Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies Projected Regional Changes Jagadish Shukla Lecture18: Oct 30, 2008 CLIM 101: Weather, Climate and Global Society

Main threat to a sustainable Earth Arctic summer sea ice likely to disappear in second half of century Dynamic instability of Greenland ice sheets Very likely increase in heat waves Likely increase in intensity of tropical storms Etc… SST

Main threat to a sustainable Earth Damages from business-as-usual scenario would be at least 5% and up to 20% of Global GDP a year Costs of removing most of the climate risk are around 1% of GDP per year This is equivalent to paying on average 1% more for what we buy “We can grow and be green” Sir Nicholas Stern

Main threat to a sustainable Earth According to IPCC AR4/WGIII, the cost of avoiding the worst would be only a fraction of what Stern Report projected Trajectories towards stabilization levels (ppm CO 2 -eq) Median GDP reduction (%) Range of GDP reduction (%) Reduction of average annual GDP growth rates (percentage points) – 1.2< – 2.5< Not available< 3< 0.12

Sustainability issues – LDCs China, India and Brazil: now among the main drivers of the world’s economy Nepstad et al., Conservation Biology (2006) China’s GDP has grown on average 9.6% per year in the last quarter century China replaced EU as the main importer of Brazilian soybeans

Sustainability issues – LDCs Cultivated land area went from 1,307,400 km² in 1991 to 1,282,400 km² in 2000 Construction accounted for 56.6% of reduction 60% of China’s 669 cities face water scarcity Economic losses due to pollution in China amounted to US$ 12.8 billion annually – 1.4% of GDP ( ) Source: Gaoming Jiang & Jixi Gao, 2007

Sustainability issues - LDCs 2006: 2.6% increase in global CO 2 from fossil fuel Mainly due to 4.5% increase in coal consumption China contributed more than two-thirds China’s CO 2 emissions surpassed those of the USA by 8% LDCs are now part of the problem and part of the solution Total emissions

Sustainability issues - LDCs But LDCs: small contribution to climate change, at least in per capita terms Per capita emissions US China Remember 1992 UNFCCC: “Common but differentiated responsibilities”

Equality: impacts will hit the poor hardest and earliest

Impacts hit the poor hardest 30 to 200 million people at risk of hunger with temperature rises of 2 to 3°C 0.7 to 4.4 billion people will experience growing water shortages with a rise of 2°C Yields across Africa and Western Asia may fall by 15% to 35%

Impacts hit the poor hardest Climate impacts will decrease water availability and drought in semi-arid latitudes “It’s exactly what we don’t want; it makes the world much less even, more inequitable” Martin Parry, co-chair IPCC WGII

Challenges to be addressed Purification of air and water Mitigation of droughts and floods Preservation of soils Pollination of crops and vegetation Dispersal of seeds Cycling and movement of nutrients Control of potential agricultural pests Maintenance of biodiversity Protection of coastal shores erosion Stabilization of climate etc. ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

Sustainability issues – LDCs Under threat: Cerrado, Brazilian savanna One of Brazil’s two biodiversity hotspots At the current rate of loss, gone by 2030 CI/Nature

Impacts hit the poor hardest Adaptation will cost LDCs $10 bns anually Even more for the necessary infrastructure

Main threat to a sustainable Earth

Source: Gordon et al., 2004 Impacts hit the poor hardest Nearly 200 million people live in coastal flood zones at risk South Asia alone: more than 60 million people

Future climate change will affect water availability, increasing water stress in already stressed regions... Impacts

Extreme rainfall variability: the case of Kenya Kenya: extreme rainfall variability around mean 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160%

Kenya’s flood & drought Hirji et al, World Bank (2003) 10/97-02/98 floodinfrastructure damage$ 2.39 b 10/98-05/00 droughtcrop loss$ 0.24 b livestock loss$ 0.14 b reduc. HP production$ 0.64 b reduc. industr. production$ 1.39 b total$ 2.41 b 10/97-05/00cost of climate variability$ 4.8 b approx (annual) GDP($9b/yr)$ 22 b impact as % GDP/annum22%

Mozambique’s 2000 floods Real GDP - 23%

Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe Rainfall affects growth…. the case of Zimbabwe

Temperature and Precipitation Changes over Africa (A1B )

Anomaly of Mean Monthly Precipitation Downscaled from GCMs

Temperature and Precipitation Changes over Europe(A1B )

Temperature and Precipitation Changes over Asia (A1B )

Temperature and Precipitation Changes over North America (A1B )

Percent Snow Depth Changes in March

Temperature and Precipitation Changes over South America (A1B )

PROJECTED SCENARIOS OF DEFORESTATION... Control 20% 40% 50% 60%80%100% or Soybean Source: Soares-Filho et al., 2006 and Amazon Scenarios Project, LBA Sampaio et al., 2007 Vegetation classification Dorman and Sellers (1989)

Temperature and Precipitation Changes over Australia (A1B )

Annual Surface Temperature Changes (A1B ) 2080 to 2099 minus 1980 to 1999

Global dust deposition Jickells et al. (2005) GEC goes beyond climate change

2003 Heat wave hits Europe 30,000 people die in Western Europe observations HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2) s 2060s Temperature anomaly (wrt ) °C GEC is more acute than ever GEC is more acute than ever

Main threat to a sustainable world Arctic summer sea ice likely to disappear in second half of century Very likely increase in heatwaves Likely increase in intensity of tropical storms SST

Case study: Summer heat wave 2003 Schär et al Rebetez et al August 2003 PrecipitationMax. temperature Heat stress Drought stress Wildfires

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