Wargaming As A Value-Added Approach to Collaboration (831) Andy Hernandez Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army Director of Wargaming, U.S. Naval Postgraduate School Military Faculty, Operations Research Department

Purpose Offer wargaming as a mechanism for the International Maritime Security Enterprise to collaborate on critical issues.

Agenda Wargaming Overview Maritime Security and Wargaming NPS Wargaming Possible Tools

Definitions war game: Webster 1. An often physical or electronic simulation of a military operation involving two or more forces and using rules, data, and procedures designed to depict an actual or assumed situation. 2. A simulation of a proposed plan of action or a strategy, intended to test its validity when challenged. wargame: DoD A simulation, by whatever means, of a military operation involving two or more opposing forces, … using rules, data and procedures designed to depict an actual or assumed real life situation. war game: Military modeling; Campaign Analysis Course A war game is a model [of warfare] involving one or more players.

The Purpose of Wargames Wargames played for two general purposes: –Educational  Experience –Analytical  Information Educational: –Goal: provide decision makers experience; training –Enhance command and staff decision making ability –Understand conditions that affect decision making process –Examples: Obtain and receive impressions about merits of operational plan, command structures, forces, weapon systems, area of operation Develop procedures to incorporate new system into operations Analytical –Goal: collect information and data for decision making –Emphasis on factors that impact conditions in decision making process –Example: Count the number of target detections that a specific distribution of UAVs in a force structure

Wargaming Uses Understand the nature of war; the processes of combat Wargames do not compute the outcomes of processes Organizing tool: –Design process ties operational focus of participants –Understand player interactions in game –Translate player knowledge into concrete terms Exploratory tool: –Understand effects of operations on human decisions –Understand effects of human decisions on operations –Incorporates randomness and unquantifiable factors –Identifies possible sources of unquantifiable factors

Maritime Security & Wargaming Perceived Intent: –Initiate joint projects –Involve multinational agencies –Allow accessibility without compromising security –Develop processes, protocols, policies …that allows international operations Current Status: –Technological collaboration initiated and ongoing –Operational collaboration an open issue Collaborative Event: –Proof of concept –Meaningful exercise

NPS Wargaming Vision Teach how wargaming can be a supporting branch to DoD, international, civilian and governmental exercises and research initiatives. Provide students practical experience to understand its potential, limitations, and applications. Grow a wargaming capability that is value-added.

Wargaming Efforts Incorporated into Operations Research Curriculum –OA4604: Wargaming Analysis –Open to all Services and International students –Offer to MOVES, Systems Engineering, Defense Analysis, Information Sciences, School for International Graduate Studies Considered support for NPS research efforts –Maritime Domain Awareness Initiative –Joint Battle Management Command & Control –Joint IED Defeat Task Force Facilitator for student events and theses –Gap analysis –CONOPS development for Integrated Student Projects –Excursions on past studies –Comprehension/Education of important operations Ad Hoc support

NPS Wargaming Infrastructure Organization and Staff –Proponent: Dean GSOIS –Wargaming Committee Chairman: Director of Research, Meyer Institute Director Stakeholders: On and Off-Campus –Matrix (Cells) approach through stakeholders –Technicians through Information Technology department Key Resource: students Partnerships & Habitual Relationships –Air Force Institute of Technology –Temasek Defence Systems Institute –Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories Facilities & Equipment –Wargaming Labs: Unclassified and Classified –M&S: JCATS, MTWS, web-enabled JTLS –Future Plans: Agent-based models

Leaning Forward in the Foxhole Genesis: integrated student project Port Security Scenarios: –Small boat attack on port –Lear jet as a missile –Inland attack on port facilities and personnel Blue Water Scenarios: –Small boat attack on ship –Piracy Purpose: –Examine procedures for mitigating attacks if new systems involved –Educate new personnel; Share lessons –Conduct excursions On-Station Tool: Current database built in Joint Conflict and Tactical Simulation (JCATS) Collaborative Tool: in progress to develop scenarios in web-enabled Joint Theater Level Simulation (JTLS)

A Web-Enabled JTLS Event PACOM exercise recently completed a fully web- enabled JTLS operation Servers and Clients: –Server: JFCOM Facilities, Virginia –Over 100 clients connected through web –Players in… Camp Smith, HI Okinawa, Japan Hurlburt Airfield, FL Other Simulations in Exercise: –EADSIM, JDLM, TBMCS, … –HLA connection JCATS and JTLS are federated

Brief History of JTLS JTLS: Joint Theater Level Simulation Military Use: –Proponent: Joint Warfighting Center, JFCOM –Provides the COP and is primary tool for major exercises –Used in one or more exercises in many Combatant Commands –Main use in theater-level exercises International Tool: –Over a dozen countries other than the U.S. own JTLS, including Malaysia, Thailand, Japan, and Australia –Hold coalition exercises annually –Established investments, buy-in, and credibility

JTLS Functionality Models All Major Air, Naval, & Land Operations Models Intel, Logistics, All Non-Combat Operations Time Stepped, Event Driven, Inherently Interactive Includes Stochastic and Deterministic Events Analysis: Forces, Oplans, New Systems, Etc. Designed for Distributed Play With Many Players Run on Single Laptop or Support a Major Exercise Designed for Multi-sided, Coalition Operations

Pliable Force Structure Maximum of 10 Sides –Each unit belongs to a side –Each side has both a command and a support hierarchy –Player-defined Relationships with other sides Enemy, Suspect, Friend, Neutral Not necessarily symmetric All units on a side share perception of the opposing side Number of Factions on each side is almost limitless. –Units on each side are divided into Factions –Factions share common capabilities IFF capability, Organic asset intel collection capability Susceptibility to PSYOPS, Supply Convoy attributes Many other capability factors Units can change Factions Factions can change sides ROEs: Fire, Hold Fire, No Fire –Not necessarily the same for all units on a Side –Area-specific, Unit specific, Mission specific, etc.

Force Side Relationships Red Forces Blue Forces Orange Forces White Forces Non-Symmetric Based on Perceptions Non-Symmetric Based on Perceptions Enemy Suspect Enemy Friend Neutral Friend Enemy Reflects Real World Complexities Reflects Real World Complexities Friend AFFECTS FORCE INTERACTIONS Coalition Air Operations Joint Naval Operations Lanchester Combat Coalition Logistics Sharing Intelligence Others AFFECTS FORCE INTERACTIONS Coalition Air Operations Joint Naval Operations Lanchester Combat Coalition Logistics Sharing Intelligence Others

Moving Forward Determine if a collaborative event is desired and warranted: cost benefit analysis Understand the objectives that the event may address Scale the event or events Identify key players Consider enabling tools that can assist the effort Plan and coordinate

Summary Wargaming is an approach that can assist the International Maritime Security Enterprise address interoperability issues.