percent expect to work abroad.

Looking Forward.. The future of the NH economy depends on investment and attainment in education The state can no longer rely on in-migrants to support a high tech, high income economy Significant “returns” can come with: -- increasing matriculation rates of traditional students -- programs to improve access and delivery to non- traditional students -- science, math and engineering and related degrees and increasing female representation in these fields -- increasing graduate education -- retaining more students who go to school in state to work in the economy