Anne Fairbrother Branch Chief August 2003 Anne Fairbrother Branch Chief August 2003 Risk Characterization Branch

Branch Mission Determine the effects of anthropogenic stressors such as pesticides on plant communities and wildlife populations, and on the structure, function and quality of terrestrial habitats that support wildlife

Pesticides  Chemical herbicides  GM crops Terrestrial Habitats  Spatially explicit models for wildlife populations Chemical insecticidesChemical insecticides Other stressorsOther stressors  Terrestrial habitat and ecosystem models Pesticides & Terrestrial Habitats

Pesticide Project 1. Assess Risks From Transgenic Crops Design ecological, molecular effects studies Determine Effects of Chemical Herbicides on Terrestrial Plants Develop Regional Analysis and Interpretation Tools Identify Uncertainty and Knowledge Gaps Develop Spatially Explicit Risk Assessment Model Provide web-based tool for assessment activities Improve plant selection process Improve plant test guidelines Provide Input to Eco- system Response Tests Develop Mode of Action Studies / Molecular Biology Tools OPP, OPPT Research Needs ORD Multi-Year Plan Develop Tests for Reproductive / Developmental Endpoints WED Research Goals Determine Ecological Effects of Gene Flow from Transgenic Crops Develop Molecular Methods Develop molecular methods to asses gene flow Assess ecological effects of exposure to transgenic genes Evaluate Spatial Databases, GIS Platform Develop Probabilistic Systems Modeling Methods and Protocols Conduct case Studies Hold International Workshop Conduct Gene Flow Studies WED Research Objectives WED Research Approach 2. Improve Methods for Spatially Explicit Risk Assessments 3. Develop New Methods for Gathering Herbicide Dose- Response Data 4. Investigate Potential Effects of High Priority Hazards LTG 3 Develop Scientific Basis to Reduce Risks LTG 4 Develop Information on Novel New Hazards Develop Regionally Based Species Selection Process Conduct Greenhouse/ Field Studies Conduct Greenhouse/ Growth Chamber/Field Ecological Studies Provide Inputs for Prototype Model

Current Tier 1 and 2 tests use 10 different crop plants Current Tier 1 and 2 tests use 10 different crop plants No non-crop plants are required No non-crop plants are required WED/RCB working with EFED to update the requirements for plant testing and risk assessment WED/RCB working with EFED to update the requirements for plant testing and risk assessment EPA registers all pesticides for specific uses EPA registers all pesticides for specific uses Responsible for determining potential risk to nontarget plants Responsible for determining potential risk to nontarget plants Pesticides chemical herbicides Chemical Herbicides

Web-based GIS supportWeb-based GIS support  Crop: plant community – wind – other risk factors Locally-relevant test speciesLocally-relevant test species  Bioassay development Spatially explicit probabilistic risk methodsSpatially explicit probabilistic risk methods Chemical Herbicides regional approach to Ecological Risk Assessment Chemical Herbicides

Native Plants Wind Patterns Herbicide Use Chemical Herbicides Crop Location

Current Test Species CornCorn SoybeanSoybean CarrotCarrot OnionOnion BeetBeet Sugar beetSugar beet TomatoTomato CucumberCucumber LettuceLettuce CabbageCabbage OatOat Perennial ryegrassPerennial ryegrass Proposed Test Species CropsCrops ForbsForbs Wood plantsWood plants GrassesGrasses Determined from GIS analysis of crop location plus risk factors Chemical Herbicides

Test Protocols Sensitive endpointsSensitive endpoints  especially reproduction Optimal growth conditionsOptimal growth conditions Perennial species life cycle testsPerennial species life cycle tests Chemical Herbicides

Use of GM crops rapidly increasing in past 5 yearsUse of GM crops rapidly increasing in past 5 years Growing concerns about potential ecol. risks of gene flow from crops to resident speciesGrowing concerns about potential ecol. risks of gene flow from crops to resident species Little data and no established methods to assess these risksLittle data and no established methods to assess these risks GM Crops & Gene Flow

Evaluating Gene Flow from GM Crops

Gene Flow Example

Field studyField study  Round-up resistant bent grass  Pollen flow  Seed dispersal GM Crops & Gene Flow Approach

Field studyField study  Round-up resistant bent grass  Pollen flow  Seed dispersal MicrocosmsMicrocosms  Artificial communities  Bent grass and canola  Fitness effects of transgene transfer GM Crops & Gene Flow Approach

Field studyField study  Round-up resistant bent grass  Pollen flow  Seed dispersal MicrocosmsMicrocosms  Artificial communities  Bent grass and canola  Fitness effects of transgene transfer Greenhouse & labGreenhouse & lab  Gene transfer possibility  Gene expression  Fitness effects GM Crops & Gene Flow approach

Terrestrial Habitats

Spatially Explicit Wildlife Models Integrate direct and indirect effects of pesticidesIntegrate direct and indirect effects of pesticides Population level endpointsPopulation level endpoints Probabilistic risk assessmentsProbabilistic risk assessments

PATCH Program to Assist Tracking Critical Habitat Originally developed to assess effects of amount of habitat changeOriginally developed to assess effects of amount of habitat change  Alternative futures project Adapting model to include change in habitat qualityAdapting model to include change in habitat quality  Insecticide applications

PATCH Program to Assist Tracking Critical Habitat Model developmentModel development Hypothetical landscapesHypothetical landscapes Empirical studyEmpirical study  Bluebirds in Willamette Valley Life history database developmentLife history database development  Reproduction, mortality, dispersal rates for birds

Dynamic Landscapes Modeling Stressor Effects on Habitat & Wildlife in a Managed Forest Landscape

Multiple, Interacting Stessors Biogeochemistry Model (GEM) Plant Community Model (FORCLIM) Wildlife Model (PATCH) Population Changes Habitat Models Tree growth model (TREGRO) Dynamic Landscapes

GEM General Ecosystem Model BiogeochemistryBiogeochemistry  N – C - water Predicts amount of biomass production under differing environmental scenariosPredicts amount of biomass production under differing environmental scenarios Predicts C and N output to streams & soil retentionPredicts C and N output to streams & soil retention

TREGRO & FORCLIM TREGROTREGRO  Physiologically based model to predict individual tree growth as a function of stress FORCLIMFORCLIM  Forest stand model to predict changes in species composition as a function of stress to individual trees

Integrated Models for Predicting Wildlife Effects

BLM’s Mission is Critical