Greg Kremer Ohio University Prepared: 2009 Decisions Gone Wrong – Due to cognitive bias, group dynamics and organizational structure Based on: The Art of Critical Decision Making Professor Michael A. Roberto

2 Only seeing things that confirm your prior beliefs, even though contradictory evidence is also present Confirmation Bias Decisions go wrong due to cognitive bias – and we are all biased! Also applies to readily accepting things that support the decision you want, rather than being open to the evidence that might lead to a better un- biased decision

3 Opinions = facts Perceptions = facts Anecdotal = facts evidence We treat 90% of the information we process as facts BUT Only 10% of that information is factual [Ref: Lambert, Is what I’m saying what you are really hearing] Decisions go wrong due to cognitive bias – and we are all biased! Our job as decision makers is to FACT CHECK

4 Lack of a feeling of individual accountability yields more reckless behavior If no single person is responsible for a decision, groups take more unsubstantiated risks Decisions go wrong due to group errors Individuals sometimes ‘follow the crowd’ instead of thinking through a decision

5 We are what we repeatedly do. [Aristotle] Who cares about bad decisions for low- priority or low- importance issues? Decisions go wrong due to bad habits and underestimating the consequences Most catastrophic decisions were preceded by a string of bad decisions of lower consequences – bad decision process becomes a habit. We usually do not know the real consequences of our decisions beforehand…

6 Be aware of your biases and the external factors that influence decisions Make the effort to make good decisions The Art of Critical Decision Making Questions? Decisions are processes, not events, and they determine our future – let’s pay attention.