Private Capital Conference February 24, 2011 Houston, TX A Tale of Two Fuels - Crude Oil and Natural Gas Supply.

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Presentation transcript:

Private Capital Conference February 24, 2011 Houston, TX A Tale of Two Fuels - Crude Oil and Natural Gas Supply

2 BENTEKENERGY.COM Source: ICE Henry Hub Natural Gas vs. WTI Crude

3 BENTEKENERGY.COM Natural Gas vs. Crude Oil Even with natural gas prices below $4.00, production continues at all time highs; prices remain under downward pressure International demand for liquids fuels is increasing, pushing up global crude oil prices Price divergence between gas and oil is shifting the economics of production, demand, processing and transportation in North America This is a structural shift that will drive market changes for years if not decades to come

4 BENTEKENERGY.COM Spot Henry Hub Below $4.00 Source: ICE Avg $8.85 Since 1/1/09 - $4.16 Avg $6.94

5 BENTEKENERGY.COM WTI Crude - $40/bbl to $98/bbl Source: ICE Since 1/1/09 - $40/bbl to $98/bbl

6 BENTEKENERGY.COM Crude-to-Gas Price Ratio Crude prices are high relative to natural gas prices High Crude/Gas ratio

7 BENTEKENERGY.COM Natural Gas and Crude Oil Producers – shift to oil and liquids rich gas plays Buyers – shift to low price gas and plentiful light NGLs Midstream – significant opportunities in processing, gathering and transportation

8 BENTEKENERGY.COM U.S. Production Still on the Rise Source: BENTEK Supply and Demand Report, Dry Production Maintenance & Freeze-offs 2009 Avg. = 56.4 Bcf/d 2010 Avg. = 57.8 Bcf/d 2011ytd Avg. = 58.5 Bcf/d

9 Shale Production Growth Source: BENTEK Production Market Model & Production Monitor Over 7 Bcf/d Growth in 4 Years

10 BENTEKENERGY.COM Barnett PRB Piceance San Juan $4.32 $4.01 $3.80 $5.13 Sub $4.00 Breakevens Drive Resource Plays Haynesville $3.66 Pinedale $2.77 Marcellus $2.94 Eagle Ford $3.42 Source: BENTEK Note: Breakevens computed at 12:1 Crude Ratio and 1:1 NGL Ratio Green Circles Breakeven’s Computed at $80 Crude and 1:3 NGL Ratio Based on 3Q2010 Financials and State Production Data Fayetteville Granite Wash Woodford $4.02 $4.03 $3.84 $2.29 Cana Woodford $1.67 $3.17 $2.86 Horn $4.30 Montney $3.54 WCSB $5.30 $0.92 Bakken $5.00 $0.00 Permian $0.00 $3.17 $3.24

11 BENTEKENERGY.COM Where Did the Gas Go? Coal-to-gas switching Weather Reduced Imports

12 BENPOSIUM Coal Switching Saves the Day 2.80 Bcf/d in 2009 Price Low of $1.96

13 BENTEKENERGY.COM 2010 Hottest Summer in Last 60 Years Note: Population Weighted Cumulative CDD: June-August

14 BENTEKENERGY.COM Winter Demand by Year (Nov. 1 - Feb. 15) Brrrrr…

15 BENTEKENERGY.COM Canadian Net Imports By Region 8.2 Bcf/d 7.0 Bcf/d 8.9 Bcf/d 6.9 Bcf/d Source: BENTEK Canadian Observer and Supply/Demand Report

16 BENTEKENERGY.COM US Supply Long: Lower 48 Production Forecast 9.1% Bcf/d 4.3% Bcf/d Source: BENTEK Forward Curve

17 Source: RigData, BENTEK +218 Not all rigs/basins shown on map, total lower than 884 Active Rig Additions Since Recent Low - May North-South “Liquids” Fairway Developing

18 BENTEKENERGY.COM Historical U.S. Crude Production Source: EIA, Excludes NGLs and Other Liquids

19 BENTEKENERGY.COM Capital Moving to Oil – Bakken Shale Oil Play, MT and ND Horizontal Rigs at All Time High Added 118 Oil Directed Rigs Since May 2009

20 BENTEKENERGY.COM Global Oil Supply Source: EIA

21 BENTEKENERGY.COM Cushing WTI Oversupply? Source: EIA

22 BENTEKENERGY.COM High NGL Prices Natural Gas Liquids prices have historically followed crude prices Relative to natural gas prices, liquids prices have been at high levels

23 BENTEKENERGY.COM U.S. NGL Production – Gas Plants Source: EIA/Bentek NGL Monitor

24 BENTEKENERGY.COM U.S. Ethane Production From Gas Plants – 873 Mb/d in Nov. Source: EIA/Bentek NGL Monitor Producers are shifting budget dollars to high BTU plays Most new processing plants are high ethane yield cryo plants

25 BENTEKENERGY.COM Ethane Supply Overhang? CP Chem, Eastman, DOW Possible New Large Cracker (1,700 MM lbs/yr) Additional Unannounced Projects

26 BENTEKENERGY.COM Even with natural gas prices below $4.00, production continues at all time highs; prices remain under downward pressure International demand for liquids fuels is increasing, pushing up global crude oil prices Price divergence between gas and oil is shifting the economics of production, demand, processing and transportation in North America Winners: Producers with oil & rich gas, Gas Processors, Petchems, Industrial & Other Gas Consumers, Gas Fired Power Generation, Environment Conclusions

27 BENTEKENERGY.COM BENTEK Energy, LLC BENTEK is an energy market analytics company, focused on the natural gas market and related energy sectors. E. Russell Braziel Castle Court, Ste. 200 Evergreen, CO Office: