Campaign Planning Process 28 Feb 2007 Mission Analysis Brief

Scope for Mission Analysis Brief Updates Updates Intelligence Updates Intelligence Updates Operations Updates Operations Updates Mission Analysis Mission Analysis Strategic Commander’s Guidance Strategic Commander’s Guidance CTF Mission Analysis CTF Mission Analysis (Mission, Intent, Objectives & Operational End State) System Centre of Gravity (S-COG) System Centre of Gravity (S-COG) Strategic S-COG Strategic S-COG Schematics of Operational S-COG Schematics of Operational S-COG Operational S-COG Matrix Operational S-COG Matrix Detail Timetable for CPP Step 4 Detail Timetable for CPP Step 4

Campaign Planning Process 28 Feb 2007 Intelligence Updates

Campaign Planning Process 28 Feb 2007 Operations Updates

CTF Components CTF Component Analysis CTF Staff Command Group 30%50%20% Steps 1 to 3 Steps 4 & 5 Steps 6 & 7 1 – Commander’s Scoping 2 – Situation Review 3A – Mission Analysis 3B – S-COG Analysis 3C – Factor Analysis 4E – Determine Prioritized Supporting Effects (SEs) 5 – Linking Planning to Execution 6 – Commander’s Estimate 7 – Prepare OPLAN / OPORD 4A – Develop the Campaign Framework 4B – Decisive Point (DP) Analysis & Supporting Effect (SE) Development 4D – Produce Campaign Plan Directive (C5) & FID (Staff) 4C – Decisive Point (DP) Evaluation WARNO 1OIPEMsn AnalysisWARNO 2Campaign PlanWARNO 3CDR’s EstimateOPORD 1OPLAN 1 Strategic Military Direction (HHQ Warning Order to JTF / CTF) Done prior to TE 11

Understanding & ROE Collectively, the CTF HQ had conducted CPP Step 1 – 3 and produce the Mission Analysis and Warning Order #1 & 2. Collectively, the CTF HQ had conducted CPP Step 1 – 3 and produce the Mission Analysis and Warning Order #1 & 2. Purpose of this brief to establish a common ground for all planners to move forward for CPP Step 4 – 5. Purpose of this brief to establish a common ground for all planners to move forward for CPP Step 4 – 5. Common definition based on MNF SOP for System Centre of Gravity (S-COG). Common definition based on MNF SOP for System Centre of Gravity (S-COG). Feedback on CPP Step 1 – 3 can be highlighted to the After Action Review (AAR) Team. Feedback on CPP Step 1 – 3 can be highlighted to the After Action Review (AAR) Team.

Mission Analysis Brief Strategic Command Guidance 1. Supported Strategic Command Mission Statement. Singapore assumes lead nation responsibilities in establishing a Coalition Task Force no later than 30 April 2007 for the purpose of conducting peace operations in the designated area of operations, ensuring the withdrawal of Sonora forces from Kuhistan, preventing further missile attacks by Kuhistan on Sonora and supporting the United Nations mandate in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1569, in order to restore peace and security in the region. On order, transition to a follow-on peacekeeping force. 2. Strategic End State. CTF PACIFIC restores secure and stable environment, alleviate immediate disaster related health issues, substantially restores infrastructure critical to humanitarian assistance efforts, KUHISTAN and SONORA forces redeployed to their respective national territories, CTF tasks effectively transitioned to KUHISTAN authorities and follow-on UN PKF. CTF redeployed.

Mission Analysis Brief CTF Mission Analysis 1. CTF Mission. On order, CTF PACIFIC is to conduct Peace Operations in PACIFICA for a period of 6 months, in order to enforce the peace agreement between KUHISTAN and SONORA, establish a stable and secure environment in KUHISTAN for rebuilding, and set the conditions for the transition to KUHISTAN authorities and UN PKF, in accordance with UN SCR 1569 (2006). 2. CTF Commander’s Intent CCTF’s intent is to speedily establish the CTF PACIFIC in the AO to expedite and enforce the forces separation to respective internationally recognised borders and to exhibit the will of CTF to enforce the peace agreement. Concurrently, security measures are carried out in KUHISTAN to establish a stable and secure environment to facilitate restoration of law and order. Thereafter, within CTF’s capability, to support/conduct humanitarian efforts to alleviate any immediate disaster-related issues and restore critical infrastructure.

Mission Analysis Brief CTF Mission Analysis 3. Operational Objectives. Separate KUH and SON forcesSeparate KUH and SON forces Ensure SON forces withdraw from KUH territoryEnsure SON forces withdraw from KUH territory Prevent further attacks by KUH on SONPrevent further attacks by KUH on SON Maintain the integrity of the internationally recognised KUH-SON border (land/maritime/air)Maintain the integrity of the internationally recognised KUH-SON border (land/maritime/air) Help establish peace and security in KUH in order to facilitate social and economic rehabilitation of the KUH populationHelp establish peace and security in KUH in order to facilitate social and economic rehabilitation of the KUH population Support humanitarian assistance operations to assist in the rapid restoration of law and orderSupport humanitarian assistance operations to assist in the rapid restoration of law and order Protect and support civilian elements to facilitate humanitarian operationsProtect and support civilian elements to facilitate humanitarian operations Plan transition to KUH authorities and follow-on UN PKFPlan transition to KUH authorities and follow-on UN PKF Deal with CBRN-related issuesDeal with CBRN-related issues Conduct anti-terrorism measuresConduct anti-terrorism measures

Mission Analysis Brief CTF Mission Analysis 4. Operational End State. A stable and secure environment is established, when: - separation of KUHISTAN and SONORA forces to within their respective internationally recognised borders is achieved; - cessation of hostilities between KUHISTAN and SONORA ; - threats to security are significantly reduced within Kuhistan; - immediate humanitarian and other disaster issues are sufficiently mitigated or reduced; - critical infrastructures are restored for humanitarian effort; - conditions agreed by CTF, KUHISTAN authorities and UN PKF thereafter for transition.

Campaign Planning Process 28 Feb 2007 System Centre of Gravity

Strategic S-COG Analysis Strategic End State – CTF PACIFIC restores secure and stable environment, alleviate immediate disaster related health issues, substantially restores infrastructure critical to humanitarian assistance efforts, KUHISTAN and SONORA forces redeployed to their respective national territories, CTF tasks effectively transitioned to KUHISTAN authorities and follow-on UN PKF. CTF redeployed. S-COG – International diplomatic and domestic political recognition that the peaceful resolution of differences is the desired goal of the current conflict in PACIFICA. Critical Capabilities (CCs): Acknowledgement that peaceful means costs less in many terms will help foster an environment conducive to establishing long-term peace and security in the region. Acknowledgement that peaceful means costs less in many terms will help foster an environment conducive to establishing long-term peace and security in the region. Critical Requirements (CRs): development of mechanisms that build trust development of mechanisms that build trust minimize concerns in the intentions of either of the parties to the conflict minimize concerns in the intentions of either of the parties to the conflict the diplomatic inducements of international peace-makers in helping facilitate the peaceful settlement of disputes the diplomatic inducements of international peace-makers in helping facilitate the peaceful settlement of disputes international pressure on key leaders in Kuhistan and Sonora to end the violence international pressure on key leaders in Kuhistan and Sonora to end the violence a strong international condemnation of the violence that is backed by a credible force able to enforce the will of the international community’s mandate a strong international condemnation of the violence that is backed by a credible force able to enforce the will of the international community’s mandate economic incentives to the belligerents designed to foster cooperation vice competition. economic incentives to the belligerents designed to foster cooperation vice competition. Critical Vulnerabilities (CVs): The leadership of both nations, particularly the hard-liners are vulnerable for various reasons: bowing to pressure to compromise might caused them to be seen as weak with the possibility of attendant loss of authority; bowing to pressure to compromise might caused them to be seen as weak with the possibility of attendant loss of authority; the fear of being subjected to harsher treatment such as war crimes when they compromise might compel them to harden their positions against seeking peaceful resolution. the fear of being subjected to harsher treatment such as war crimes when they compromise might compel them to harden their positions against seeking peaceful resolution.

OPERATIONAL S-COG ANALYSIS

Operational S-COG Analysis A stable and secure environment is established, when: - separation of KUHISTAN and SONORA forces to within their respective internationally recognised borders is achieved; - cessation of hostilities between KUHISTAN and SONORA ; - threats to security are significantly reduced within KUHISTAN ; - immediate humanitarian and other disaster issues are sufficiently mitigated or reduced; - critical infrastructures are restored for humanitarian effort; - other conditions agreed by CTF, KUHISTAN authorities and UN PKF thereafter for transition. S-COG – Cessation of hostility among conflicting parties. Between SONORA & KUHISTAN military forces Between SONORA & KUHISTAN military forces Conflicting parties within KUHISTAN (MPAK, KFC, MW & IPM) Conflicting parties within KUHISTAN (MPAK, KFC, MW & IPM) Critical Capabilities (CCs): Trust among stakeholders Trust among stakeholders Stability for rebuilding & economic recovery Stability for rebuilding & economic recovery Capacity for immediate Disaster Crisis Management Capacity for immediate Disaster Crisis Management Credible CTF Credible CTF Critical Requirements (CRs): Violence ceased / diminished Violence ceased / diminished Sovereignty assured Sovereignty assured Isolation of KFC & IPM Isolation of KFC & IPM Entice MPAK & Free Mojave to support the peace process Entice MPAK & Free Mojave to support the peace process Empower local civil sector to be self sustainable Empower local civil sector to be self sustainable Engage local population Engage local population Early intro of UN/IO/NGO for reconstruction and rehabilitation Early intro of UN/IO/NGO for reconstruction and rehabilitation Introducing economic incentives to encourage progressive economic development Introducing economic incentives to encourage progressive economic development HA situation is resolved to a degree that is signicant to reduce internal unrest HA situation is resolved to a degree that is signicant to reduce internal unrest Continued resources commitment from TCC Continued resources commitment from TCC Robust force protection Robust force protection Unity within CTF Unity within CTF Critical Vulnerabilities (CVs): Non-compliance to peace agreement Non-compliance to peace agreement Factions within leadership of stakeholders Factions within leadership of stakeholders Inability to deal with hostile acts by KFC, IPM Inability to deal with hostile acts by KFC, IPM Loss of confidence of local populace Loss of confidence of local populace Lack of capability of local gov / authorities Lack of capability of local gov / authorities Inability to deal with humanitarian crisis Inability to deal with humanitarian crisis Lack of support for HA agencies Lack of support for HA agencies Inability to sustain CTF operations Inability to sustain CTF operations Compromised impartiality Compromised impartiality Loss of Int’l / TCC support Loss of Int’l / TCC support

Campaign Planning Process 28 Feb 2007 Timetable for CPP Step 4

0930 – 1030Step 4A (Comd Core Gp) 0930 – 1030Step 4A (Comd Core Gp) 1030 – 1200Prep for 4B & 4C (OPT 1 – 4) 1030 – 1200Prep for 4B & 4C (OPT 1 – 4) 1200 – 1300Lunch 1200 – 1300Lunch 1300 – 1430Presentation for 4B & 4C (All) 1300 – 1430Presentation for 4B & 4C (All) 1430 – 1500Break / Prep for 4E 1430 – 1500Break / Prep for 4E 1500 – 1600Step 4E: Prioritization of Effort / WARNO 3 (Comd Core Gp) 1500 – 1600Step 4E: Prioritization of Effort / WARNO 3 (Comd Core Gp) 1600 – 1630Break 1600 – 1630Break 1630 – 1700Brief Campaign Plan Framework to CCTF 1630 – 1700Brief Campaign Plan Framework to CCTF 1700 – 1730CCTF Guidance / SR Mentor 1700 – 1730CCTF Guidance / SR Mentor