Hurricane watch is issued 24 to 48 hours before a storm arrives to cities that could be hit. A hurricane warning is issued when it is forecasted that it will hit, along with a % probability that the hurricane’s center will pass within 105 km of a community –Allows residents time to plan or evacuate –Usually issued for a coastal area 500km in length –Many people are ‘overwarned’ as only 1/3 rd will actually get hit. Hurricane Watches, Warnings, and Forecasts

Hurricane watch:

Forecasting intensity and movement of a hurricane with ‘numerical weather prediction’ models –Uses current information from satellites, buoys in water, aircraft- hurricane hunters, with dropsondes dropped into hurricane –‘Ensemble’ forecasting- running several models with different information and see where they agree- often they will not agree and the forecaster has to choose. Forecasting Hurricanes

Global ensemble forecasting from NOAA for 5/1/14

Global forecasting upper level maps

A type of model for global ensemble forecasting uses data about CAPE: Convective Available Potential Energy Can predict tornadoes, hail, and storms based on available energy

Hurricane Seeding NOAA and US Navy created project STORMFURY in the 1960s to seed hurricanes with silver iodide to move a storm’s eyewall (called eyewall replacement) and divert the hurricane Silver iodide makes artificial ice nuclei so latent heat will stimulate cloud growth at the expense of the hurricane’s eyewall A lot of unknowns, so project was abandoned. Hurricane Seeding

Hurricane damage Up until 2005, death toll from hurricanes in U.S. over 30 years averaged less than 50 persons annually. After 2005, Hurricane Katrina, had 1500 deaths from storm surge, building collapse from high winds, and flooding Devastating Wind, Storm Surge, and Flooding

Camille 1969 Hardest hit was Mississippi Winds of 184 mph, storm surge of 23 ft (Category 5) 200 deaths Hugo 1989 Hardest hit was South Carolina Winds up to 138 mph, storm surge from 8-20ft. 49 deaths Andrew 1992 Hardest hit- Florida and Louisiana Winds estimated up to 200mph Perhaps tornadoes caused damage 53 deaths Some Notable Storms

Ivan 2004 Hardest hit- Alabama and Florida Winds of 121 mph and storm surge of 16 ft (Category 3) 26 deaths 117 tornadoes produced Katrina 2005 Costliest hurricane to hit U.S. Hardest hit- Mississippi and Louisiana Winds of 175 mph (Cat.3-5) Storm surge broke levee system in New Orleans Over 1500 deaths Some Notable Storms

Tropical Cyclone Nargis 2008 Hit Myanmar (Burma) 16-foot storm surge inland at least 50km 140,000 deaths, killed entire villages Tropical Cyclone Yasi 2011 Hit northern Australia Massive flooding, winds over 172mph Super Typhoon Nalgae 2011 Hit Philippines Winds over 150mph Great Hurricane of 1780 Caribbean 27,000 deaths Some Notable Storms Overseas

Figure p444 Satellite image of Hurricane Hugo approaching Charleston, South Carolina on September 21, 1989.

Figure p444 Color radar image of Hurricane Andrew as it moves on- shore over south Florida on the morning of August 24, 1992.

Figure p444 A community in Homestead, Florida, devastated by Hurricane Andrew during August, 1992

Figure p445 Visible satellite image of Hurricane Ivan as it makes landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama, on September 15, 2004.

Figure p445 Beach homes along the Gulf Coast at Orange Beach, Alabama (a) before, and (b) after Hurricane Ivan made landfall during September, 2004.

Figure p446 Visible satellite image of Hurricane Katrina over the Gulf of Mexico. With sustained winds of 175 mi/hr and a central pressure near 902 mb (26.64 in.) (Category 5)

Figure p447 Hurricane Katrina just after making landfall along the Mississippi/Louisiana coast on the morning of August 29, 2005.

Figure p447 High winds and huge waves crash against a boat washed onto Highway 90 in Gulfport, Mississippi, as Hurricane Katrina makes landfall on the morning of August 29, 2005.

Figure p448 Floodwaters inundate New Orleans, Louisiana, during August, 2005, after the winds and storm surge from Hurricane Katrina caused several levee breaks.

Figure p449 Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Nargis on May 2, 2008, as it begins to move eastward over the Bay of Bengal toward Myanmar (Burma), where its storm surge and floodwaters killed more than 140,000 people.