Beyond Damnation: Nam Theun 2 and The Future of Hydropower in the Mekong Prashanth Parameswaran Presentation to Hitachi Center for Technology Colloquium 10/19/2011

Agenda Overview Method Key Findings & Recommendations

Overview

The Mekong In Peril? Rapidly growing energy demand and regional connectivity in the Mekong region (GMS, ASEAN) Hydropower projects affect Mekong River, which sustains over 60 million people How to reconcile economic development with social and environmental imperatives? Is Nam Theun 2 (NT2) in Laos a “model project” in this regard as touted by WB and ADB?

Nam Theun 2 in Laos First conceived 1980s, delayed until construction in Largest private sector cross- border power project ($, 2005) Over US$2 bn revenues to GOL in 25 yrs(7-9% budget) Part of GOL plan to become “battery of Southeast Asia” despite poor dam record (90s) One party, authoritarian, corrupt government

Method

Project Structure Combination of secondary research and 19 interviews covering most Mekong countries April – May 2011: Trip preparation May – Mid-July 2011: Internship at Singapore’s Energy Market Authority (EMA) Mid July – Sept 2011: Interviews and research in Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia Sept – Dec 2011: Produce articles/present findings Dec 2011 – January 2012: Second phase of research focusing on GMS and ASEAN Connectivity

Selected Interviewees Energy Studies Institute, Singapore Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Mekong River Commission Cambodian Trade Ministry Nam Theun 2 Power Company, Laos Chulalongkorn University, Thailand International Rivers Mae Fah Luang University, Thailand Former WB & ADB consultants EarthRights International

Key Findings & Recommendations

Key Findings: NT2 as a Model? YesNo Revenue ManagementResettlement Plan Stakeholder ConsultationLack of Contingency Planning Transparency in ProcessDeclining Bank Leverage vs. New Actors

Recommendations ActorRecommendation LaosStrengthen WREA for project monitoring LaosIndependent review of dam assessments WB/ADBNeed to increase leverage post-construction WB/ADBFocus more on project asymmetries New Hydro DevelopersAdopt international best practice standards

The End