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Dan M. Kahan Yale University & many others How should science museums communicate climate science?

What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. Everything I know about climate science communication:

What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. Everything I know about climate science communication:

What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. Everything I know about climate science communication:

What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. Everything I know about climate science communication:

“Belief” in evolution

Science comprehension probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen] “Electrons are smaller than atoms.” (True/false) Science literacy: item response functions very lowvery high Science comprehension very lowvery high

Science comprehension Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen] Science literacy: item response functions very lowvery highvery lowvery high Ordinary Science Intelligence probability of correct answer “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false)

Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen] Science literacy: item response functions probability of correct answer “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity Science comprehension very lowvery high Science comprehension very lowvery high

“Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. “Which gas makes up most of the Earth's atmosphere?” [Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Carbon Dioxide, Oxygen] “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Below avg. religiosity Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity Above avg. religiosity Science literacy: item response functions Science comprehension very lowvery high Science comprehension very lowvery high probability of correct answer

“Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. “According to the theory of evolution, human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity Science literacy: item response functions Science comprehension very lowvery high Science comprehension very lowvery high

Teaching evolution to “nonbelievers”

“Belief” in global warming

global warming risk

Left_right political orientation “How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Very liberal Strong Democrat Very Conservative Strong Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Moderate Independent N = 1,885. Nationally representative sample, June 2013 (YouGov). Subjects “color coded” based on response to risk- perception outcome variable. X-axis reflects subject score on composite scale that aggregates responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α = 0.82).

Left_right political orientation “How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” r = , p < 0.01 Very liberal Strong Democrat Very Conservative Strong Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Moderate Independent N = 1,885. Nationally representative sample, June 2013 (YouGov). Subjects “color coded” based on response to risk- perception outcome variable. X-axis reflects subject score on composite scale that aggregates responses to 7-point party identification item and 5-point “liberal-conservative” ideology item (α = 0.82).

“Belief” in global warming

Ordinary Science Intelligence global warming risk

“Belief” in global warming Ordinary Science Intelligence global warming risk

“Climate science literacy” battery

“Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. “According to the theory of evolution, human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity Science literacy: item response functions Science comprehension very lowvery high Science comprehension very lowvery high

“Climate scientists believe that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.” [True or False] “What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Climate science literacy: item response functions very low Climate science literacy very lowvery high Climate science literacy very high

“Climate scientists believe that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.” [True or False] “What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Climate science literacy: item response functions very low Climate science literacy very lowvery high Climate science literacy very high probability of correct answer

“Climate scientists believe that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.” [True or False] “What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Climate science literacy: item response functions very low Climate science literacy very lowvery high Climate science literacy very high probability of correct answer

No. correct Human causedNaturally causedNo warming Positions on global warming in “past few decades” Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. “Climate science literacy” and global warming “beliefs”

Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. r = 0.32, p < 0.01 Climate science literacy & general science comprehension very lowvery high very low Science comprehension Climate science literacy

“How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?”

Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. Climate science literacy & general science comprehension Science comprehension very lowvery high very low Climate science literacy r = 0.32, p < 0.01

Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). X-axis is continuous “Ordinary Science Intelligence” scale formed by IRT-weighted responses to NSF & Pew science literacy, Numeracy, and Cognitive Reflection Test items (α=0.83). CIs reflect 095 level of confidence for estimated population mean. r = 0.32, p < 0.01 Climate science literacy & general science comprehension Science comprehension very lowvery high very low Climate science literacy > avg Left_Right< avg Left_Right

“Climate scientists believe that the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.” [True or False] “What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Climate science literacy: item response functions very low Climate science literacy very lowvery high Climate science literacy very high

“What gas do most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise? Is it [hydrogen, helium, carbon dioxide, radon]?” probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 1,769. Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Political outlook predictor set at -1 SD & + 1 SD on “Left_right" scale for “liberal democrat” and “conservative Republican,” respectively. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican Climate science literacy: item response functions Climate science literacy very lowvery high Climate science literacy “[Is the earth] getting warmer (a) mostly because of human activity such as burning fossil fuels or (b) mostly because of natural patterns in the earth’s environment?” very lowvery high Conservative Republican Liberal Democrat Conservative Republican

Soute Cultural Cognition Project SE Fla. evidence-based science communication initiative

What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. What should local government science communicators communicate to the public about climate change?

“How much risk do you believe global warming poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” United States as a whole (summer 2013) Southeast Florida (Fall 2013) no risk at all Egalitarian communitarian Hierarch individualist

4 SE Fla. Counties > avg. Left_right 78% agree “Local and state officials should be involved in identifying steps that local communities can take to reduce the risk posed by rising sea levels.” pct. agree “Landuse planners should identify assess and revise existing laws to assure that they reflect the risks posed by rising sea level and extreme weather.” pct. agree

“Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) probability of correct answer Annenberg Center for Public Policy & Cultural Cognition Project. N = 2,000. Nationally representative sample, April/May 2014 (YouGov). Predicted probabilities derived via Monte Carlo Simulation based on logistic regression. Colored bars reflect 0.95 confidence intervals. “According to the theory of evolution, human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.” (True/false) Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity Above avg. religiosity Below avg. religiosity Science literacy: item response functions Science comprehension very lowvery high Science comprehension very lowvery high

Teaching evolution to “nonbelievers”

What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. What should science communicators communicate to the public?

Katie’s “Compact connector scouting report” form

PB County Examples Corporate Exec HOA Leader Architect Community Organizer COBWRA Leader Construction Manager Hotel President Marina Director Surf Club Leader Investment Manager

Communicate normality

What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. What should science museums communicate to the public?

Disentangling knowledge from identity Climate: Local govtEvolution: Classroom

What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. What should science museums communicate to the public? You don’t have to choose between knowing what we know about climate change & being who you are to enjoy our cool exhibits!

What ordinary members of the public “believe” about climate change doesn’t reflect what they know; it expresses who they are. Curiosity... wonder