GLOBAL Monday 10 November 2014 ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITIES ASSESSMENT OFFICIAL

Risk Map: Global Weather Events – Significant Impact 7 Day Outlook (Issued 09 NOV 14) HEADLINES Balkans / Southern Italy – Torrential rain expected in coming days – risk of further significant flash flooding / landslides. US (NE) – Unseasonably very cold air next week may give risk of sig snowfall and possible transport disruption. Risk Map of Global Weather Events with Significant Impact and Satellite Image ( Z NOV 14) IMPACT HIGH LOW Dominican Republic / Ecuador / Columbia / Brazil: Heavy rain, risk of flooding Mexico / US Texas: Areas of heavy rain, risk of flooding SE India / Bangladesh: Heavy rain flood risk. NE USA/SE Canada: cold plunge & widespread snow SCS / Gulf of Thailand: Heavy rain, risk of flooding Balkans / Italy: Torrential rain, flood and landslide risk. Libya: Dust Storm Risk Remnant TC 05B Remnant of TS Nuri Heavy rain, Snow above 8000 FT Heavy rain, risk of flooding

WNP Current No storms at present. Nuri near Japan and TC 05B near India both dissipated in recent days. Risk of Impact – LOW TROPICAL CYCLONES © Crown Copyright 2014OFFICIALJOMOC

GLOBAL Recent Major Flooding Events Ethiopia – Oct to Present Heavy rains starting in September 2014 caused flooding in Ethiopia's Afar, SNNP and Somali regions. By 28 Oct, some 72,680 people had been affected and more than 50,000 people had been displaced, having partially or totally lost their homes and livelihoods. The forecasted good performance of the deyr (October-December) rains in the Somali region poses a continued risk of flooding. Somalia – Oct to Present Heavy rains in CS Somalia and in upper parts of the Shabelle basin in the Somali-Ethiopian border have caused flooding along both the Shabelle and Juba Rivers. The worst-hit areas are along the Shabelle River: Beledweyne in Hiraan region, and in the Middle Shabelle region, where there have been some river breakages. Along the Juba River, Dolo in Gedo region, and Jilib and Jamame in Lower Juba have been affected. Medium humanitarian impact. Pakistan – Sep until mid-October Heavy monsoon rainfall during September and the first half of October. 367 deaths, 2.5 million affected. 107,000 houses damaged, 2.4 million acres of crops affected. Flood magnitude 7.32 (Class 2) Medium humanitarian Impact FLOODING EVENTS © Crown Copyright 2014OFFICIALJOMOC Areas of Severe Flood Potential produced by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)

GLOBAL DROUGHTS / FOOD RISK © Crown Copyright 2014OFFICIALJOMOC Headlines Bolivia – An emergency drought situation has been declared in the Santa Cruz region affecting 10,000 families and 20K hectares of mainly corn crop. West Africa (Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone) – Ebola related impacts may lead to food insecurity and shortages mainly in market driven urban areas. Somalia – In northern Gedo Region, the Gu rains ended early and were below average, with above average temperatures. Livestock body conditions are poor. Current Env Driven Impacts Ethiopia – Below-average rains during the Belg season and a late onset of the Kiremt rains have led to persistent moisture deficits, which have delayed planting and hurt the development of already-planted crops in central Ethiopia Somalia - In Dawo Pastoral and Southern Agro- pastoral livelihood zones in northern Gedo Region, the Gu rains ended early and were below average in many areas. Temperatures have been above-average since February. Livestock body conditions are poor, and livestock prices are low, limiting incomes. In agro- pastoral areas, almost no crops were harvested in June/July. Given high water prices and low incomes, poor households cannot afford adequate quantities of food and are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Central America – Poor rainfall across central Guatemala, southern Honduras, El Salvador, northern Costa Rica and western Nicaragua will hurt Primera crop development. Below-average rainfall is expected for the remainder of the rainy season in Haiti, causing stressed food security. Gov of Honduras has declared an emergency for drought with more than 186,000 people now affected West Africa - Ebola related fear disrupt markets and livelihood leading to elevated risk of food insecurity, especially for the urban poor and families with ill members. Bolivia - October 2014, six municipalities in Bolivia's eastern Santa Cruz region impacted by drought. An estimated 10,236 families are affected (about 51,180 people) as well as 20,344 hectares - 90 per cent of which is corn crops. The number of people affected is expected to rise to 150,000. Authorities are preparing to deliver emergency assistance. Source FEWS Net – Famine Early Warning Systems Network Please refer to for further information

OFFICIAL GLOBAL VOLCANIC ACTIVITY RISK Volcanic Update Iceland Bardarbunga Volcano AVN colour remains AMB Earthquake activity continues in the area. (Source - IMO) Philippines Mayon Volcano 13 Oct - Philippines Alert level 3 still in effect Continues to exhibit extremely high unrest 53,000 people evacuated (Source - OCHA) Colombia Chiles y Cerro Negro Volcano 21 Oct – people were order to evacuate due to seismic activity in the area Orange alert by UNGRD

GLOBAL WIND SPEED POPULATION VUNERABILITY ALERT LEVEL TROPICAL STORM (38-73 mph) < 10M Low / Med / HighGREEN TROPICAL STORM (38-73 mph) < 10M HighAMBER Category 1-2 TC ( mph) > 100K or >10% Med / HighAMBER Category 1-2 TC ( mph) > 1M High RED Category 3 TC (>110 mph) > 100K or >10% Med / High RED Category 3 TC (>110 mph) > 1M LowAMBER Category 4 TC (>131 mph) > 1M Low RED IMPACT CRITERIA - TC TC Vulnerability Index specified by the UN / EC Global Disaster Alert and Co- ordination System (GDACS) based on combined indicators as set out on their website: © Crown Copyright 2014OFFICIALJOMOC

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