Roskilde University – Zero Regio Mantova PCC11 2008 Funded by EU FP6 05-05-2015 Anders Chr. Hansen Can HFC in automotive use contribute to EU goals? Economic.

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Roskilde University – Zero Regio Mantova PCC Funded by EU FP Anders Chr. Hansen Can HFC in automotive use contribute to EU goals? Economic viability, competitiveness of HFC? If not: Taxes and subsidies But only if supporting societal priorities and goals Quantifying the reasons for tax-favoring HFC

Anders Chr. Hansen 2 Societal priorities and goals Cost effectiveness Energy efficiency Eco-efficiency Supply security Can HFC in transport contribute to EU goals? Focus on

Anders Chr. Hansen 3 Hydrogen cost comparison based on oil price of $25/bbl Source: The Alternative Fuels Contact Group (2004)

Anders Chr. Hansen 4 Will NG based H2 be delinked from the oil price? Figure 1. Natural Gas and Oi Prices

Competitiveness threshold model Anders Chr. Hansen 5 Oil price ($(2005)/bbl) Cost (€/km) Petrol and diesel Natural gas based H 2 Wind, nuclear, etc. based H Early studies Thresholds

Anders Chr. Hansen 6 Which competing technology? TtW energy efficiency advantage JRC EUCAR and CONCAVE (2006): Direct hydrogen0% Direct hydrogen hybrid-11% Gasoline PISI hybrid72% Gasoline/ethanol DISI hybrid73% Diesel/biodiesel DICI+DPF hybrid55% CNG PISI48% LH2 PISI40% Argonne National Laboratory (2007): CIDI Vehicle (CD, BD, FTD, DME,RFG)71% Gasoline etc. hybrids (EtOH, MeOH, NG, RFG)53% Diesel etc. hybrids (BD, FTD, or CD)33% Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicles0% Battery Electric Vehicles-34%

Anders Chr. Hansen 7 Eaten up by WtT conversion loss? WorstBest TtW efficiency advantage50% WtT (“system”) efficiency62%70% WtW efficiency gain1%14%

Anders Chr. Hansen 8 Passenger Car Density 2004 (Cars/sq.km) Source: Hansen (2007) based on Eurostat

Anders Chr. Hansen 9 Fuel taxes 2004 (€/GJ) Petrol Diesel

Anders Chr. Hansen 10 Fuel taxes move the competitiveness threshold Diesel and petrol (€/GJ) Hydrogen (€/GJ) Natural gas (€/GJ) NGWinNGWinNGWinNGWinNGWin Best case ($/bbl) Worst case ($/bbl)

Anders Chr. Hansen 11 Model from Sustainable Mobility Project WBCSD and IEA Only passenger cars in Europe Levels are debatable since assumptions would probably be different today But we only look for changes

Anders Chr. Hansen 12 Scenarios 1) A reference scenario Almost only gasoline and diesel Market shares of hybrids, LPG/CNG, and EV negligible 2) NG based HFC scenario Introduction of HFC in passenger car market is advanced 41% of passenger car sales in 2050 hydrogen is based on natural gas 3) Low carbon HFC scenario Like NG based scenario, but H 2 is produced with GHG emission free or light methods Low carbon H 2 99% market share in 2025

Anders Chr. Hansen 13 NG based HFC scenario GHG emissions

Anders Chr. Hansen 14 Low carbon HFC scenario GHG emissions

Anders Chr. Hansen 15 NG based HFC scenario PM emissions (≈NOx,VOC,CO)

Anders Chr. Hansen 16 Low carbon HFC scenario PM emissions (≈NOx,VOC,CO)

Anders Chr. Hansen 17 PM 2.5 deaths (loss of statistical life expectancy) after EU Air Strategy and Maximum Climate Action Source: EEA (2006)

Anders Chr. Hansen 18 Concentration of remaining reserves Data source: BP statistical review database 2006

Anders Chr. Hansen 19 Any reasons for pursuing natural gas based hydrogen in the introduction phase? Dynamic effects throughout the fuel chain (and commodity chain for equipment) Pull forces User-producer interaction Economies of scope External economies of scale (cluster effects) ….

Anders Chr. Hansen 20 Why subsidies or lower taxes to H2? Case for tax-favors modest for NGH 2, but strong for CO2-lean H 2 production HFC can contribute to achievement of societal goals: Even in if renewable and nuclear energy 2020s: coal with CCS, photovoltaic, HT electrolysis, algae.. HFC limited contribution if supply based on natural gas supply, in particular without CCS The tax levels already existing in Europe are sufficient If designed to reflect contributions to societal goals even more so: Taxation of energy inputs

Anders Chr. Hansen 21 Recent EECG Research Papers on HFC in automotive use from Department of Environmental, Social and Spatial Change (ENSPAC) at Roskilde University Hansen, A. C. (2007) Where in Europe Will Hydrogen Become Competitive First? Hansen, A. C. (2007) When Will Hydrogen Become a Competitive Transport Fuel? Hansen, A. C. (2007) Hydrogen and Fuel Taxation. Hansen, A. C. (2007) The Potential Contibution of Hydrogen to Societal Goals. Hansen, A. C. (2007) The Supply Security of Hydrogen as Transport Fuel. Hansen, A. C. (2007) Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology in EU LDV Transport: Potential Contribution to Environmental Goals. Hansen, A. C. (2007) The International Oil Price and Hydrogen Competitiveness.