The Social and Economic Impacts of the Ebola Virus Disease in Africa Implications for Africa’s Integration and Transformation

The need for an assessment Meaningful full assessment can only be done once the outbreak is contained The assessment shall Contribute to the dissemination of country- based primary information on the epidemic and its implications Support ongoing economic and social planning efforts that accompany the current health response Contribute to the preparation of countries’ policy responses for the post epidemic recovery Short term Medium and long term

Understanding the Continental Consequences of the Ebola Outbreak ECA will position the current Ebola outbreak in a continental context and assess the social and economic impact that it can have on Africa’s integration and transformation The purpose is to analyze prospectively the ripples that the pandemic can have on productive sectors, social protection, health and educational outcomes, beyond the immediate impact in lives

A Gap Assessment on Knowledge Study and geographical focus Dimensions/variables covered MethodologyResults World Bank - Economic impact the 3 affected countries; short term and medium term study -GDP; -fiscal effect/financing gap; - inflation; -investment; - capital flight; exchange rate Sector components Model which allows experimenting with various scenarios (e.g. low Ebola and high Ebola) Ebola led to downward revision of the 2014 growth of Liberia (from 5.9% to 2.5%), Sierra Leone (from 11.3% to 8%) and Guinea (from 4.5% to 2.4%). The growth prospects for 2015, respectively, are -4.9%, 3% and 2%. UNDP (Sierra Leone / Guinea Economic and social impact Narrative analysis (Sierra Leone) of several sectors Multisectoral Consequences WHO (the affected countries; 9 months of Ebola and projection to November 2014) Health and health systems (New England J. of Medicine) Forecasting tools 70.8% fatality rate; If not treated the # of Ebola cases will be 20,000 in all countries. World Association of Universities - West Africa Impact on higher education Data from various universities for descriptive analysis -negative for the higher education sector; Knowledge workers are being withdrawn. The Economist (Ebola’s economic impact-September 3) Health, education, trade and growth - GDP declines, food shortage, supply of teachers decreases, decline in savings, investment/capital accumulation WFP (Rapid Assessment)- SenegalTradeRapid appraisal 50% drop in cross-border trade, fruit and palm oil no longer available on border markets with Guinea CDC (estimating the scale of EVD)Prevalence of EVD Computational and other modelling tools 8,000 cases in S. Leone; `16,000 cases in Liberia; 550,000 cases without intervention; 1.4million by January FDC (finance derivatives company)- making economic sense of Ebola Tourism; Aviation ; Health; Agriculture

Economic Consequences Social Consequences Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak Increased Morbidity Increased Mortality Increased Pressure on Health Systems Not tending to Regular Pathologies – malaria, vaccinations, etc. Incremental Costs to Health Systems Reduced School Attendance Incremental Dropouts Decrease in Educational Outcomes Incremental Costs to Governments and Society Decrease on Health Outcomes Increased Labor Absenteeism Changes in Domestic Consumption Patterns Changes in Production Patterns Agricultural Industry Mining Knowledge Transfer / Meetings Changes in International Consumption Patterns Transport Trade Tourism Household Income, Food and Nutrition Investment Patterns Changes in Capital Flows Migration Africa's Integration and Transformation Cohesion Governance / Security Stigma Risk Perceptions Uncertainty Gender Reduced Outcomes on Social Protection Intra African and Intercontinental Trade

Methodology -Sector Specific Analysis with a Holistic Approach HealthEducation Social Protection LaborTradeAgriculture Financial Flows CommerceGender

Increasing resiliencies from all sectors Priority: focusing on the emergency (current health response) as it will impact all sectors of the economy The need for policy responses in all affected sectors

Collaboration at Several Levels Continental ECA Regional UNDG Country UNDP & Other UN Partners

Time Line September Establishment of Interdivisional TaskForce at ECA October Methodological Development Field Mission November Zero Draft Report December Draft Report AUC Summit January 2015 – Presentation of Initial Results