Climate-smart agriculture : Action for reduced vulnerability of Agriculture and Food Systems to Climate Change Dr Robert Zougmoré Regional Program Leader West Africa Climate change adaptation days, First Edition, April 2014, Ouahigouya, Burkina Faso

2 1.West Africa in brief 2.Key challenges 3.Plausible future scenarios of agriculture 4.Needs for climate-smart actions Outline

Socio economic overview of West Africa Vegetation and Land use Under-five mortality is between 100 and 200/1000. The majority of the countries have a life expectancy of between 50 and 60 years. Population in 2010 was about 290 million. Agricultural sector employs 60 % of the active labor force contributing 35 % of GDP. In 2008, per capita GDP ranged from US$128 in Guinea-Bissau to more than US$1,500 in Cape Verde, with all other countries having less than US$ 500 An average of about 70–80 percent of the population lives on less than US$2 per day

Irrigable Land 8.9 million ha Arable Land 236 million ha 10.3 % exploited in West Africa 10 % developed Significant pastoral and fisheries resources However, West African economies are especially vulnerable to climate change as a result of their heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture. Natural Resource Endowment in WA

5 Major challenges increase agricultural production among resource-poor farmers without exacerbating environmental problems and simultaneously coping with climate change (adaptation).

6 To 2090, taking 18 climate models Four degree rise Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy Science >20% loss 5-20% loss No change 5-20% gain >20% gain Length of growing period (%) Length of growing season is likely to decline..

7 Scenarios for the future

Analytical framework Integrates modeling components (macro to micro, to model range of processes, from those driven by economics to those that are essentially biological in nature (IMPACT, HYDROLOGY, DSSAT, GCMs…) Used hundred of scenario maps, models, figures, and their detailed analysis To generate plausible future scenarios that combine economic and biophysical characteristics to explore the possible consequences for agriculture, food security, and resources management to 2050 National contributors from 11 countries reviewed the scenario results for their countries and proposed a variety of policies to counter the effects of climate change on agriculture and food security.

Population and income 1.A significant increase in the population of all countries except Cape Verde – pessimistic: population of all countries will more than double except Cape Verde 2. Income per capita in the optimistic scenario could range from US$ 1,594 for Liberia to US$ 6,265 for Cote d’Ivoire. 3.Income per capita does not improve significantly in the pessimistic scenario.

Rainfall Change in average annual precipitation, 2000–2050, CSIRO, A1B (mm) MIROC, A1B (mm) Despite variations among models, there is a clear indication of: 1.changes in precipitation with either a reduction in the heavy- rainfall areas, particularly along the coast, 2.or an increase in areas of the Sahel hitherto devoid of much rain. 3.Southern parts of Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria will be dryer

Changes in yields (percent), 2010–2050, from the DSSAT crop model: CSIRO A1B MIROC A1B Maize Sorghum Groundnut

Regional/landscape implications Farmers and pastoralists may have to contend with new farming cultures including land tenure and changing food habits Drought and floods could affect productivity and even threaten the existence of plants and animals along the coast and the Sahel, respectively Spread of malaria and trypanosomiases in hitherto dry areas in the Sahel Heavy rains could pose a serious challenge to unpaved feeder roads vital for transport of inputs to farming areas and produce to market Coastal West AfricaSahelian region

How can smallholder farmers achieve food security under a changing climate?

14 We need climate-smart agriculture actions at all levels

Agriculture must become “climate-smart” sustainably increases productivity Increases resilience (adaptation) reduces greenhouse gases where possible and enhances the achievement of national food security and development goals

16 Farm and community: climate-smart practices, institutions Global: climate models, international agreements, finance Climate-smart agriculture happens at multiple levels National and regional: enabling policies, extension, support, research, finance

Approach where CCAFS in partnership with rural communities and other stakeholders (NARES, NGOs, local authorities…), tests & validates in an integrated manner, several agricultural interventions Aims to boost farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change, manage risks and build resilience. At the same time, the hope is to improve livelihoods and incomes and, where possible, reduce greenhouse gas emissions to ensure solutions are sustainable Concept of “climate- smart villages”

18 Climate-smart villages Index-based insurance Climate information services Climate- smart technologies Local adaptation plans Learning sites Multiple partners Capacity building Scaling up Policy Private sector Mainstream successes via major initiatives How it works?

19 Climate- smart village Climate services Weather insurance Designed diversification Mitigation /C seq Community management of resources Capacity building Partnership -NARS -Extension -NGOs -Universities -Developt. partners -Private sector -CBOs, Local leaders Climate-smart villages in Ghana (Doggoh), BF (Tibtenga), Senegal (Kaffrine), Mali (Cinzana), Niger (Kampa zarma) Concrete action at community level: 1.increase agricultural productivity and farmers’ income; 2.strengthen the resilience of ecosystems and livelihoods to climate change; 3.and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Examples of Successful CSA

21 NIGER Bringing back the Sahel’s ‘underground forest’ o 1980’s loss of trees led to severe soil infertility, crop failure, famine. o Land restored through farmer-managed natural regeneration (FMNR). o FMNR encourages farmers to regrow indigenous trees.

22 NIGER Success at scale o 5 million ha of land restored, over 200 million trees re-established. o FMNR spreading across southern Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali and Senegal.

23 NIGER Benefits for food production, adaptation and mitigation o Food production: additional half a million tonnes of grain per year. improved food security of 2.5 million people. yields of millet from 150 kg/ha to 500 kg/ha. o Adaptation : improved structure and fertility of the soil. water more accessible. o Mitigation: sequestration of carbon in soil, tree roots and wood.

24 WEST AFRICA SAHEL Water harvesting boosts yields in the Sahel o Sahel – Droughts common and farming difficult with sparse rainfall. o Changes in land management – stone bunds and zai pits.

25 WEST AFRICA SAHEL Success at scale o Contour bunds established on 200,000 to 300,000 ha. o Yields double those on unimproved land. o Tree cover and diversity increased. o Groundwater levels rising.

26 WEST AFRICA SAHEL Benefits for food production, adaptation and mitigation o Food production: predicted that the improved land will produce enough to feed 500,000 to 750,000 people. increased diversity of food, health benefits. o Adaptation: contour bunds able to cope with changing weather. o Mitigation: land management prevents further worsening of soil quality.

27 Upfront costs often substantial Brazil: US$ 250 million over two years Morocco: over US$ 1 billion per annum Vietnam: US$ 500 million in 2011 Strong government support is crucial  Policy support, e.g. secure land and resource tenure  Strategies for scaling-up  Institutional frameworks  Funding CAADP e.g. Maputo commitments, African Regional Strategy on Disaster Risk Reduction UNFCC e.g. Green Climate Fund, Least Developed Countries Fund, Adaptation Fund Multi-lateral e.g. IFAD Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Program, G8 Global Agriculture & Food Security Program Some private finance e.g. supply chain security, carbon markets, corporate social responsibility

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