Utah Economic Overview Utah Alliance for Economic Development October 4, 2011
“The probability of recession in the next six to 12 months is an uncomfortably high 40%.” Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics September 14, 2011
“The U.S. economy is surrounded and unable to break through enemy lines.” Wells Fargo Securities Economic Group September 7, 2011
“We are seeing the worst economic numbers since the collapses of Lehman Brothers in 2008…We are poised for a Lehman-like event.” Fareed Zakaria Global Public Square September 25, 2011
“We expect U.S. and European policymakers to do just enough to avoid another downturn…it is not hard to envisage substantially darker scenarios.” Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics September 14, 2011
“We have entered what I have called a dangerous new phase.” Christine Lagarde International Monetary Fund managing director September 24,2011
“Europe is on the verge of losing control of orderly solutions to its debt crisis.” Mohamed El-Erian Financial Times September 22, 2011
Utah Job Growth Monthly Year Over Percent Change Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Utah Labor Market Indicators August 2011 Utah unemployment rate7.6% U.S. unemployment rate9.1% Year-over Utah job growth rate2.9% Year-over U.S. job growth rate1.0% # Unemployed in Utah 102,000 # Discouraged workers in Utah 35,000-65,000 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services and Salt Lake Chamber
Utah Job Growth by Industry August 2010–2011 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Fastest Growing Economies in Utah August 2010–2011 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Employment by Gender Percent of Industry Employment, 2010
Prescription for Growth Stop doing harm. Pass a jobs bill. Pause all major discretionary regulations. Commit to a long-term deficit reduction plan. Progress with free trade agreements. Responsibly expand access to federal land/off shore drilling. Take a giant step toward entitlement reform.
Congress and the Obama Administration must follow through on plans for long-term deficit reduction, but also must provide additional near- term support to the economy. PARAPHRASED Ben Bernanke Federal Reserve Bank September 2011
President Obama’s Jobs Plan 10-Year Cost Tax cuts Payroll tax holiday (employees)$175 B Payroll tax holiday (employers)$65 B Accelerated depreciation$5 B Long-term unemployed tax credit$8 B Veterans hiring tax credit$0.1 B TOTAL TAX CUTS$260 B Spending Unemployment insurance reforms$49 B Infrastructure and infrastructure bank$60 B School renovations$30 B Aid to state and local governments$35 B Other$18 B TOTAL SPENDING INCREASES$192 B
Headwinds European debt crisis Political dysfunction Stock market volatility Consumer confidence Japan and MENA crises
Tailwinds Downward trend on oil prices Demography is destiny Utah is global Fiscal prudence Downtown Rising Marquee expansions PAC 12 Huntsman/Romney
Utah’s Future Plea for national economic leadership. Measured outlook. Let’s lean into the curve. Still…No place I’d rather be.