Development Benefits of Equity Markets Countries with more liquid stock markets enjoy faster growth rates of real per capita GDP over subsequent decades Stimulate employment: 92% of a typical U.S. company’s employment growth comes post-IPO Critical to the development of venture equity financing Innovations that lower equity trading costs lower the cost of capital to listed companies Dramatically increase the scope for foreign financing Equity investments in developing countries have historically offered a more attractive risk- return profile than debt
Global Trading is Fueling Domestic Exchanges Europe Foreign investors are increasingly trading in local markets, reducing need for companies to list abroad
European ADR vs. Domestic Volumes Nokia ADR volume as % of total underlying value traded Source: ERDesk, Efficient Frontiers, Bloomberg 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Jan-99 Mar-99 May-99 Jul-99 Sep-99 Nov-99 Jan-00 Mar-00 May-00 Jul-00 Sep-00 Nov-00 Jan-01 Mar-01 May-01 Jul-01 Sep-01 Nov-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07
Global Trading is Fueling Domestic Exchanges Europe Latin America Foreign investors are increasingly trading in local markets, reducing need for companies to list abroad
BrazilBrazilian ADRs $550m $3,200m Source: ERDesk, Efficient Frontiers, Comissão de Valores Mobiliários Funds Raised in Brazilian Equity Offerings
Brazilian ADR vs. Domestic Volumes Source: ERDesk, Efficient Frontiers, Bloomberg, BVMF3
Latam ADR vs. Brazilian IPOs Bovespa IPOs Latam ADR IPOs Source: ERDesk, Efficient Frontiers, NYSE, Bovespa, WFE, BNY Mellon
Brazilian Public Offerings Source: ERDesk, Efficient Frontiers, Bovespa
Algorithmic Trading in Brazil Participation of algorithmic trading by exchange In terms of number of trades 60% 55% 50% 40% 35% 30% 35% BATSNASDAQNYSE ArcaDirectEdgeXetraLSETokyo SETMX 18% Bovespa Source: ERDesk, Efficient Frontiers, Finextra, Traders Magazine, FT, Reuters, BM&FBovespa
High Frequency Trading in Brazil 0.31% 0.57% 0.97% 1.45% 1.99% 1.63% 1.79% 2.10% 2.64% 4.69% 5.44% 5.56% 4.16% 3.47% 4.69% 5.18% 3.87% 4.26% 6.89% 5.50% 5.93% 6.66% 4.97%4.73% 4.47% 4.04% 5.66% 6.63% 5.86% 5.89% 8.69% 7.59% 8.57% 11.35% 10.41% 10.29% Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11 In terms of value traded Volume from Co-located Other HFT Source: ERDesk, Efficient Frontiers, BM&FBovespa
Global Trading is Fueling Domestic Exchanges Europe Latin America China Foreign investors are increasingly trading in local markets, reducing need for companies to list abroad
Financial Statecraft United States: Financial sanctions Exchange rate policies Capital flow policies Europe: Tobin tax
Tobin Tax Derivatives exchange fees Rate per million of value traded CME Eq mini ICE US Fin CME Eq std NYMEX Core COMEXICE UE Futures CME Eurodollar CME T-Bonds Proposed Tobin tax x 39x 18x11x52x21x13x17x Source: ERDesk, Efficient Frontiers, CME
Financial Statecraft United States: Financial sanctions Exchange rate policies Capital flow policies Europe: Tobin tax India?
Internationalization Strategies Intra-SAARC potential limited Key is U.S. & European flows
U.S. Portfolio Holdings of Indian Securities Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury Holdings in $ millions % of total U.S. foreign holdings
Internationalization Strategies Intra-SAARC potential limited Key is U.S. & European flows India seen as a BRIC, not South Asian