I NDEPENDENT W EALTH M ANAGEMENT Client Name Market Analysis / Fourth Quarter 2014.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Investment Strategy Perspective The Post Election Outlook Hope and Change or More of the Same? November 2012.
Advertisements

Hedge fund flows on pace to nearly double 2012
April 2015 Charts of Interest. 2 Soaring Valuations, Stalling Momentum? Since its post-financial crisis nadir in March 2009, the S&P 500 Index has soared,
Client Name Market Analysis / Fourth Quarter 2009.
Monetary Policy Committee Financial Markets Developments J. Pandoo Head – Financial Markets Operations Division 14 July 2014.
First Quarter Investment Outlook Prepared February 6, 2015.
Taiwan Treasure at Tough Times Nicholas Kwan Regional Head of Research, Asia
Economic and Market Recap April Equity and Fixed Income Markets IndexMar (%)QTR (%)2014 (%)2013 (%)2012 (%)2011 (%)2010 (%) S&P/TSX Composite.
Emerging Markets Dividends An Enduring Theme September 2012.
Keith Forslund, Senior Portfolio Manager
3 March 2004 Hong Kong Baptist University 1998 Superannuation Fund.
Saxo Bank OUTLOOK 2011 Saxo Bank’s HQ in Copenhagen June 24, 2015.
An Introduction to Mutual Funds
Mutual Funds and Hedge Funds Industry Research Fund Industry.
5 September 2003 Hong Kong Baptist University 1998 Superannuation Fund.
Mercer’s Climate Change Research 2011 to 2015
An Introduction to Mutual Funds
Rebound July 2015 Presented by: Eric Lascelles, Chief Economist.
Board of Regents, State of Iowa First Quarter 2001 Performance Review Mark E. Brubaker, CFA Vice President Marc E. Friedberg Senior Associate Paul M. Jakubowicz.
| 1 EO /15 | 1 Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee | 1 EO /15.
Martin Arnold Director - Research Analyst ETF Securities.
Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC, PhD President/CEO/CIO Dheenu Sivalingam, MBA AVP/CCO/Senior Analyst 1405 Medical Arts Building 324 W. Superior Street Duluth, MN.
Kevin M. Wilson, PhD Chairman/CEO 1405 Medical Arts Building 324 W. Superior Street Duluth, MN Office: Toll Free: Fax:
THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.
2Q | 2011 Guide to the Markets As of March 31, 2011.
19-1 Financial Markets and Investment Strategies Chapter 19.
Presented by: Duncan Sinclair, Chairman Marie Bray, Finance Director 15 August 2012.
Robertson, Griege & Thoele Investment Market Analysis January st Quarter Market Review Global Markets Rebound st Quarter Market Review.
Rebuilding confidence Han de Jong Group Economics March 2012.
EO /11 | ‹#› Not FDIC Insured May Lose Value No Bank Guarantee EO /11 | 1.
Equity income: a niche asset class Neil Margolis, Portfolio Manager May 2007.
Presented by: John Fulton, Non-Executive Chairman Marie Bray, Finance Director 13 August 2014.
Economic Update Mark Rider, Head of Investment Strategy.
1 Regional Economic Outlook Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Masood Ahmed Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department International.
The Montgomery Institute Investment Proposal December 2013.
SM Key Private Bank Page 1 CATHOLIC FOUNDATION FIXED INCOME FUND Investment Performance As of March 31, ¾ Years annualized (commencing 07/01/95)
© 2007 Northern Trust Corporation northerntrust.com N O R T H E R N T R U S T G L O B A L I N V E S T M E N T S  Edward Casey Richard Inzunza, CFA June.
Saxo Bank OUTLOOK 2011 Saxo Bank’s HQ in Copenhagen October 14, 2015.
January 2014 Rebecca H. Patterson Chief Investment Officer Bessemer Trust The Year Ahead: Looking for Surprises.
City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.
Economic & Market Recap May Equity and Fixed Income Markets.
THE ALTERNATIVE UNIVERSE. DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The valuation.
Prudential Balanced Fund (PRUBF1) November 2011 Fixed information Licensed Date: 5 October 2006 Listing date: 4 December 2006 Base Currency: VND Tenure:
Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC, PhD President/CEO/CIO 1405 Medical Arts Building 324 W. Superior Street Duluth, MN Office: Toll Free:
An Introduction to What are Mutual Funds?  Mutual funds are a type of investment that takes money from many investors and uses it to make investments.
2000 Year in Review January, 2001 SEI Investment Advisory Group.
Kevin M. Wilson, PhD Chairman/CEO 1405 Medical Arts Building 324 W. Superior Street Duluth, MN Office: Toll Free: Fax:
© 2008 RiverSource Distributors, Inc. All rights reserved. Securities products are distributed by RiverSource Distributors, Inc., Member FINRA. RiverSource.
Kevin M. Wilson, PhD Chairman/CEO 1405 Medical Arts Building 324 W. Superior Street Duluth, MN Office: Toll Free: Fax:
1 JANA’s Quarterly Capital Markets & Asset Allocation Update – September 2014.
Market Review February 29, 2016 INTEREST RATES Month-End 2/29/16 Month-End 1/31/16 Year End 12/31/15 Fed Funds Rate Yr Treasury DJ.
2015 Investment Outlook Yuntaek Pae, PhD, CFA Associate Professor of Finance, Lewis University.
1 Beyond the Low Interest Rate Environment INSURANCE SUMMIT 2016 Presented by: Dan Byrnes, CFA Principal & Senior Portfolio Manager AAM - Insurance Investment.
Chapter 19 Convertibles, Warrants, and Derivatives 19-1.
THIRD QUARTER 2012 RESULTS.  Year-over-year revenue growth of 5.5% to $32.0 million, at the high end range of guidance  Adjusted fully diluted EPS of.
From Turmoil to Recovery, What’s Next? Jean McGowan, CFA February 16, 2010.
1 The Power of Dividend Growth DISCLOSURE This information has been provided by RBC Global Asset Management Inc. (RBC GAM) and is for informational.
Strategies for Fixed Income in the Current Environment
Changes to emerging markets strategy in MLC’s Inflation Plus portfolios March 2017 This material is not for circulation to retail investors.
Technology Investment Overview: Trends and Cycles
Looking Ahead to 2017 Manning & Napier’s Outlook Prepared for:
MLC Index Plus portfolios’ strategy update
Market Recap and Outlook 2017
Under-rated assets in an over-priced world
Timeline of Major Political and Economic Events
Saxo Credit Impulse Monthly Focus:
Market linked debentures
De-risking in a Low and Rising Interest Rate Environment
Cambria Armor Dividend Strategy Cambria Armor Growth Strategy
2018 CULS Market Trends Andrew Hook 22nd November 2018.
Presentation transcript:

I NDEPENDENT W EALTH M ANAGEMENT Client Name Market Analysis / Fourth Quarter 2014

4Q 14 Market Review 2014  Large-cap stocks have experienced an unusually strong and long-lasting period of gains.  The S&P 500 rose almost 14% and avoided even a modest 10% “correction” for the third year in a row.  Developed international stocks lost nearly 6% and emerging-markets stocks were flat. These returns reflect the significant headwind presented by the strengthening U.S. dollar.  Contrary to expectations, the 10-year Treasury yield declined further and bond prices rose. The investment-grade bond index was up nearly 6% for the year and municipal bonds also fared well. Credit- sensitive sectors such as high-yield and floating-rate loans lagged. Market Analysis 4Q2014 2

4Q 14 Asset Class Returns Through 12/31/2014 Past performance may not be indicative of future returns. 3 Market Analysis 4Q2014

4Q 14 The Dollar Rally Negatively Impacted Foreign Stock Returns  While the U.S. ended its QE purchases in late 2014, Europe seems set to embark on their own version of QE and are implementing accommodative monetary policies in an effort to support growth and prevent deflation  This has resulted in historic interest rate differentials and a rally in the U.S. dollar, now at an eight-year high as of Dec. 31  A stronger dollar reduces returns on investments denominated in foreign currencies Market Analysis 4Q2014 4

4Q 14 Despite the Recent Outperformance of U.S. Stocks it is Unwise to Extrapolate Performance 5 Market Analysis 4Q2014

4Q 14 Stock Markets Go Through Cycles And It’s Impossible To Predict Which Market Will Outperform and More Importantly Get The Timing Right 6 Market Analysis 4Q2014

4Q 14 Rising Wages Would be Healthy for the Economy but Could Have Negative Implications for Profit Margins and Earnings Growth 7 Market Analysis 4Q2014

4Q 14 The Long-Term Case For Global Equity Exposure Remains Compelling 8 Market Analysis 4Q2014

4Q 14 Contrary to Expectations, Long-Term Interest Rates Declined in 2014 While Short-Term Rates Increased 9 Market Analysis 4Q2014

4Q 14 The U.S. Economy Appears to be in Good Shape at Least in the Near Term 10 Market Analysis 4Q2014

4Q 14 Corporate Profit Margins Are Near Historically High Levels 11 Market Analysis 4Q2014

4Q 14 Europe Continues to Fight Deflationary Headwinds Market Analysis 4Q

4Q 14 Despite The Poor Economic Backdrop, European Stocks Look Attractive Relative to U.S. Larger-Cap Stocks  Our expected returns for European stocks relative to U.S. stocks are higher across our scenarios while having similar downside risk  European companies are currently under- earning relative to what we think is their longer- term normalized earnings power in large part due to the challenging economic conditions in the Eurozone  The risk of deflation has been somewhat discounted in European stock prices, but not enough to warrant adding to them at this point  If deflation were to take hold in Europe as it did in Japan for many years, European stocks may have significant downside Market Analysis 4Q

4Q 14 Emerging-Markets Stocks Offer Higher Return Potential But There Could Be Greater Shorter- Term Downside Risk  Emerging markets have continued to face shorter term (though intermittent) headwinds  E.g., the slowdown of growth in China and the adjustment to more normal levels of interest rates  These recent events have not undermined the longer term positive investment thesis for emerging markets.  We believe quality active managers can add a lot of value in this region through differentiation amongst countries and individual companies Market Analysis 4Q

4Q 14 Global Central Banks Continue to Influence Financial Markets and Remain a Source of Uncertainty Going Forward Market Analysis 4Q

4Q 14 Oil Prices Have Fallen Nearly 50% From Their June Highs Market Analysis 4Q

4Q 14 Our Economic Scenarios Reflect a More Positive Outlook Market Analysis 4Q

4Q 14 Asset Class Return Estimates Reflect a Wide Range of Outcomes –And Our Portfolio Positioning Seeks to Balance the Extremes Market Analysis 4Q

4Q 14 Estimated Asset Class Returns Across Our Scenarios Market Analysis 4Q

4Q 14 S&P Year Return Estimates Under Each Scenario Market Analysis 4Q

4Q 14 Additional Disclosure Disclosures: This document has been provided to you as a response to an unsolicited specific request and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer or any advice or recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial instruments and may not be construed as such. The factual information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable but it is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to its accuracy and is not to be regarded as a representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the information’s accuracy or completeness, nor should the attached information serve as the basis of any investment decision. We are not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. We are not responsible for the formatting or configuration of this material or for any inaccuracy in its presentation thereof. This document is intended exclusively for the use of the person to whom it has been delivered and it is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT AN INDICATION OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. There is a risk of substantial loss associated with trading commodities, futures, options, derivatives and other financial instruments. Before trading, investors should carefully consider their financial position and risk tolerance to determine if the proposed trading style is appropriate. Investors should realize that when trading futures, commodities, options, derivatives and other financial instruments one could lose the full balance of their account. It is also possible to lose more than the initial deposit when trading derivatives or using leverage. All funds committed to such a trading strategy should be purely risk capital. Market Analysis 4Q