Federal Personal Property: A Prognostication ABik LLC May 29, 2013

A Prognostication When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people, those who let it happen, those who make it happen and those who wondered what happened.” -John M. Richardson, Jr.

The Context "When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change." -Wayne Dyer

The Prism  Background  Personal Property  U&D  Systems  Sales  FAS-egov  Congressional Staffer

The Cycles  Election  Technology  Property

Election Cycles 2014, 2016, 2018  Prognosticators  Cook  Rothenberg  Ratings  Attention Span

Election Cycles Observations  First Rule  Pressures  Political/Budget/Economy  Expensive & Perpetual  Departures

Executive Branch Data  Federal Salary [FedSmith]  Average Washington, DC - $101,263 [2013]  Average Career Civilian USA - $74,804  Average Age 46.9 [OPM 2011]  Average Career Salary $77,505 [OPM 2011]  Years of Government Service 16 [CBO 2007 Report]

Legislative Branch Data  Salary [Congressional Management Foundation Report & SHRM]  $20,000 - $29, %  $30,000 - $39, %  $40,000 - $49, %  $50, , %  $60,000 - $69, %  $70,000 - $79, %  $80,000 - $89, %

Legislative Branch Data  Salary [Congressional Management Foundation Report & SHRM]  $90,000 - $99, %  $100,000 - $109, %  $110,000 - $119, %  $120,000 - $129, %  $130,000 - $139, %  $140,000 - $149, %  $150,000 - $159, %  $160,000 or more, but less than Member of Congress -2%

Mini Observation  There is a significant difference in Congressional Staff salary versus Federal Career Service salary  $30,000 to $59,000 – 58 Percent  Staff The Internet

Capitol Hill Observations*  Age  37 percent - Millennials [1981 and after]  30 percent - Generation X [ ]  30 percent - Baby Boomers [ ]  4 percent - Veterans [born before 1945] *CMF & SHRM Report 2012

Capitol Hill Service*  67 percent years old  36 percent 0-2 years of Service  21 percent 3-5 years of Service  17 percent 6-10 years of Service *CMF & SHRM 2012 Report

Capitol Hill Observations*  74 Percent of Staff have under 10 years of Legislative Service  What’s their job? *CMF & SHRM 2012 Report

Capitol Hill Observations  2014 Human Resources Challenge  2 percent

Technology Cycles  Mobile  Discussion  Media  4.3, 30, 140,  Social  Speed  Attention Span

Moore’s Law “The observation that, over the history of computing hardware, the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. The period often quoted as "18 months" is due to Intel executive David House, who predicted … a doubling in chip performance ….”history of computing hardware transistorsintegrated circuitsIntel -Wikipedia

Once Upon A Time… “I think that there is a world market for maybe five computers.” Thomas Watson Chairman of IBM 1943

Technology “Twitter offered a very restrictive set of protocols that awaken the imagination: what can I do with 140 characters that will be meaningful to others? The solution has proven to be pretty much endless. And do you know what? If the right person is telling the story, I’ll read a tweet stream of sandwiches all day long.” John Hodgman Actor & Writer

Personal Property Cycle  Excess  Surplus  Sales

Internal Agency Redistribution GSA Cycle Federal Utilization Donation Cycle Public Auction GSA Screening Cycles Within Federal Agencies --Dept. of Defense --Law Enforcement --Fire Fighters Between Federal Agencies --Social Security Admin --F.B.I. --Small Business Admin --others State Agency for Surplus --State Government --Local Governments Towns, cities, villages Schools, police, fire -- Not-For-Profit Entities Shelters, etc

Murphy’s Law  Mathematician Augustus De Morgan on June 23, 1866 "Supplement to the Budget of ParadoxesAugustus De Morgan  "Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong“  “Anything that can possibly go wrong, does.” -Wikipedia

Experience “There will never be the fair nor equitable distribution of stuff when it hits the fan.”

Evidence Based Government “Its pretty much a blanket statement that we throw money at a lot of things and never really study what we are getting for that money, and that’s a shame.” Peter Orzag President Obama’s Former Budget Director Washington Post, April 16, 2013

To survive and succeed, every organization will have to turn itself into a change agent. The most effective way to manage change successfully is to create it. Peter Drucker The Challenge

Thoughts "Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.“ - Albert Einstein

Some Questions… Who are your customers? What is their definition of success? What are you measuring? Why? Who are your stakeholders? Are there a commonality of goals between the stakeholders and the customers?.

The Future… When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people, those who let it happen, those who make it happen and those who wondered what happened.” -John M. Richardson, Jr.

The Future… Which One…? Let it happen Make it happen What just happened?.

Questions??? Victor Arnold-Bik

A Thoughtful Perspective… Would you like to know the secret of success? Here it is. If you want to be a successful husband or wife… see life from your spouse's point of view. If you want to be a successful parent… see life from your child's point of view. If you want to be a successful businessperson…learn to see life from your customer's point of view. If you want to be a successful employer, learn to see life from your employee's point of view.“ - Rick Warren