Москва 2011 Macroeconomic background for S&T forecast International workshop “Long-term S&T forecast” IRU-HSE, 2011

ЦМАКП 2 1. Why «economy-centric»? General government expenditures* * Non-interest gen.gov-t expenditures minus pension and capital expenditures of the budget

1.3. The need for clear priorities Расходы на R&D expenditures 2009 (PPP USD bn) R&D workforce 2009 (‘000 work years) R&D expenditure per researcher 2009 (‘000 PPP USD) * R&D expenditure data. 1. Why «economy-centric»? Upfront “pro rata” R&D financing raise as existing R&D institutions’ research profiles are conserved would only deepen dispersion of funding and unlikely to achieve any “quantum leaps” In research quality. Upfront “pro rata” R&D financing raise as existing R&D institutions’ research profiles are conserved would only deepen dispersion of funding and unlikely to achieve any “quantum leaps” In research quality

Sources of R&D funding 2009 (%) 1. Why «economy-centric»? We do not expect significant budget R&D expenditure raises. Therefore, new funding can only come from private sector. This implies a change in existing research objectives (and research profiles) towards private demand both for applied and, in part, for fundamental science. We do not expect significant budget R&D expenditure raises. Therefore, new funding can only come from private sector. This implies a change in existing research objectives (and research profiles) towards private demand both for applied and, in part, for fundamental science.

Economic impact (growth of hi-tech exports) of Russian R&D expenditures is insufficient relative to other countries 1. Why «economy-centric»?

ЦМАКП 6 Developing methodology stage 1 (2011) Estimate model inputs stage 2 (2011) Tentative forecast Stage 3 (2012) Tentative forecast Stage 3 (2012) Long-term industry development potential forecasts Stage 4 (2012) Long-term industry development potential forecasts Stage 4 (2012) «Macro-driven» S&T and innovation forecast Stage 5 (2013) «Macro-driven» S&T and innovation forecast Stage 5 (2013) Final stage macroeconomic forecast Stage 6 (2013) Final stage macroeconomic forecast Stage 6 (2013) Industry forecasts S&T forecasts Tentative industry forecasts Final stage industry forecasts Updated S&T forecasts World economic policies forecasts Long-term cycle S&T forecasts World economy and geopolitical forecasts CMASFPartners 2. Our research plan

Payroll (PPP USD.) 3. Our goals: solutions to labour productivity problem Labour productivity (2011 = 100, “first-best” scenario)

3. Our goals: solutions to energy efficiency problem Electricity cost (cent/kWh) and mtoe-per-dollar-of-GDP energy intensity index (2011=100)

3. Our goals: search for new sources of economic growth GDP growth components (average growth rates, %, “baseline no-policy” scenario)

Exports commodity structure (%) 3. Our goals: export potential Export growth potential, forecasts by industry (2030/2011, times)

3. Our goals: replacing imports Import elasticity to domestic demand components