The Impact of the Crimean crisis on the Eurasian integration Arseni Sivitski Director

The difference of positions on Crimean referendum revealed a great loss of trust between Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan Moscow didn’t consult beforehand Minsk and Astana on the Crimean operation

Kremlin demonstrates that it doesn’t care about the Belarus and Kazakhstan’s opinion All attempts of Minsk and Astana to promote a diplomatic approach to overcoming the Ukrainian crisis were blocked by Moscow

The Crimean crisis is a great opportunity for Moscow to check the loyalty of its Eurasian partners Belarus and Kazakhstan didn’t pass through this exam. Their positions was perceived as unfriendly and non-allied by Moscow.

The Crimean crisis provides a basis for the crisis of Putin’s Eurasian project Kremlin has to invest into Crimean economy about $ 4 bln per year. For Belarus it means the possible decrease of financial and other economic assistance from Russia.

The main motivation of Belarus to join the Eurasian Union is the elimination of oil export tariffs Belarus has to pay into the budget of Russian Federation $ 3-4 bln per year because of this tariffs. But Kazakhstan as well as Russia is interested in such oil export tariffs. Also Astana wants to get the full access to the Russia’s logistics and transport infrastructure.

It is a great question if the oil export tariffs will be eliminated The dramatic situation in Russia’s economy doesn’t facilitate this elimination

Crisis scenarios of Eurasian integration 1.Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan will sign the Eurasian union agreement, but nobody will respect their obligations. 2.Belarus and Kazakhstan will try to postpone the signing of Eurasian union agreement. 3.Belarus and Kazakhstan can frustrate the signing of Eurasian union agreement.

How Moscow will react to this crisis scenarios? After Crimean gambit the Kremlin’s reaction to disloyalty can be very strict even in case of Belarus. It doesn’t mean the Crimea-style military scenario in Belarus. But Russia has all the necessary political and economic leverages to punish Belarus and destabilize situation.

Thank you for your attention! Arseni Sivitski Director