Rethinking U.S. Foreign Policy: Bush vs. Obama “Cowboy Diplomacy”or the only alternative in a dangerous world?

Foreign Policy and Presidential Approval al-approval-center.aspx al-approval-center.aspx al-approval-center.aspx al-approval-center.aspx

Disapproval of US Foreign Policy In 2008: In 2008: 68% of global citizens thought US presence in the Middle East provoked more conflict than it prevented 68% of global citizens thought US presence in the Middle East provoked more conflict than it prevented Only 34% of Americans approved of the situation in Iraq, compared with only 20% globally Only 34% of Americans approved of the situation in Iraq, compared with only 20% globally

Levels of Analysis to Explain U.S. Foreign Policy Individual Individual Group/Substate Group/Substate State State Dyadic Dyadic International System International System

Ideals vs. Interests

Unilateralism v. Multilateralism Isolationism before 9/11 Isolationism before 9/11 ICC ICC Kyoto Protocol Kyoto Protocol Land Mines Treaty Land Mines Treaty Invasion of Iraq Invasion of Iraq Sanctions on Sudan Sanctions on Sudan Afghanistan North Korean Nuclear Weapons Iran’s nuclear program

Preventive War The case against Saddam Hussein The case against Saddam Hussein Preventive war v. preemptive strikes Preventive war v. preemptive strikes Just war doctrine Just war doctrine Deterrence against non-state actors Deterrence against non-state actors Nuclear weapons and rogue states Nuclear weapons and rogue states

Exporting Democracy Can be imported, but not exported Can be imported, but not exported Exported at the point of a gun? Exported at the point of a gun? Germany and Japan Germany and Japan Grenada and Panama Grenada and Panama Democracy v. development Democracy v. development Democracy v. civil society Democracy v. civil society US Democracy US Democracy

Exporting Democracy Is It The Best American Product?

Three Waves of Democracy Samuel Huntington identified three waves in the spread of democracy in the World. Samuel Huntington identified three waves in the spread of democracy in the World. 1. Early 19 th century extension of the franchise thru the new democracies of the 20 th century – 29 Democracies. Reversal to 22 began with rise of Mussolini

Three Waves of Democracy 2. After the allied victory in World War II. The number of democracies rose to 36 free nations. By the mid-70s there was a reversal back to The Third Wave began in the 80s with 30 new democracies, 15 new free states in the 90s and 10 new democracies in the 00s. (85 total) Are we going to begin a reversal or it is the “End of History?”

The Third Wave of Democracy

The End of the Third Wave Democracy Faltering in Latin America Democracy Faltering in Latin America Democracy’s Demise in Putin’s Russia Democracy’s Demise in Putin’s Russia The failure of democracy to take hold in the new states of the former Soviet Union The failure of democracy to take hold in the new states of the former Soviet Union Retrenchment in Sub- Saharan Africa Retrenchment in Sub- Saharan Africa

Democratic Peace Theory

Idealism v. Realism American Ideals v. American Interests American Ideals v. American Interests Woodrow Wilson and a U.S. foreign policy based upon moral imperatives Woodrow Wilson and a U.S. foreign policy based upon moral imperatives 1. Fourteen Points 2. League of Nations FDR’s support for self determination FDR’s support for self determination Jimmy Carter’s human rights foreign policy Jimmy Carter’s human rights foreign policy 1. The overthrow of the Shah of Iran 2. The defeat of the Somoza Regime in Nicaragua 3. Carter’s inconsistencies

Idealism v. Realism Truman’s Containment Truman’s Containment Eisenhower’s support for Latin American dictators & failure to support Hungarian dissidents Eisenhower’s support for Latin American dictators & failure to support Hungarian dissidents Reagan’s support for the Nicaraguan “Contras” Reagan’s support for the Nicaraguan “Contras” Bush 41 discourages democracy in the new states of the former USSR Bush 41 discourages democracy in the new states of the former USSR

President Bush’s Plan to Export Democracy American Exceptionalism and the UniPolar moment American Exceptionalism and the UniPolar moment The power of Western liberal democracy and capitalism The power of Western liberal democracy and capitalism The lack of freedom and opportunity in the Middle East is the cause of 9/11 (Majority of hijackers were Saudis) The lack of freedom and opportunity in the Middle East is the cause of 9/11 (Majority of hijackers were Saudis)

The Bush Plan: The Good News Elections in Iraq Elections in Iraq Elections in Afghanistan Elections in Afghanistan The “Orange Revolution” in the Ukraine The “Orange Revolution” in the Ukraine Success in Lebanon Success in Lebanon Reform In Egypt Reform In Egypt Revolution in Kyrgzstan Revolution in Kyrgzstan Funding for democracy Funding for democracy

The Critics

Democracy can’t be spread at the point of a gun. Economic development, stability, the rule of law and growth of civil society must precede democracy Democracy can’t be spread at the point of a gun. Economic development, stability, the rule of law and growth of civil society must precede democracy We are not safer. The Bush policy brings more recruits to Jihad and increases the threat of Terrorism We are not safer. The Bush policy brings more recruits to Jihad and increases the threat of Terrorism Where is the support for democracy in China, Saudi Arabia or Pakistan? Where is the support for democracy in China, Saudi Arabia or Pakistan? The bad role model: Abu Ghraib, military tribunals and Guantanamo The bad role model: Abu Ghraib, military tribunals and Guantanamo Iraq & Afghanistan are unlikely to become real democracies Iraq & Afghanistan are unlikely to become real democracies

Is Democracy Appropriate? Cultural Imperialism Cultural Imperialism The U.S. Constitution in the Philippines The U.S. Constitution in the Philippines Women’s Rights Women’s Rights Elections do not a democracy make. Elections do not a democracy make. Does the “bottom up” approach really seem to work best? Does the “bottom up” approach really seem to work best?

Origins of Obama’s Foreign Policy Advisors vs. Cabinet Appointments Advisors vs. Cabinet Appointments The War in Vietnam & the Democratic Party The War in Vietnam & the Democratic Party Joe Biden Joe Biden The War in Iraq The War in Iraq

Obama’s Foreign Policy Report Card Image in the Muslim World Image in the Muslim World Wars in Iraq & Afghanistan Wars in Iraq & Afghanistan GWOT - UBL GWOT - UBL Middle East Peace Middle East Peace Arab Spring Arab Spring WMD in Iran WMD in Iran Russia “Reset” Russia “Reset” Asia “Pivot” Asia “Pivot”