New Dynamics of Security in East Asia May 18, 2006 Regional Anatomy I Ken JIMBO

Regionalism in Asia-Pacific / East Asia Political & Security Dimension 1) April 13Overview and Introduction: What is Regionalism? 2) April 20Regionalism & Regional Integration 3) April 27Regionalism in Asia 4) May 11East Asian Community and East Asian Summit 5) May 18New Dynamics of Security in East Asia

Introduction: Understanding Asia-Pacific Security Security Environment in Asia-Pacific European Theater and Asia Pacific Theater Impact of the End of Cold War Strategic Circumstances US Engagement Rise of Multilateral Security Prevailing Double Track Approach New Dynamics of Security in East Asia Strategic Circumstances US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms

Warsaw Pact NATONATO European Theater and Asia-Pacific Theater (During the Cold War) Bilateral (Hub-Spokes) Alliances European Theater (Regional Approach) European Theater (Regional Approach) Asian Theater (Bilateral Approach) Asian Theater (Bilateral Approach)

Impact of the End of the Cold War Four Dimension In Europe … Dissolution of Warsaw Pact NATO Expansion European Security & Defense Policy (ESDP) ⇒ In Asia, Hub-Spokes Remain the Same! But … Four Dimension Strategic Circumstances US Engagement Rise of Multilateral Security Prevailing Double Track Approach

Declining of Large Scale Threat Demise of East-West Confrontation Transformation of USSR Rising Regional Agenda Korean Nuclear Crisis ( ) Taiwan Straits Tensions (1996) End of the Cold War 1) Strategic Circumstances

End of the Cold War 2) US Military Engagement Bush Sr. Administration ( ) East Asian Strategic Initiative (EASI) > Force Reduction Plan Clinton Administration ( ) East Asian Strategic Report I (EASR I, 1995) > US-Japan Alliance East Asian Strategic Report II (EASR II, 1998) > Comprehensive Engagement

End of the Cold War 3) Rise of Multilateral Security Track-I Framework ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF ) Track-II Dialogues Council for Security Cooperation in Asia Pacific (CSCAP) Northeast Asian Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD)

US East Asian Regional Security EASI-I (1990) US Department of Defense, A Strategic Framework for the Asian Pacific Rim: Looking toward the 21st Century. April 19, “Our friends and allies in East Asia are reluctant to enter into multilateral consultation on security concern for a variety of reasons. Foremost is the wide cultural, political and economic diversity among most of the Asian states which makes bilateral security arrangements much more appropriate” ―February 1990

US East Asian Regional Security EASR (1995) US Department of Defense, The United States Security Strategy for East Asia-Pacific Region, February 1995 “Some in the United States have been reluctant to enter into regional security dialogues in Asia, but I see this as a way to supplement our alliances and forward military presence, not to supplant them” ―February 1995

Prevailing “ Double Track Approach ” ( ?) Alliance Mechanism Deterrence/Response CBM / Preventive Diplomacy Cooperative Security US-Japan Security Alliance US-Korea Security Alliance ARF Korean Peninsula Taiwan Straits

New Dynamics of Security in East Asia (2001-Present) Strategic Circumstances US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms

New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 1) Strategic Circumstances Rise of Asymmetrical Warfare Terrorist Networks Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Lingering Traditional Risks Reloaded Korean Nuclear Crisis (2002-present) Taiwan Straits Rise of China Rising Military Capability “ Responsible Stakeholder ” ? (Robert Zoellick)

Traditional Risks Reloaded North Korean Missile Range (status 1994)

Traditional Risks Reloaded North Korean Missile Range (status 1998-)

Traditional Risks Reloaded Proliferation Risk A.Q. Kahn’s Nuclear Black Market

Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) 2001/05 Capability-Based Approach Static to Dynamic Defense Posture Transformation of US Military and the Global Posture Review (GPR) Reducing Size of US Forces Increase US Military Capability Enable Rapid Power Projection Regional-Global Forward Presence New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 2) US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia

Japan-US Alliance: Toward ‘ Global Alliance ’ “ Common Strategic Objective ” on Regional / Global Context Roles, Missions and Capabilities (RMC) Sharing Relocation of US Bases in Japan Korea-US Alliance: Constraint Transformation Future of Alliance Initiatives > FOTA > SPI Reduction of 12,500 US Troops from DMZ “ Cooperative Autonomous Defense ” New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 3) Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated

Region-wide Security Mechanisms ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Shangri-la Dialogue Sub-Regional Security Mechanisms Six-Party Talks Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Various Types of Military Exercises New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 4) Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation

Counter- / Anti- Terrorism Cooperation Proliferation Security Initiatives (PSI) Trafficking Controls / Information Sharing Non-Traditional Security Cooperation SARS / Aviation Flu Anti-Piracy Cooperation Transnational Organized Crimes New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 4) Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms

Members Functions Inclusive / Regional （ Geographical Cooperation ） Exclusive / Functional （ Regional Security Complex ） Forceful Competitive (Deterrence/Response) (Collective Security) Japan-US Alliance Korea-US Alliance Unforceful Cooperative （ CBM / PD ） Shanghai Cooperation Organization ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Shangri-la Dialogue Proliferation Security Initiative Anti-Terrorism Cooperation Non-Traditional Security New Dynamics of Security in East Asia