Ireland’s Energy Outlook Lawrence Staudt Centre for Renewable Energy, Dundalk IT

Overview Context Irish energy trends Irish energy options Irish energy scenarios Conclusions

Context “The trouble is that no realistic technological, economic and political strategies for the warding off of the impacts of a decline in conventional oil supply are in sight.” Society of Danish Engineers and the Danish Board of Technology (2004)

Context – Irish Kyoto performance Source: SEI

Context – Oil and Gas Supply Security Source: ASPO

Context – Oil and Gas Supply Security

Source: Wikipedia

Context – Oil and Gas Supply Security Source: Volvo

Context – Oil and Gas Supply Security

source: Economist magazine

Context summary We are not meeting our climate change commitments Fossil fuel prices are volatile and rising for the forseeable future, threatening the economy While demand for oil continues to increase, we are at the peak of world oil production, which will now decline

Overview Context Irish energy trends Irish energy options Irish energy scenarios Conclusions

Irish energy trends (consumption) Source: SEI

Irish energy trends Source: SEI

Irish energy trends (energy imports) Source: SEI

Irish energy trends (consumption forecast) Source: SEI

Irish energy trends (renewable energy) Source: SEI

Irish energy trends (renewable electricity) Source: SEI

Base Load Generators MW 500 MW Coal Peat (Must-run) CHP (Must-run) Combined Cycle Irish energy trends (ESB plant mix) That’s enough base load generators to satisfy minimum system demand That’s more than enough base load generators to satisfy minimum system demand twice over… Source: D. O’Connor

Overview Context Irish energy trends Irish energy options Irish energy scenarios Conclusions

Irish energy options – coal? Large coal reserves worldwide, but ultimately not sustainable Coal is greenhouse gas intensive Large-scale sequestering of CO 2 is still in the concept stage Conclude: coal can only aid the transition toward energy sustainability, along with oil and gas

Concerns about cost, waste disposal, security, construction time In Ireland nuclear electricity generation appears to be socially unacceptable The European Nuclear Society (euronuclear.org) states that “all 439 world-wide operated nuclear power plants can be supplied for several decades” with world uranium reserves, i.e. nuclear develop- ment is fuel supply limited just like fossil fuels Conclude: nuclear fission will not aid the transition toward energy sustainability in Ireland Irish energy options – nuclear?

Cost concern Grid integration concern – supply variability and availability Huge indigenous renewable energy resource (see next slide) Virtually no greenhouse gas emissions Will not be affected by fossil fuel price volatility Conclude: renewable energy presents the only known possibility for energy sustainability in Ireland Irish energy options – renewables?

resource practicable annual energycomments wind2164 TWh e /y primarily onshore water 240 TWh e /y wave, tidal and hydro bioenergy367 TWh th /y primarily wood the rest2 TWh e /y PV 45 TWh th /y solar, waste Conclude: Ireland’s primary energy sources will be “wind, wave and wood”, and with these we can meet our national energy demand* *(185TWh/y, reducing to ~100TWh/y due to energy conservation) Sources:ESBI/ETSU, Total Renewable Energy Resource in Ireland, 1997 ESBI, Accessible Wave Energy Resource Atlas : Ireland : 2005 KMM, Marine Current Resource Study for Ireland, 2004 KMM, Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Resources, 2003 ESBI, Updating the Renewable Energy Resource in Ireland, 2004 Renewables – resource magnitude

Irish energy options – renewables? Source: All- Island Grid Study

Irish energy options – renewables? Source: All- Island Grid Study

Overview Context Irish energy trends Irish energy options Irish energy scenarios Conclusions

Irish energy scenarios Fossil fuel prices are volatile and increasing We are one of the world’s highest contributors to global warming on a per capita basis Ireland presently imports >90% of its energy Ireland has a massive indigenous RE resource, that is available at reasonable cost There is presently no other commercial technology that can ultimately replace fossil fuels Conclude: It is a prudent and conservative policy for Ireland to embark on a substantial renewable energy development programme.

We will use everything available, but “wind, wave and wood” will be our primary energy sources For electricity: wind and wave For heat: bioenergy (wood) and heat pumps For transport: electric vehicles, with some biofuels Irish energy scenarios

Can the economy sustain the capital investment required? What is the time frame over which we must make this transition? This has been investigated using the ECCO model of the Irish economy ( Irish energy scenarios

ECCO Model results: Business-as-usual will not work, whether the oil peak is now or in 2030 If we launch a substantial national programme for energy sustainability, the economy can cope with the capital investment required, but only if the oil peak is later rather than sooner Our options appear limited Irish energy scenarios

“If the time horizon for the impending peak in the production of cheap conventional oil is as short as one or two decades or less, the problems involved in handling the situation are of a specific, practical nature. Therefore, economic policies should not rely on general, theoretical assumptions that technological progress will ensure sufficient supplies of oil or substitutes for oil.” Society of Danish Engineers and the Danish Board of Technology (2004)

We need urgent actions, such as: Large-scale energy conservation Large-scale development of onshore and offshore wind energy Large-scale development of bioenergy Large-scale development of wave and tidal energy Interconnection with Britain and Europe Irish energy scenarios

More actions: Inclusion of aeroderivative gas turbines in the generation mix Development of the grid to allow substantial generation in the west of the country Large-scale demand-side management Development of electricity storage facilities Irish energy scenarios

Overview Context Irish energy trends Irish energy options Irish energy scenarios Conclusions

The fossil fuel era can only be regarded as a useful but very brief period in human history Irish energy policy is only beginning to consider a sustainable energy future The Fossil Fuel Era

Conclusions The price of energy is set to rise for the foreseeable future as fossil fuels decline This threat creates an opportunity for renewable energy, which offers the only known possibility for energy sustainability

Conclusions “Denmark has a renewable future” – Lars Bytoft, Chairman, the Danish Society of Engineers (Energy Plan 2030) This is even easier to envisage in Ireland A renewable energy future is desirable, possible and inevitable