COMPENSATED REDUCTION OF DEFORESTATION IPAM - AMAZON INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH COP 10, Buenos Aires Dialogue on Future with Socioambiental Institute, Brazil Center for Meteorology and Climate Studies, Brazil Environmental Defense, USA Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, USA Presented by Marcio Santilli (IPAM; ISA)

Global CO2 Emissions Dialogue on Future Global C Emission: ~75% Fossil Fuel ~25% Land Deforestation

Global CO2 Emissions Dialogue on Future

THE CASE OF BRAZILIAN AMAZONIA Dialogue on Future

Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia 2003 Fonte: INPE PRODES Digital, Deforestation 2002/2003 Deforestation until millions ha deforested 16% of Brazilian Amazonia Amazon Basin 5.3 million km 2 1/3 world’s remaining tropical forest 30 % world’s flora and fauna

Deforestation: Yellow Non-Forest: Gray Blank areas : not availableimage Blank areas : not available image Deforestation in Rondonia State 1986: ~2.8 millions ha Main Road

Deforestation: Yellow Non-Forest: Gray Blank areas: not availableimage Blank areas: not available image Deforestation in Rondonia State 1992: ~3.6 millions ha

Deforestation: Yellow Non-Forest: Gray Blank areas : not processed image Deforestation in Rondonia State 1996: ~ 4.8 millions ha

BrazilIndonesia Dialogue on Future

Deforestation in the Future Fonte: INPE PRODES Digital, Deforestation 2002/2003 Deforestation until 2002

Business-as-usual

Forest Fire Emission: 0.2 PgC

Deforestation and Logging Evapotranspiration Reduction RAIN REDUCTION Forest Flammability Increase Forest Fire Increase EL NIÑO Investments on infra-structure Global Warming CO 2 Dialogue on Future

The control of deforestation to obtain compensation Is it possible to control deforestation? If yes, how? Dialogue on Future

Examples of How to Control Deforestation? The Case of Mato Grosso State Environmental Control System on Rural Properties (Program of License and Control Deforestation) Environmental Control System on Rural Properties (Program of License and Control Deforestation) Dialogue on Future New Approach 1.Focus on large properties (>500 ha) in critical areas; 2.Obligation for registry of properties 3.Emphasis on environmental assets 4.Use of information technology 5.Simplified licensing

Examples of How to Control Deforestation? Dialogue on Future Obligation for registry of properties: the owners must present details about their property informing their identification and address before to receive the registry Results ( ): 25% Reduction of deforestation compared to the deforestation trends of other states and to the last years Emission reduced 36 MTC Source: Fearnside & Barbosa (2003): World Resource Review GDP Growth: 8%/yr Cost of Program (US$ 3 million/yr ( )

Examples of How to Control Deforestation? The National Program to Control Deforestation Dialogue on Future New Approach 1.The Control Program is under responsibility of 12 ministries; 2.Unrestricted availability of deforestation data to society 3.Deforestation in public forest became environmental crime 4.Deforestation monitoring in real time 5.Emphasis on land tenure and illegal appropriation of public land Estimated Cost of Program (~US$ 130 millions )

Deforestation monitoring in real time

Deforestation from 13/Aug/2003 to 07/May/204 Modis Image 07/May/2004

Deforestation 13/Aug/2003 to 07/May/2004 Deforestation in 13/Aug/2003 (yellow) + deforestation from 13/Aug/2003 to 07/may/2004 (red)

Deforestation verified between 13/Aug/2003 e 21/May/2004 Deforestation in 13/Aug/2003 (yellow) + deforestation from 13/Aug/2003 to 07/May/2004 (red) + deforestation in 21/May/2004 (orange) Modis Mosaic 21/May/2004

Deforestation verified between 21/May/2004 and 08/Jun/2004 Deforestation in 13/Aug/2003 (yellow) + deforestation from 13/Aug/2003 to 07/May/2004 (red) + deforestation from 21/May/2004 (orange) + deforestation in 08/Jun/2004 (blue) Modis Mosaic 21/May/2004 ATUALIZATION : fifteen days later

BRAZILINAN INITIATIVES RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE PROÁLCOOL (20% of methanol added to gasoline) PROÁLCOOL (20% of methanol added to gasoline) Flexpower cars (use any combination of methanol and gasoline) Flexpower cars (use any combination of methanol and gasoline) PROINFA (Program for renewable energy: from 3,1% of total 2004 to 5,9% in 2006). BIODIESEL (PROGRAM OF VEGETAL FUEL PRODUCTION) PROINFA (Program for renewable energy: from 3,1% of total 2004 to 5,9% in 2006). BIODIESEL (PROGRAM OF VEGETAL FUEL PRODUCTION) PROAMBIENTE (ENVIRONMENTAL CREDITS FOR FARMERS)PROAMBIENTE (ENVIRONMENTAL CREDITS FOR FARMERS) PROARCO (FIRE PREVENTION IN AMAZONIA) PROARCO (FIRE PREVENTION IN AMAZONIA) PROTEGER/GTA PROTEGER/GTA NATIONAL PROGRAM TO CONTROL AMAZONIAN DEFORESTATION NATIONAL PROGRAM TO CONTROL AMAZONIAN DEFORESTATION NATIONAL PROGRAM FOR FORESTRY NATIONAL PROGRAM FOR FORESTRY Dialogue on Future

2050 Business as Usual Scenario : Deforested 2,698,735 km 2 (16 PgC release by 2050) Forest 3,320,409 km 2 Non-forest 1,497,685 km km Soares-Filho et al Dialogue on Future

2050 Governance Scenario: Deforested 1,655,734 km 2 (Reduction: 40%) Forest 4,363,410 km 2 Non-forest1,497,685 km km Dialogue on Future

Tropical Forest and Climate Change Dialogue on Future Under the Protocol at present … forests treated as “sinks” – native forests seen as insignificant to the stability of the climate system and confused with tree plantations. developing countries have no incentives to reduce or avoid emissions from deforestation (25% of global GHG emissions) Tropical forests are not considered, but northern forests (Article 3.3) and plantations (CDM) are credited HOW TO ADDRESS EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTION?

Compensated Reduction of Deforestation Dialogue on Future Concept for non-project based reduction of tropical deforestation emissions 1.Baseline derived from average annual deforestation for 1980’s (using satellite imagery) for tropical countries. 2.Tropical countries that elect to reduce their national emissions from deforestation below baseline during a commitment period, and demonstrate success, authorized to issue “carbon certificates” post facto ( IPCC could establish common criteria for baselines and equivalence between deforestation and carbon stocks ). 3.These countries agree not to increase (or to further reduce) deforestation in subsequent commitment periods. 4.Baseline revised after 20yrs. 5.Only a portion of the certificates might be valid for offsets in first period. Others could be valid for second and subsequent commitment periods.

Compensated Reduction of Deforestation Source: INPE 2003 * Decade mean ** Biennium mean Baseline: km 2 Reduction of Deforestation % reduction of deforestation = ~ 5% Avoided Emission: mean of 12 Million Tons C/yr Dialogue on Future

Photo by Patrick McFeeley Thank you !