Joint Syria-Egypt plans of Attack - Jimmy, Aaron

Re-establishment of cordial relations prior to the start of the war Collaboration between the two states began after a change in Egypt’s foreign policy. Egypt had distanced itself from the USSR and expelled all Soviet delegates. This created the misconception by the Israeli and the USA that without Soviet aid, Egypt was weak. Anwar Sadat began to build bridges with the other Arab states. - Firstly, he helped resolve the dispute between Syria and Jordan (Kings Hussein’s expulsion of the PLO) In private Sadat and Hafez al-Assad began to prepare for war with Israel

Prelude to Yom Kippur War Sadat was annoyed by Israel’s stubbornness and refusal to negotiate. (speech of attempted break of deadlock over the 3 No’s)  War was the only option left hoping he would gain prestige+ regain territories (Suez Canal+ Sinai Peninsula) Assad had similar aims and also wanted prestige as his power had not yet been consolidated (planned to win back Golan Heights)

Prelude Resolution to quarrel between Jordan and Syria Tripartite Agreement- (Egypt, Jordan, Syria) Israel’s ally (USA) was distracted by the Vietnam war, political scandals during Nixon’s presidency (watergate)  Perfect time for invasion as Israel not ready

Prelude Israel still believed Egypt was weak as Egypt kept a stream of false information, E.g. reporting lack of spare parts Expected support from US, international community(after Munich ’72 massacre) Israeli intelligence dismissed warning signs One call-up in Israel turned out to be a false alarm so the Army wary of another call-up

Israel’s lack of intelligence Due to the Egyptian army training exercise on area adjacent to the Suez canal, the Israeli’s saw this as no threat. They also ignored the Syrian troop movements towards the border as they still believed they would not attack without Egypt

Yom Kippur War 2:00, 6 October Operation Badr Egypt + Syria launch attack on Israeli troops in Sinai+ Golan Heights SIMULTANEOUSLY It was on one of the holiest days in the Jewish calendar, the entire state was at a standstill and more vulnerable as soldiers go home on this day The Egyptian and Syrian forces were supplied with Soviet arms. Most notably surface-air missiles+ anti-tank rockets (Israeli airforce+tanks suffered dire consequences)

ROLE OF ARAB STATES DURING THE YOM KIPPUR WAR By: Simon and Sonia

Role of Jordan One of the most ambiguous roles They were “secret friends” with Israel Hussein clearly understood the outcome of a direct confrontation with Israel King Hussein of Jordan reluctance to open a Jordanian front However, there was personal warning of Egyptian-Syrian assault from King Hussein of Jordan.

During the Actual War Jordanian army who arrived in the area without knowing exactly where the front line was. Jordan did send actual force to the Syrian side of the to show his concern for Arab solidarity, but he kept his own front with Israel completely quiet during the war. Thus Israel's Army and Air Force was able to concentrate on the direct Syrian and Egyptian threats.

Syria’s Role Egypt and Syria were the initial planners in the attack Syria also desired a return of the land lost in the Six-Day War. Hafiz al-Assad, the leader of Syria, had a different view. He had little interest in negotiation and felt the retaking of the Golan Heights would be a purely military option.

Arab Oil Crisis On October 16, 1973, OPEC announced a decision to raise the posted price of oil by 70%, to $5.11 a barrel. The following day, oil ministers agreed to the embargo, a cut in production by five percent, and continued to cut oil supply until their demands were met

Arab Oil Crisis October 19, US President Richard Nixon requested Congress $2.2 billion in emergency aid to Israel. In turn Libya announced it would embargo all oil shipments to the United States. Total embargo on oil deliveries to the United States as a “principal hostile country”. Though United States was the initial target of the embargo, it was later expanded to other regions. Price increases were also imposed. Arab oil producers had also linked the end of the embargo with successful US efforts to create peace in the Middle East

Egyptian Role pre-war Nasser died in 1970, to be replaced by his successor Anwar Sadat Egyptians had been demoralized and their economy was crumbling Sadat decided that the only option available was to go to war with Israel. Soviet Union declined to assist the Egyptians Egypt now in the favor of the US

Egyptian Role Main attack came from that of Egypt, whose army amassed more than 100,000 troops Israel had only 400 soldiers guarding the bridge which gave the Egyptians access to the Sinai The Egyptians attacked on Yom Kippur which was one of Israel’s holiest days It seemed to the Israeli’s that they would be beaten but they managed to hold off both fronts of the attacks which came through the Sinai and Golan Heights.

Egyptian Role Egyptian army was no match for the trained Israeli troops however, and was beaten back after reinforcements had arrived The Egyptians also attempted to aid Syria by counterattacking the Israeli’s when Syria was in trouble Egyptians were eventually also pushed back into their own country and the fighting went as far as 60 km away from Cairo.

Iraq’s Role Syrians and Egyptians had tried to request help from Iraq, however, Iraq refused to be a part of the initial offensive Iraq sided with Syria and Egypt and first sent aid when the initial offensive had started to fail. Iraq sent in their own division of around 30,000 men into the Golan Heights which attacked the southern flank of the Israeli army On the 23 rd of October when Syria announced their acceptance to the ceasefire, the Iraqi’s called their soldiers home who withdrew from the border of Syria and Israel.

Egypt Sadat managed to accomplish his goal of giving Egypt a more visible presence in international affairs. Egypt managed to attain increased political status in the region. Egyptian president emerged as world figure and hero to the Arabs.

The Yom Kippur War Situation on the ground: success or failure?

Map of Yom Kippur War

Arab Successes Successful surprise attack on the Israelis from both the Syrians and the Egyptians. The invasion of Israel was planned meticulously by top generals in Egypt and Syria. Egypt waged a successful intelligence campaign, feeding misinformation about Egyptian forces. The Egyptians did well to disguise their intentions for attack, disguising military maneuvers across the Suez Canal as “routine training exercises”. When the Israeli army mobilized in response to these “training exercises”, it cost them around $1 million. To lull suspicion on the Israeli side, around 20,000 troops were demobilized and were allowed to perform the pilgrimage to Mecca. Thus when Egypt launched Operation Badr, the Israelis were completely caught off guard.

Arab Successes Use of surface-to-air (SAM) missiles along the Suez Canal allowed an area of defense from the Israeli Air Force. The use of anti-tank brigades inflicted heavy losses for Israeli tank divisions. Egyptian and Syrian forces heavily outnumbered Israeli forces during the first week of the war. Syrian forces made great use of night vision, to battle precisely during the night.

Arab Successes End of Israeli invincibility in the region Return of the Sinai to Egypt First time Arab and Israeli officials meet for public discussion after war. Last time they met was after the 1948 war Sadat had a stronger image and became more popular because of the successes of the war Eased Arab bitterness after the failures of the 6-day war

Arab mistakes Fell to pressure from the US and the Soviet Union and could not win the war. The Arabs grew overconfident after their initial successes, during the Israeli counterattack in October 12. Instead of carefully maneuvering their forces (as they had done during Operation Badr) they expended them in a head-on attack against the waiting Israeli brigades. The impressive surprise attack by Arab forces did not translate into large territorial advances.

Problems for Israel at the start of the Conflict The timing of the attack was a disadvantage for the Israelis. – Yom Kippur, being the holiest day in the Jewish calendar, caused most people in Israel to fast and abstain from electricity, communications, etc. Many Israeli soldiers went on leave during this time. Israel discounted an attack by Egypt – Yom Kippur coincided with Ramadan, when Muslims were also fasting. However, some analysts argue to the contrary: the empty roads and communications during Yom Kippur allowed faster movement of military equipment. Problems emerged a few days before the Egyptian attack: – Israelis received several intelligence reports of an imminent war with Egypt. Israelis felt that war was not an Arab option – Golda Meir, Moshe Dayan and General David Elazar met to discuss a pre- emptive attack. Ultimately Golda Meir disallowed the attack as Israel would not receive the support it needed. – Definitive evidence of an Egyptian attack came in only a few hours before the invasion.

Israeli faults: Operation Badr Israeli failure during Operation Badr (6-8 October), the opening event in the war, was due to overconfidence in their defences. The Bar Lev Line was a line of fortifications along the Suez Canal, built by Israeli forces. Although it was thought to be impenetrable by the Israelis, the defences were easily dismantled by high pressure water hoses. At the time of the attack, the Bar Lev Line was only partially manned. The size of the walls limited their visibility of the Egyptian armies. Failure in Operation Badr was also due to hasty actions and tactical failures by the Israeli forces. When attempting to reach the Bar Lev garrison quickly, the Israeli forces repeatedly fell into Egyptian ambushes.

Other Israeli Mistakes The Israelis were confident, after their thrilling victory in 1967, that the Israeli Air Force would be able to repel any attack in the Sinai. This overconfidence was shown in a common Israeli saying: “Damascus is only one hour's drive away, and Cairo perhaps two.” Overconfidence pervaded the Israeli military hierarchy, which caused them to misinterpret Arab actions and caused them to have a lax sense of security. There was a fundamental failure in Israeli intelligence: it failed to decipher the true intentions of Egypt. The simultaneous attack by Egypt and Syria split the attention of the Israeli Air Force.

Israeli Successes The Israeli forces concentrated on defending the Golan Heights first, since it was closer to population centres. This allowed for the quick mobilisation of the Citizens’ Army, who were mobilised faster than Syrian predictions. Although considered the “black sheep” of the Israeli services, the Israeli Navy was the most successful in the Yom Kippur War. The use of small and fast missile boats, equipped with surface-to-surface missiles, gave decisive victories against Egypt (Battle of Baltim) and Syria (Battle of Latakia) on the sea. Despite losses in the first few weeks, the Israelis were able to reverse their fortunes with successful counter attacks in mid- October. In the south, they outmanoeuvred Egyptian advances and took territory in the South of the Suez Canal. In the north, the use of mobile artillery proved to be effective against the Syrian advance.

Situation on the ground after the War

Conclusion The first few weeks in the war was a stunning success for Egypt and Syria. The Arab militaries displayed strategic superiority over the Israeli military. However, as the Israelis reorganised themselves, the dominance of the Israeli military displayed itself once again. By the end of the war, both sides could claim victory.

RESULTS OF THE YOM KIPPUR WAR What did the war achieve for each of the key players?

Israel The image of an invincible Israel that had prevailed since the June 1967 War was destroyed forever. More than 6,000 troops had been killed or wounded in 18 days. Loss of equipment and the decline of production and exports as consequence of mobilization. Able to recover and fight back. Moshe Dayan heavily criticized by the Israeli public. Huge drop in self-confidence Shift in government from Labour to Likud ( Right wing)

Egypt Sadat managed to accomplish his goal of giving Egypt a more visible presence in international affairs. Egypt managed to attain increased political status in the region and became the spokesperson for the Palestinians Egyptian President Anwar Sadat emerged as world figure and hero to the Arabs.

Arab States The considered themselves victors of the Yom Kippur War. For the first time, Arab armies were not defeated since Able to overcome all the differences and emerged from the war more united.. The oil embargo became a powerful new weapon Affirmed that the rights of Palestinians must be considered in any settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

USA Supplied Israel with much-needed military equipment such as tanks, planes and ammunition Thereby solidifying US-Israeli relations After the war US quadrupled amount of foreign aid supplied to Israel Took over France as main supplier of arms Kissinger played a huge role in the negotiations to end the conflict

USSR? Influence in the region diminished However did play a role in the Geneva Peace conference of 1974 Thereafter a significant decline of influence in the region Leads the USSR to interfere elsewhere: Regime change in Africa and Afghanistan

Yom Kippur War Role of the Soviet Union and USA Caroline and Louise

Context: The Cold War and Détente Yom Kippur war occurred during Detente. The USA and USSR still provided arms to countries in the Middle East. Egypt and Syria supplied by USSR Israel supplied by USA Neither country was keen to cause a war in the area

Role of the USSR Provided arms for Syria, Egypt and Baathist regimes both before and during war Soviet officials removed from Egypt in a very public way just prior to start of the war Claimed this was because of dispute over arms Lulled Israel into a false sense of security. USSR threatened to intervene during the cease fire

Role of the USA Supplied Israel with military equipment: planes, tanks and ammunition both before and during the war Nasser’s successor Anwar Sadat: depended on USA to have UN 242 implemented to regain Suez

US and USSR intervention during the war Both deeply involved in the war Both sent arms to their supporters ( see map) When Israel crossed the Suez canal both superpowers stepped in USSR advised Egypt to accept ceasefire while it still held part of Sinai USA worried about oil embargo and also about USSR military intervention

US and USSR pressure on both sides USA prevented Israel from advancing on Cairo and Damascus Both leaders met and demanded ceasefire which was supported by the UN as well. Helped end fighting on the 24 th of October UN troops sent to Egypt to preserve the ceasefire.

Aftermath US-Israel relations were stronger Both US and USSR tried to build up air force of their client states policy supported by very powerful lobby,

USA’s step by step diplomacy ResultsIsrael Arab States USAUSSR

What did the War change? Emergence of hard-line players and attitudes on both sides – Syria now aligns itself with the hardline axis: Algeria, Libya, S.Yemen, Iraq and PLO Contrasts with emergence of genuine desire for peace – Jordan under King Hussein emerges as a voice for peace – Moshe Dayan willing to negotiate with Egypt, willing to accept withdrawal of Israeli troops from Sinai – Sadat wants peace with Israel and will negotiate to get back Sinai

Kissinger’s Step by Step diplomacy Also referred to as Shuttle diplomacy Lasted between November 1973 until about August 1974 Achieved much ground in the initial stages but came into problems in the later stages

Kissinger’s problems Negotiations took place in the background of the Watergate scandal which threatened the presidency of Nixon Vietnam and the US policy failure. USA lost credibility as a global player Israel’s domestic policies unstable. Golda Meir lost power. Followed by Yitzhak Rabin and then the 1977 elections was won by Begin. A hardliner and right wing. – Seen as an Sephardim, younger generation vote for change. More hardline less willing to compromise

Kissinger’s 6 steps Step 1: KM 101 agreement with Egypt and Israel to withdraw upto the Mitla and Gidi passes. Involves the UN to step in Step 2: Negotiations with OPEC and Saudi Arabia to end oil embargo. Involves Arab states Met with USSR to implement and decide on implementation of the UN Res 338. involves USSR

Kissinger’s 6 steps Step 4 : Peace talks in Geneva involving Egypt Jordan Israel and USSR. First time Egypt and Israel at a meeting. Syria did not attend but agreed not to upset negotiations. Israel attended only because PLO not there.Talks between enemy parties which led to further concessions and created a defined buffer zone Step 5 Negotiations with Moshe Dayan to withdraw beyond Gidi and Mitla.. Further breakthrough. Egypt allowed to keep 8 battalions and 30 tanks there for security Negotiations with Syria and Israel over the Golan Heights. This was the most difficult one as involved Syrian and Israeli security considerations. Despite tensions, there was a defined border and Syria had the right to place 9 battalions on stand by at Damascus

Challenges faced by Kissinger Israel in no mood for compromises on Golan Heights Negotiations complicated by PLO actions in Kiryat Shmonah killings and also the bus attack on school children at Maalot Even so it was a partial success for Kissinger in the early stages Later stages Kissinger found it harder to negotiate PLO attack in Tel Aviv in March 1975 for all practical purposes marked the end of the negotiatiion Israels retaliation on the Litani river …. US retaliates by allowing weapons sales to Jordan This in turn led to AIPAC signature campaign calling on the US government to honor its commitment to Israel.

1975 August last mission by Kissinger Israel concedes Mitla and Gidi passes and withdraws from Abu Rudeis oilfields in return for help to build larger oil storage facilities Egypt allows Israeli cargoes to pass through Suez USA makes it clear that there will be no negotiation with PLO unless it adheres to UN 242 and 338

WHO GAINED WHO LOST Summing up

Israel Guarantees for self-defence Two Sinai agreements Jan 1974 followed by September 1975

Egypt Egypt limited aims recognised Partial return of Sinai US ally of Egypt and Egypt now very much a part of the peace process Jordan’s king being seen as a mediator in the regional politics

Syria and PLO For PLO it meant recognition of itself as the spokesperson for Palestinians but not respected by USA Recognition by UN which farther weakens its prestige

Palestinians Losers because once again the war fought in their name but was not about them Sadat comes across as the spokesperson but Palestine not at the top of the agenda