Hydro-diplomacy for Water Cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan By: Ashfaq Mahmood 3 June 2014

Organization of Presentation Water Resources of Kabul River Potential Projects by Afghanistan on Kabul River Pakistan’s Vulnerability Climate Change Conflict Potential Hydro-diplomacy for Water Cooperation

Kabul-Chitral River Basin

Schematic Diagram of Kabul River

Water Sources of Kabul river Sr No Sub-basin Billion m3 MAF % of total flow at border 1 Logar-Upper Kabul 0.5 0.4 2.5 2 Panjsher 3.3 2.6 16.7 3 Chitral 10.5 8.5 54.5 4 Lower Kabul (including 1-3) at border) 19.3 15.6 100 5 Net generated within Afghanistan 8.8 7.1 45.5 6 Availability at Attock 23.5 19 7 Rabi Kharif 4.9 18.5 15

Storage and Power Potential of Kabul River Sr No Sub-basin B m3 MAF MW Water Demand 1 Panjsher 2.19 1.8 410 1/3 rd of water availability 2 Logar-Upper Kabul 1.31 1.1 Twice the water availability 3 Lower Kabul 1.3 1.0 761 4 Total 4.8 3.9 1171

Power Projects on Kabul River

Kabul Stream Flow (Av. Monthly)

Pakistan’s Vulnerability on Kabul River Water Contribution to Indus = 23.5 bm3(19) MAF Water Received at the Border =19.3 bm3 (15.6 MAF) Contribution of Chitral River = 10.5 bm3 (8.5 MAF) Contribution from Kabul and other Tributaries = 8.8 bm3 (7.1 MAF) Projected Future Use Potential in Afghanistan = 3.8 bm3 (3.1 MAF) Net Future Availability across the border = 15.4 bm3(12.5 MAF) Existing Rabi and Kharif uses will suffer.

Effects of Climate Change Glaciers in the Pamir and Hindu Kush mountains shrunk by 30 % in the last half century Rising temperatures/global warming will result in at least 10% reduction in precipitation in the next 50 Years. Increased summer flows in shorter time spans accentuating floods in next few years. It will be followed by shortages in the long run. Poverty, food and electricity prices, urban migration affecting millions of people on the cards. At present severe drought at least once in 10-15 years. This frequency will in increase.

Conflict Potential Threat to Existing Uses in Pakistan 13 potential dams in Afghanistan with storage capacity of 4.93 bm3 (4 MAF). Early Kharif and Rabi crops likely to suffer Rising water demand in Afghanistan for urban, mining, irrigation and environmental flow (3.9 billion m3/year) Threat of climate change—scarcity. Major brunt to be faced by Pakistan. Possible diversion of Chitral River by Pakistan Poor watershed management Lack of hydro metrological data gathering and sharing Lack of studies on ground water. Outside Promptings, vested interests.

Hydro-Diplomacy with Afghanistan Promote Cooperation and Equitable Sharing of Benefits: Forming Stake Holder’s Fraternity, exchange visits and interactions Sharing of Knowledge and Experience Joint Projects , Joint Ventures, Joint Studies Extend Supporting Hand, establishing water institutions, Data Collection and Management Funding for cooperative activities Media Management Institutional Arrangements- - The Driver of Cooperation: Afghan Cell with appropriate funding and staff (re-locate) Pakistan Afghanistan Joint Commission for Water Cooperation Formulation of Treaty/Agreement in an atmosphere of mutual cooperation and understanding.

Conclusions Embark upon a Water Cooperation Initiative to precede negotiations of Treaty. Set up Joint Commission. Provide funds to support cooperative activities.

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