1 CALI 2011 “The New Leaders of the Investment World: Countries, Sectors and Projections” I st International Meeting of the Pacific Basin Cali, Colombia 5 th October, 2011 DR HENRY LOEWENDAHL fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd

2 About the presentation Focus on Greenfield Foreign Direct Investment (GFDI) Unique data on GFDI & corporate strategies from fDi Markets

3 New leaders of the investment world COUNTRY TRENDS AND FORECASTS

4 Global trends GFDI capital investment ($bn) PR (out) Pacific Rim share of global: 38%-43% ( ). Share of GFDI outflows 41% to 49% AsiaPacific share grew 30% to 37% and LAC from 8% to 18% (fastest growth in world) Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence. Includes estimates. *Projection for 2011 based on Jan-Sept data Global LAC AP PR (in)

5 MNE strategy for Pacific Rim How companies segment the market No. FDI projects investing in Pacific Rim by export market served GFDI in Pacific LAC Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd. Includes export markets for all activities (services, manufacturing, raw materials) GFDI in Pacific AsiaPac

6 LAC country performance Share of GFDI in LAC (Jan-Sep 2011) Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd. Small countries outperforming larger ones. Pacific Rim countries performing strongly

7 AsiaPac country performance Share of GFDI in AsiaPac (Jan-Sep ‘11) Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd. Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand best performing

8 Where FDI is coming from Source of GFDI jobs worldwide Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd Europe in crisis. AP+LAC booming. North America flat. Middle East in decline

9 Why invest in the Pacific Rim? Location determinants for GFDI projects Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd. Includes only GFDI projects in the Pacific Rim

10 Rank in growth of GFDI projects New Zealand Panama (Argentina, Brazil) Mexico Taiwan Canada Indonesia USA Singapore China Colombia Hong Kong Costa Rica South Korea Chile Pacific Rim best performers GFDI forecasts for 2011 Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd. Projection for 2011 Rank in growth of GFDI new jobs Nicaragua Papua New Guinea Chile (Argentina) Indonesia Taiwan Panama South Korea Mexico (Brazil) Colombia Singapore Vietnam New Zealand El Salvador

11 Investment leaders in 2015 Inward & outward GFDI job forecasts Source: fDi Intelligence FDI Forecasting Model Inward FDI Outward FDI Top 5 countries in 2015: Half of inward and outward FDI job creation globally

12 New leaders of the investment world SECTOR TRENDS AND FORECASTS

13 FDI by business activity GFDI jobs worldwide by activity Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd Major growth in manufacturing following the recession. Growth in R&D, front/back office and ICT infrastructure. Huge decline in construction.

14 FDI by industry sector GFDI jobs worldwide by top 10 sectors Source: fDi Markets database, fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd Top 10 sectors account for over 60% of global GFDI job creation

15 Sub-sector forecasts 2015 High growth sub-sectors (#projects) Cloud computing forecast to be fastest growing FDI sub-sector worldwide over next five years. Rapid growth forecast in renewable energy segments Source: fDi Intelligence FDI Forecasting Model

16 New leaders of the investment world SUMMARY

17 Summary – country trends Financial crisis signalled major change in global FDI Pacific Rim = over 40% of inward GFDI and 50% of outward LAC and AsiaPac fastest growing locations for GFDI worldwide AsiaPac has reached Western Europe levels of outward GFDI Shift in global value chains to accelerate in next 5 years 26 of 30 fastest growing FDI locations in 2011 are emerging markets Top 4 leading locations in 2015 all forecast to be emerging markets Outward GFDI from China forecast to nearly triple in next 5 years MNEs see Pacific Rim in terms of AsiaPac, LAC, & North America Integration across the Pacific Rim driven by GFDI in LAC serving North America and to a lesser extent AsiaPac The Pacific Rim will become the major destination and source of GFDI in next 5 years

18 Summary – sector trends & competitiveness Export orientated activities rebound in 2011 Fastest FDI growth in manufacturing, R&D, and export services Strong growth in FDI across many sectors in 2011 Retail sectors, software, telecom, renewables, minerals, metals, food & drink, industrial machinery, auto components Fastest growth forecast in emerging technology areas Cloud computing, renewable energy segments, social media, semiconductors, ITO, KBO, education & training Pacific Rim countries competitive position Very strong for market-seeking FDI (national/regional) Overall attractiveness depends on skills, business climate, clusters and infrastructure more than government incentives Attractiveness for technology-based FDI requires sustained investment in education and R&D to match developed country levels

19 “In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they would”

20 CONTACTS Dr Henry Loewendahl Senior Advisor, Representing fDi Intelligence, Financial Times Ltd Managing Director, WAVTEQ Ltd Co-founder, Loco Software Ltd and ICA Incentives Ltd Skype/MSN: hloewendahl Linkedin: Henry Loewendahl M: +44(0) W: W: