"All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?" NBC Nov 1-2 – 11% right direction, 76% wrong direction "How well are things going in the country today: very well, fairly well, pretty badly or very badly?“ CNN Oct 17 – 42% pretty badly, 33% very badly 73% Disapprove of how Congress is handling its job

And yet.. Few incumbents lose – 16 House (12 R, 4 D) – 2 Senate (R- NH, NC) Partisan swing – 5 GOP Senate seats lost (NH, NC, CO, NM, VA) OR, AK, MN undecided – Democrat gains 20 in House

Context of Congressional Elections Single member districts Roughly equal size (650,000 souls) First Tuesday in November in even # years Australian ballot Must win 2 elections

Same Place, Same Voters Three Maps, Three Outcomes Basic Rules – each square same population. – All squares in the same district must touch – R squares have a majority of Republican voters – D squares have a majority of Democratic voters. Each set of squares with the same color represent a single election district

Map 1 How many Ds and Rs elected? How many competitive elections? five desirable less safe, more competitive districts, where the winner of the election may be either a Republican or a Democrat

Map 2 How many Ds and Rs elected? How many competitive elections? three Republican and two Democratic majority districts, all safe 55 percent or better districts for incumbents of the respective parties. Note the very safe pink D district

Map 3 How many Ds and Rs elected? How many competitive elections? two Republican and three Democratic majority districts, all safe 55 percent or better districts for incumbents of the respective parties:

Florida Florida's 22nd District – 90 miles long – Less than 3 miles wide. – every beach house lining Route A1A along Florida's Gold Coast from West Palm Beach to Miami Beach – 52% Dem in 2000, 55% R in 2002

Social & Political Contexts Amazing Variation – geographic size – Population – Economic base – Ethnicity – Age – Partisanship

Incumbency Reelection Rates

Incumbency 93% of House incumbents are reelected – 1994, 84% of House Democrats were reelected 77% of Senate incumbents are reelected #1 question to ask for congressional elections, Is there an incumbent?

Sources of Incumbent advantage Institutions are designed by members who want to get reelected. Amazing array of resources – Free mail, trips to district, staff – Free facilities for TV and radio ads – Casework

# of Senate Staff, 1830 –1993

Puzzle

Is it the Money? Average incumbent gets 64.3% of vote For every $100,00 spent, lose 1.17% of vote For every $100,00 spent by party, lose 2.73% of vote incumbent House winner spends $700,00 incumbent House loser spends 1,300,000

Incumbency Status and Voters' Familiarity with Congressional Candidates, Jacobsen, The Politics of Congressional Elections, 1996

Voters’ Contact with Incumbents

Voters’ Contact with Candidates, 1990

Challengers 1990, 1994

Things Liked about Incumbents

Things Disliked about Incumbents

Things Liked about Challengers

Characteristics of Winning and Losing Challengers

Corporate PACs/Trade Associations 60% of all PAC $, 1994

The Incumbent’s Strategy Discourage serious electoral competition – Hilary Clinton - who doesn’t she want to face! Use casework, trips home, mailings to create perception of invulnerability Ambitious career politicians and campaign funders are rational

Montana- McCain 50%, Baucus 73% Arkansas McCain 59%, Mark Pryor, 80%

Who does Kirsten Gillibrand want to run against? John Faso, GOP nominee for governor, 16 years state assembly Jim Tedisco, Minority Leader of Assembly, 26 years state assembly Sandy Treadwell, Appointed chair of New York GOP, wealth $50 million

Who is a marginal incumbent Less than 60% of vote in previous election Scandal in last term Republican in a democratic leaning district First term representative

Electoral Competition and Challenger Spending in 1994 Challenger’s party vote in last House election, spending by non-incumbent house candidate <40%, $105, %, $322, %, $433,000 Open seat $580,000

House of Representatives 61 “competitive” races in 2000 – 193 GOP incumbents won, 4 lost – 199 Dem incumbents won, 2 lost – GOP wins 20 of 25 open seats – Dems with 4 of 10 open seats 17 changes of 435

Senate in toss up races out of 33 – GOP 13 of 18 incumbents win – Dems 10 of 11 incumbents win – GOP 0 of 1 on open seats – Dems 3 of 4 on open seats 7 changes

Expectations Game Better the electoral odds, better the challenger and more money Weak incumbents and open seats attract well funded quality challengers Strong incumbents attract weak, poorly funded candidates

Strategic Politician Hypothesis Best candidates, most money go to marginal incumbents, open seats 2 nd tier candidates, some money go Hopeless, poorly funded candidates run against strong incumbents

Rational Targeting in 2004 DCC identifies top races; direct $$ there In 2004, – 33 challengers spent over $2 million – 200 spent less than $100,000 – 30 House elections decided by <10% Bad for Public? Bad for Party?

Expand the Field in 2006? 30 races or a 100 Campaign Spending  diminishing returns ($1 million) Extra $500k  10 races

How would you vote in your congressional district if the election "were being held today?" – 52% of registered voters Dem – 37% for Republican candidates Who would you like to see "in control of Congress after the congressional elections a year from now? – 55% Dems – 37% Republicans. ABC News/Washington Post Poll

Strategic Politician Model Implication  candidates decide elections, not voters

Campaigns ½ of all money is wasted, high uncertainty What issues are important Low turnout – 35% turnout in midterm elections Who votes? seniors and partisans! Random terror and running scared – Tom Foley, speaker of the house, 15 terms

Why do incumbents win? Better known (90% vs 40% Better liked (more familiar) Better funded

Why do challengers win? Make voters aware of incumbents’ shortcomings, their own virtues via mass media Are well funded Implications???

NY’s 21 st District 55% Bush – Gillibrand Gillibrand

Reforming the System Term limits – Federal level – State level Increase competitiveness of elections – Campaign finance reform Key Issue, how to get more people to run for office!!!

“Race to the Base” % Reagan % Clinton % Kerry

Electoral Replacement The Death of the Gypsy Moth Marge Roukema Scott Garrett

Candidate Certification in Open Primaries 216 House members, 42 senators

Declare War on Rinos Republican In Name Only – Arlen Specter (PA) – Lincoln Chafee (RI) – George Voinvich (OH) – Olympia Snowe (ME)

Primary Challengers for Moderates War on Rinos – Senator Chafee (R-RI) vs Steve LaffeySteve Laffey

Safe Electoral Strategy Cater to partisan and ideological GOP base – 10 competitive races in 2004 – 35 competitive races in 2006

Why Incumbents Win Table 5.3, high name recognition Table 5.7, Voters Contact with Candidates Table 5.15 – Personal – Performance/experience – District service – Ideology/Policy

Challengers Strategy Table 5.3 name recognition Table 5.11, Campaign expenditures and name recognition Table 5.7, Voters Contact with Candidates – Where do voters learn about challengers Table 5.15, Things liked about challengers – What is #1?