Energy and Climate Outlook: 2013 Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Massachusetts Institute of Technology Co-Directors: John Reilly Ron Prinn http://globalchange.mit.edu/Outlook2013/

Purpose and Scope Uses IGSM to look at the world’s current development path and determine the associated energy and climate implications. Incorporates 2020 emissions reduction targets G20 nations made at the 2009 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (i.e. Copenhagen pledges) and further specified in Cancun in 2010, showing how far these pledges take us, and what is at risk if we fail to push beyond these goals. Reports results for 3 broad groups: Developed countries (USA, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand) Other G20 nations (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, and several fast-growing Asian economies) The rest of the world 2 Outlook2013/

Major Findings Copenhagen-Cancun pledges nearly stabilize emissions in developed countries, but global emissions continue to grow rapidly (total global GHG emissions in 2100 will be almost 95% higher than 2010 emissions). Most emissions growth will be concentrated in other G20 nations and the rest of the world (total GHG emissions from those regions combined grow by almost 150% from 2010 to 2100). Emissions cuts by developed countries will have less impact on global emissions over time because, given Copenhagen-Cancun pledges, by 2100 emissions from developed countries are only about 13% of global GHG emissions. While emissions from fossil fuels are sizeable, other greenhouse gas emissions are also important (accounting for about 1/3 of total global GHG emissions by 2100). Copenhagen-Cancun pledges do not provide enough incentive to create the transformation needed in the energy system – such as wide-scale adoption of renewables, carbon capture and storage, or alternative propulsion systems in vehicles. In particular, by 2050 renewables compose only 5% of the global electricity mix. 3

Major Findings (cont.) Population growth drives increased electricity production as well as growing emissions (global electricity production increases by about 85% from 2010 to 2050 and CO2 emissions from electricity grow by 46%. Electricity’s share of total global CO2 emissions slightly decreases from about 36% in 2010 to 33% in 2050). Population and income growth fuel a significant increase in the vehicle fleet and cause CO2 and other pollutant emissions to increase, especially in developing regions (the global vehicle fleet doubles by 2050 and among other G20 countries the fleet grows by about 3.6 times. Emissions from transport grow by about 60% from 2010 to 2050, and remain about 20% of total global CO2 emissions). Global change will accelerate with changes in global and regional temperatures, precipitation, land use, sea level rise and ocean acidification (temperature is projected to increase by 3.5-6.5oC by 2100 relative to the 1901-1950 mean, the global precipitation anomaly increases from 0.02 mm/day in 2010 to a range of 0.25-0.42 mm/day in 2100, global sea level rise due to thermal expansion increases from 0.1 m in 2010 to a range of 0.4-0.62 m in 2100, and ocean acidity changes from 8.05 pH in 2010 to about 7.85 pH in 2100). 4

Major Updates in the 2013 Outlook Population Data: New UN population data (The 2012 Revision replaces The 2010 Revision) is incorporated into the model. Compared to the previous projections, the global population is higher by nearly 370 million in 2050 and by 700 million in 2100. The largest increases are in China, India and Southeast Asia. Economic Growth: Regional economic growth assumptions reflect the latest International Monetary Fund Outlook (IMF, 2013) through 2015 and our own long-term projections. Compared to the 2012 Outlook, the most substantial changes are in China, Europe and Russia where GDP growth is slightly lower (reductions in annual GDP growth are around 0.1-0.2%). Natural Gas Availability: Increased estimates of shale gas resources and domestic policies in China to promote natural gas are represented. Global natural gas consumption is 8% higher in 2050 than in the 2012 Outlook. Natural gas usage in China more than triples in 2050 compared to the 2012 Outlook. Renewable Electricity: Policies supporting renewables in the USA and EU are updated. By 2050 renewable electricity in the USA and EU increase by 35% and 11%, respectively compared to the 2012 Outlook. Global electricity from renewables in 2050 is about 13% higher than in the 2012 Outlook. Emission Policies in China and EU: China’s policy is now only applied to CO2 emissions. In the EU, the emissions trading scheme (ETS) is extended beyond 2020, reducing the cap on power stations and other fixed installations by 1.74% every year. Additional Outlook Reporting: Electricity mix; Results for temperature, precipitation and ocean pH changes at a spatial level; Radiative forcing; Temperature change is reported relative to the 1901-1950 mean instead of relative to the year 2000. 5

Global Population (UN, 2013) The world’s population is projected to surge past 9.6 billion before 2050 and reach 10.8 billion by the end of the century. Much of the growth will happen in developing regions (i.e. Middle East, Africa and Latin America). (UN, 2013) 6

World GDP Labor productivity will continue to grow and will be a source of growth in GDP. Global GDP will grow 7.5 times between 2010 and 2100 (real GDP growth= 2.3%). Per capita income will grow in all regions, but that growth will be more rapid in developing regions – while income will still remain well below that of developed countries. 7

Global Energy Use As population and incomes increase, energy needs and desires will increase – almost doubling energy use by 2050. Most energy (~80%) will come from the same sources currently utilized: coal, oil and natural gas. There is an abundance of fossil fuel resources: Coal ~180,000 EJ Oil ~ 35,000 EJ Gas ~ 29,000 EJ By 2050 fossil resources remain plentiful- their cumulative use to 2050 is: Coal ~8,000 EJ Oil ~ 9,000 EJ Gas ~ 7,000 EJ 8

Energy Use by Major Group Nuclear and hydropower will increase mostly in developing nations, but not significantly without mandate or policy changes. Energy use overall stabilizes in developed countries, grows substantially in other G20 nations (to ≈500 EJ), and grows in the rest of the world to about what is used presently by the developed world. 9

Energy Intensity by Region While energy consumption will increase over time, energy use per unit of GDP generally decreases about 40% from 2010 to 2050. This reflects the improvement in energy-efficiency and rising energy prices caused by resource depletion and carbon policies. 10

Electricity Use As population grows, electricity demand increases, growing by 60% by 2050. By 2050, ~60% global electricity is from coal and natural gas. Electricity emissions increase about 46% from 2010 to 2050 (rising from 11.2 Gt CO2 to about 16.4 Gt). Meanwhile, the share of total CO2 emissions from electricity falls from 36% in 2010 to 33% in 2050. 11

Electricity Use by Major Group Natural gas, nuclear, and hydropower mostly increases in developing countries, particularly China. Renewables increase in USA and Europe. Electricity use overall stabilizes in developed countries, but grows substantially in other G20 nations and the rest of the world. 12

Vehicle Stock Private Cars and Light Trucks As population grows, vehicle use increases – doubling globally by 2050 and growing by about 3.6 times in other G20 nations (i.e. China and India) where population and incomes grow rapidly. Transport emissions increase about 60% from 2010 to 2050 (rising from 6 Gt CO2 to about 9.6 Gt). However, the share of total CO2 emissions from transport is about the same in 2010 and 2050 (around 20%). Private Cars and Light Trucks 13

Vehicle Stock by Region Vehicle use in developed countries will grow slightly. Significantly more automobiles will be in other G20 nations by 2050. Vehicle use in the rest of the world is projected to rise moderately to more than double present-day levels by 2050. 14

Land Use To support the increasing global population, there will be an increasing need for cropland. Although biofuel use has been associated with rising food prices, that connection seems negligible given that only about 1% of land is used for biofuel production. If biofuels take a larger share of energy demand, the impacts could be much larger. 15

Land Use by Major Group Most land-to-agriculture, and other changes, will occur in the less-developed regions (i.e. Africa and Latin America have significant amounts of forest and grassland that could be used for crops). 16

Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions With more power plants and industrial activity, more cars and trucks on the road, and more cropland and livestock, most sources of GHGs will grow. Fossil fuel CO2 emissions will continue to constitute about 2/3 of total emissions Due mostly to uncontrolled emissions from agriculture, energy production and other industrial activities. 17

GHG Emissions by Major Group Emissions in developed countries decrease ≈10% in the near term (b/c of pledges), then remain constant after 2020. Slow growth in emissions in other G20 nations, but unless targets are extended, emissions increase 130% contributing ≈55% of global emissions by 2100. Due to population growth and the absence of climate policy, the rest of the world’s emissions will nearly triple by 2100. 18

Current Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Looking at the GHG concentrations in our atmosphere, it shows that to meet the climate goals discussed broadly amongst nations, global emissions need to peak very soon. This chart shows that will not be the case. The well-known seasonal cycle, due largely to strong effects of northern hemisphere vegetation on CO2, is smoothed to show the underlying trend. 19

CO2 Concentrations Future concentrations of CO2 will rise substantially as emissions rise: approach 750 ppm by 2100 and continue to rise. Outlook scenario lies between the SRES scenarios A2 and A1B, and between the RCP scenarios RCP6.0 and RCP8.5.  20

GHG Radiative Forcing GHG radiative forcing continues to increase: reaches 7.5 W/m2 from about 3 W/m2 in 2010. Outlook scenario lies between the SRES scenarios A2 and A1B, and between the RCP scenarios RCP6.0 and RCP8.5.  21

Climate Sensitivity Because Climate Sensitivity (CS) is uncertain, we developed 3 climate scenarios that capture the uncertainty in the Earth’s response to the cooling from aerosols and warming from greenhouse gases, corresponding to CS=2oC (low), CS=2.5oC (median), and CS=4.5oC (high). For each CS scenario, a five-member ensemble is run with different representation of natural variability. Natural variability is represented by different random sampling of observed surface wind over the ocean and different initial conditions in the atmosphere and land components. 22

Temperature Increase Using the previous 3 scenarios, by 2100 the mean global temperature is projected to increase from about 1 degree Celsius in 2010 to 3.5 to 6.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 (relative to the mean temperature in 1900-1950) 23

Regional Temperature Change By 2100 temperature increases in North America, Europe, and Asia exceed those in Africa, Australia, and South America. 24

Mean Surface Temperature Polar regions warming more than the rest of the planet. 25

Precipitation Projected increase in global precipitation anomaly from 0.02 mm/day in 2010 to a range of 0.25-0.42 mm/day in 2100. 26

Precipitation Geographic patterns vary with some areas (e.g., Indonesia) projected to become wetter and some areas (e.g., The Caribbean) projected to become drier. 27

Sea Level Rise Projected increase in global sea level rise due to thermal expansion from 0.1m in 2010 to a range of 0.4-0.62 m in 2100. 28

Ocean Acidity As CO2 concentrations increase, oceans become more acidic (measured by seawater pH, lower pH= higher acidity). Today: pH= 8.05 Oceans are absorbing about 1/3 of the CO2 emitted. 0.1 pH drop since pre-industrial times. 2100 and Beyond: drop of 0.2 pH to 7.85pH strongly affecting marine organisms. Corals are likely to cease to exist with 7.7pH. 29

Ocean Acidity By 2100 most locations are projected to reach the levels of 7.7-7.85 pH. 30

Preparing for Tomorrow Today While the world has made progress, much more effort is needed to avoid dangerous climate change. The Copenhagen-Cancun pledges do not take us very far in the energy transformation ultimately needed to avoid the risk of dangerous warming. Even if policy efforts in developed countries are successful in holding emissions constant, the emission increases of other nations – growing and industrializing – will contribute to further increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and climate change. 31