BIO 4118 Applied Biostatistics Scott Findlay GNN 374 (Biology); 555 King Edward (Institute of the Environment) (613) 562-5800 x 4549 (Biology), (613) 562-5874 (Institute of the Environment) findlay@uottawa.ca University of Ottawa - Bio 4158 – Applied Biostatistics © Antoine Morin and Scott Findlay 14/04/2017 10:18 PM

About me Not a statistician! So emphasis will be on practical knowledge and application of statistics, rather than theorems and proofs. University of Ottawa - Bio 4118 – Applied Biostatistics © Antoine Morin and Scott Findlay 14/04/2017 10:18 PM

Why you should be here you have an interest in statistical reasoning you have a desire to learn to use statistics properly in experimental design and data analysis you want to develop your ability to critically assess scientific (or pseudo-scientific) arguments University of Ottawa - Bio 4118 – Applied Biostatistics © Antoine Morin and Scott Findlay 14/04/2017 10:18 PM

What is expected of you attendance at most lectures attendance at most laboratory sessions feedback to me on what you like and dislike about the course, and especially how it might be improved University of Ottawa - Bio 4118 – Applied Biostatistics © Antoine Morin and Scott Findlay 14/04/2017 10:18 PM

Objectives Understand the fundamental principles of statistical inference. Understand the general principles underlying the most common tests. Know the assumptions of common tests and understand impact of violations. Be able to perform standard statistical analyses with S-PLUS. University of Ottawa - Bio 4118 – Applied Biostatistics © Antoine Morin and Scott Findlay 14/04/2017 10:18 PM

Evaluation 50% Problem assignments 50% Term projects All assignments are “open-book”, and can be done in groups of three people or fewer. Remember, plagiarism is not acceptable! University of Ottawa - Bio 4118 – Applied Biostatistics © Antoine Morin and Scott Findlay 14/04/2017 10:18 PM

Texts Morin, A. & C.S. Findlay 2004. Course Notes for BIO 4118 Applied Biostatistics. University of Ottawa, Ottawa, available at Agora for about $15. Findlay, C.S. & A. Morin 2004. Lecture Presentations for BIO 4118 Applied Biostatistics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa. Posted on web site as individual files. Zar, J.H. 2000. Biostatistical Analysis (4th edition), Prentice-Hall, Upper saddle River, New Jersey. $107 at Agora, 135 1/2 Rue Besserer St. University of Ottawa - Bio 4118 – Applied Biostatistics © Antoine Morin and Scott Findlay 14/04/2017 10:18 PM

Class preparation Read appropriate chapter(s) in lecture notes beforehand and bring questions to class. If you’ve got a question, ask it immediately! There is no such thing as a stupid question! For labs, read appropriate section(s) in lecture notes beforehand. University of Ottawa - Bio 4118 – Applied Biostatistics © Antoine Morin and Scott Findlay 14/04/2017 10:18 PM

Accessing the course web simulium.bio.uottawa.ca/bio4118 Bio 4118/4518/8100s Documents, Biostatistics/2006 lecture notes, solutions Class presentations (Acrobat and ppt) Previous problems and exams with solutions Messages (What’s new?) University of Ottawa - Bio 4118 – Applied Biostatistics © Antoine Morin and Scott Findlay 14/04/2017 10:18 PM

Some opinions of statistics “If your experiment needs statistics, you should have done a better experiment.” Ernest Rutherford “There are three types of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics!” Benjamin Disraeli University of Ottawa - Bio 4118 – Applied Biostatistics © Antoine Morin and Scott Findlay 14/04/2017 10:18 PM

Some opinions of statistics “To call in a statistician after the experiment is done may be no more than asking him to perform a postmortem “The purpose of models is not to fit the data, but to sharpen the questions.” Samuel Karlin examination; he may be able to say what the experiment died of.” Sir Ronald Fisher University of Ottawa - Bio 4118 – Applied Biostatistics © Antoine Morin and Scott Findlay 14/04/2017 10:18 PM

What statistics can and can’t do provide objective criteria for evaluating hypotheses synthesize information (not without information loss… keep your raw data!) help detect patterns in messy data help optimize effort help you critically evaluate arguments tell the truth (probabilistic conclusions only!) compensate for poor design indicate biological significance: statistical significance does not mean biological significance, nor vice versa! University of Ottawa - Bio 4118 – Applied Biostatistics © Antoine Morin and Scott Findlay 14/04/2017 10:18 PM

The four ages of a biostatistician Defining characteristics Comment Stone Total ignorance Ignorance is not bliss! Bronze Nodding familiarity, but understanding purely superficial Statistics a (small) sidebar to scientific investigation (See Rutherford, Ernest) Silver Moderate familiarity coupled with a strong desire to demonstrate same; statistical reach exceeds grasp Overwhelming concern with statistical minutae; scientific forest often obscured by statistical trees. Gold Knows when statistical issues are (and are not) important; recognizes limitations (of self and statistical science) That to which we can/should all aspire. University of Ottawa - Bio 4118 – Applied Biostatistics © Antoine Morin and Scott Findlay 14/04/2017 10:18 PM