1 History as a launch pad for foresight: Robert Textor, Ethnographic Futures -- the rubber band effect. Paul Saffo, Technological Forecasting -- twice as far back as forward. Layering history of different sectors: Analysing different patterns of change. Identifying different speeds of change.

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Mapping a trend’s diffusion into public awareness from its starting point as an emerging issue of change. local; few cases; emerging issues 3 rd horizon Pockets of future found In present Time “ present ”“ future ” Number of cases; degree of public awareness global; multiple dispersed cases; trends and drivers scientists; artists; radicals; mystics specialists ’ journals and websites laypersons ’ magazines; websites; documentaries newspapers; news magazines; broadcast media institutions and government system limits; problems develop; unintended impacts 3

 Beginning of research, not the end;  “N of 1”;  Unearths contradictions;  Subjective, not objective;  “Unscientific” sources;  Systems-based;  Unfamiliar concepts. Primary futures tool for identifying and monitoring emerging change. Related to issues management and competitive intelligence. ”Environment” refers to the information environment – all media – and ”scanning” to logically structured, continuous monitoring of data sources. High quality scanning: –identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, – confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and – has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation. 4

 Scanning provides a starting point to monitor possible transformative / disruptive changes.  3 Horizons helps us organise and consider the interplay of trends and emerging changes.  Uses:  Challenge obsolescing assumptions;  Spot emerging constraints / opportunities;  Get beyond incrementalism. 5

Three Horizons Framework for Layering Change Life-cycles B Sharp, T Hodgson, A Curry 6

UK Foresight Intelligent Infrastructure Systems (IIS) Project Perspective: long-term time horizon Need: technology road-mapping that reflects generations of technological innovation Researchers: Bill Sharpe, Tony Hodgson, Andrew Curry Publications and articles: –IIS Technology Forward Look; Sharpe and Hodgson –Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to Strategy; Curry and Hodgson Method now in wide use, book collecting case studies being developed 7

Three Horizons: Functional differences B Sharp, T Hodgson, A Curry Horizon 1: Managers Horizon 1: Managers Dominance of worldview Horizon 2: Entrepreneurs Horizon 2: Entrepreneurs Horizon 3: Visionary Leaders Horizon 3: Visionary Leaders Status quo, momentum, inertia Incremental adaptation & innovation Emerging change & visions Pockets of the future found in the present 8

What are the current working assumptions and systems of production and marketing? What are you taking for granted when you make management decisions (horizon 1)? What changes are emerging as completely new paradigms and means to understand and undertake various human activities (horizon 3)? What are visionary leaders saying? Which of the immediate changes you see represent a transition or accommodation for evolving tensions as current assumptions and work patterns obsolesce, and transformative changes erupt into possibility (horizon 2)? What opportunities do you see? What are entrepreneurs building? 9