Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds a publication of the National Intelligence Council To view electronic version: www.dni.gov/nic/globaltrendswww.dni.gov/nic/globaltrends.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
African Union Commission Economic Report on Africa 2011 Economic Report on Africa 2011 Governing development in Africa – the role of the state in economic.
Advertisements

Page 1© Siemens Ltd All rights reserved Sustainability as an opportunity.
Copyright 2004 © Pearson Education Canada Inc. 6-1 Chapter 6 Scanning the Marketing Environment.
1 Chapter 3 Scanning the Marketing Environment Francis Piron, Ph.D. University of Qatar Fall 2006.
The Coca-Cola Company's Observations, Responses and Outlook in a Changing Climate Greg Koch Director, Global Water Stewardship Office of Sustainability,
Distribution of LDCs and MDCs
Derek Eaton Division of Technology, Industry & Economics Economics & Trade Branch Geneva, Switzerland “Designing the Green Economy” Centre for International.
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Findings
Asia’s role in the future Randy Kluver Institute for Pacific Asia Texas A&M University.
Copyright © 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 6-1 Chapter Objectives  In this chapter, we focus on two questions:  What are the key methods for tracking and identifying.
Population Growth and Economic Development
WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
Where is the World’s Population Distributed
Concept: Production – Distribution - Consumption
Convention Dialogue, Thursday 16 November The EU’s Perspective on the Market Based Opportunities Peter Carl European Union.
WORLD POPULATION SITUATION
China By Berrelar and Emily. Background  Capital: Beijing  Population: billion (2013) World Bank  Currency: Renminbi  Gross domestic product:
DEMOGRAPHY HUMAN GEOGRAPHY.
3-4. First – Some Review Questions  NUMBER ON YOUR PAPER FROM 1-10  WE WILL GO THROUGH ALL OF THE QUESTIONS AND THEN REVIEW THE ANSWERS!
John Written for Climateprediction.net by John Harris, Head of Geography, Radley College July 2004.
Chapter 02.
Indonesia - The World’s Next Economic Power Chairul Tanjung Chairman of National Economic Committee (KEN) KOMITE EKONOMI NASIONAL REPUBLIK INDONESIA July.
Global Economy, Energy and Environment: An Overview.
Climate Security in Africa: Towards a new generation of environmental conflicts? Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research Presentation at the EGMONT, ACTED, CERI.
Delegation Members:  Barbie Bell Director-General Latin American Affairs China Brazil Bilateral Meeting Report  Brenda Caldwell Director-General Policy.
Copyright © 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 6-1 Chapter 6 Scanning the Marketing Environment by PowerPoint by Milton M. Pressley University of New Orleans.
The stakes of Development: from development to sustainable development.
Global Car Security System Market Share, Global Trends, Analysis, Research, Report, Opportunities, Segmentation and Forecast,
Geography You Need To Know To Pass The AP Exam
Thought Questions: Questions to answer. Write these questions on a piece of paper and answer them. 1. What things would cause people to leave a certain.
Chapter 6 Scanning the Marketing Environment by
The Places We Live
GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS: SHAPING REAL ESTATE’S FUTURE GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHICS: SHAPING REAL ESTATE’S FUTURE M. Leanne Lachman Lachman Associates May 5, 2010.
Unit 2: Population AP Human Geography. Essential (Big) Questions Where do people live and why do they live where they do? In which regions is population.
Human Population Growth
6-1 Marketing Management Scanning the Marketing Environment Dr. Zafer Erdogan.
José de Luna Martínez Senior Financial Economist The World Bank ADFIAP’s 35 th Annual Meeting Istanbul, Turkey, April 25-27, 2012.
Relationships: Population Studies In 1999, 600 million children in the world lived in poverty – 50 million more than in 1990 United Nations.
Chapter 12, Population and Urbanization The Study of Population The Theory of Demographic Transition Industrialization: An Uneven Experience The Demographic.
WORLD ENERGY PICTURE. Figure 1 World Energy Consumption Projections indicate continued growth in world energy use, despite world oil prices that are.
Sustainable Energy Systems The EU “WETO” World Energy, Technology and climate policy Outlook 2030 Domenico Rossetti di Valdalbero European Commission,
Dr. Saleh Alqahtani. Kotler on Marketing Today you have to run faster to stay in place.
Global Population Trends
According to the UN, world population is expected to grow to 9.2 billion by the year What challenges do you see if this prediction proves accurate?
Copyright © 2003 Prentice-Hall, Inc. 6-1 Chapter 6 Scanning the Marketing Environment by PowerPoint by Milton M. Pressley University of New Orleans.
Lesson Overview Lesson Overview Human Population Growth Lesson Overview 5.3 Human Population Growth.
INTERNATIONAL TRADE LECTURE 1: The World of International Economics.
Chapter 19 Global Population Projections. Predicting the Future Many attempts using economic forecasting, political forecasting, and forecasting using.
Summary Aquaculture Stakeholders Meeting Kona, Hawaii - August 24-26, 2011 = Soy in Aquaculture Activity ● ● ●
Chapter Five Processes and Cycles of Population Change.
Games industry in LEDC’s Team Flaccid. The games industry is growing.
In the future almost all population growth will be in the developing world.
"Forces of change in world tourism. The role of governments, enterprises and the need for p-p partnerships" Carlos Vogeler Chairman Affiliate Members UNWTO.
Population and technology The people of a country or region taken as w whole More than 90% of the world’s population live in the northern hemisphere because.
Chapter 2 Population. Population: A Critical Issue A study of population is important in understanding a number of issues in human geography. So our first.
When you are done with Pre-Test… Define Vocab Words Then Read:  deva-raja  absolute power  aristocrat  samurai  typhoon  daimyo  shogun  Pgs. 346–363.
Economics The social science that deals with the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services.
Lecture: 13 World Population. The world population is the sum total of all living humans on Earth. Total population of the world is now approximately.
MarketsandMarkets Presents AC Drives Market
 Global Trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global.
World Energy and Environmental Outlook to 2030
by Dr. Bekithemba Mpofu PhD MBA MSc BSc FCMI CBIFM
POPULATION and Urban Development
Between 1540 and 1580, what happened to the native population of Central Mexico?
Petroleum Economics Istvan Csato Department of Geological Sciences
Energy Efficiency and Renewables role in the future energy needs
Information Sheets.
Population.
AIM: Where in the world do people live and why?
Latin America’s Missing Middle: Rebooting inclusive growth
Presentation transcript:

Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds a publication of the National Intelligence Council To view electronic version:

The National Intelligence Council The National Intelligence Council supports the Director of National Intelligence in his role as head of the Intelligence Community (IC) and is the IC’s center for long-term strategic analysis. NIC’s National Intelligence Officers — drawn from government, academia, and the private sector—are the Intelligence Community’s senior experts on a range of regional and functional issues.

Global Trends 2030 Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds is the fifth installment in the National Intelligence Council’s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. The report is intended to stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. The report distinguishes between megatrends, those factors that will likely occur under any scenario, and game-changers, critical variables whose trajectories are far less certain.

Megatrend 1: Individual Empowerment Individual empowerment will accelerate owing to poverty reduction, growth of the global middle class, greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communications and manufacturing technologies, and health-care advances. The growth of the global middle class constitutes a tectonic shift: for the first time, a majority of the world’s population will not be impoverished, and the middle classes will be the most important social and economic sector in the vast majority of countries around the world.

Megatrend 2: Diffusion of Power Asia will have surpassed North America and Europe combined in terms of global power, based upon GDP, population size, military spending, and technological investment. China alone will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that of the United States a few years before 2030.

Megatrend 2: Diffusion of Power In a tectonic shift, the health of the global economy increasingly will be linked to how well the developing world does—more so than the traditional West. In addition to China, India, and Brazil, regional players such as Colombia, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, and Turkey will become especially important to the global economy. Meanwhile, the economies of Europe, Japan, and Russia are likely to continue their slow relative declines.

Megatrend 3: Demographic Patterns The demographic arc of instability will narrow. Economic growth might decline in “aging” countries. Sixty % of the world’s population will live in urbanized areas; migration will increase. In 2030 there will be 8.3 billion people (up from 7.1 billion in 2012)

Demographic Trends 1.aging —a tectonic shift for both for the West and increasingly most developing countries; 2.still-significant but shrinking number of youthful societies and states; 3.migration, which will increasingly be a cross-border issue; and 4.growing urbanization—another tectonic shift, which will spur economic growth but could put new strains on food and water

Demographic Trends Owing to rapid urbanization in the developing world, the volume of urban construction for housing, office space, and transport services over the next 40 years could roughly equal the entire volume of such construction to date in world history.

Megatrend 4: Food, Water, Energy Nexus Demand for these resources will grow substantially owing to an increase in the global population. Tackling problems pertaining to one commodity will be linked to supply and demand for the others. Demand for food, water, and energy will grow by approximately 35, 40, and 50% respectively owing to an increase in the global population and the consumption patterns of an expanding middle class.

Food, Water, Energy Nexus Climate change will worsen the outlook for the availability of these critical resources. Climate change analysis suggests that the severity of existing weather patterns will intensify, with wet areas getting wetter and dry and arid areas becoming more so. Much of the decline in precipitation will occur in the Middle East and northern Africa as well as western Central Asia, southern Europe, southern Africa, and the US Southwest.