Climate Change and Human Security: The effects of Climate Change in Southern Africa Lwandle Mqadi IIED International Fellow

Background Current key documents which have lighted the impacts of climate change in the Southern Africa Region include: Background paper on Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Africa (September 2006) The Stern Review (October 2006) Up in Smoke 2: Africa (December 2006) Summary for policy makers, report on Working Group 2 of the Fourth Assessment Report by IPCC (April 2007) Key regional documentation (WWF,LEAD,CSAG-UCT,WITS,MAT,CEEPA etc.)

The Southern Africa Region: Highlighted key vulnerable sectors Water resources and Energy, Agricultural sector, Human health sector, Human Settlements and Coastal Zones Ecosystems and biodiversity, and Forestry sectors.

Effects on water resources and energy Current climate change factors and predicted future climate change factors: Increased droughts (longer dry spells) followed by intense flooding resulting in the following: Increased threat on the region’s existing water sharing schemes whilst flooding has caused immense damage on already fragile water infrastructure, this situation is said to be exacerbated due to climate change e.g. Zambezi river basin and Limpopo River Basins Increased threat on fresh water resources which also have direct impacts on water demand capacity for the region. This has direct impact on issues of accessibility and affordability of water resources within the region; Hydropower schemes within region in Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe are also currently being highly affected. This has direct impact on energy supply for the region which in turn has direct impacts on the region’s economy. Access and affordability to potable water whilst reduction in river flows associated with population growth is accentuating water scarcity. Increased sharing of water –regions’ water Direct impacts on hydro-electricity generation (i.e. indicating direct impact on economic development) “A need for wide inter-basin integrated water resources management plan at all developmental levels”

Effects on the agricultural sector Current climate change factors and predicted future climate change factors: Increased droughts ((2000, 2002, 2005, 2006) followed by intense flooding (2000,2002, 2005 and 2007)resulting in the following: Increased impacts on subsistence farming and on key crops for the regions e.g. grain production Direct impacts on food and feed prices thus raising issues of accessibility and affordability of food; and Direct impacts on local economies and sustainable livelihoods as there is still dependency within rural areas on agricultural economies;

Effects on the human health sector Current climate change factors and predicted future climate change factors: Increased droughts followed by intense flooding resulting in the following: Increase in water borne diseases; and Increase in malaria and related diseases. Vulnerability to health impacts is a function of climatic as well many other non-climatic factors such as: poverty, conflicts and population displacement, access and availability and management of health services, awareness and attitude towards preventive measures.

Effects on Human Settlements and Coastal Zones Increase in frequency of floods and other extreme events are currently degrading overall infrastructural development activities thus direct impacts on public sector development; and Sea-level rise, coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, and flooding are also having direct significant impacts on the livelihoods of coastal communities and their local economies.

Effects on Ecosystems and Biodiversity Most communities within the region have high dependence on natural resources for subsistence thus largely contributing to land degradation and desertification; High impacts on the regions biodiversity have direct impacts on local economic development and livelihood security especially for nature-based economies within the region.

Current Programmes within the Southern Africa Region Integrating Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change into Sustainable Development Policy Planning and Implementation in Eastern and Southern Africa: Kenya, Mozambique and Rwanda, Tanzania and Madagascar : This project aims to contribute to the mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change into development planning and implementation in southern and eastern African countries. The mainstreaming of adaptation will occur at the project or field level as well as through integration of broader policies related to development priorities. The World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS) project aims to provide information to improve efficient management of the world’s water resources. It is based on a series of regional projects providing technology and training to monitor hydrological parameters (rainfall, riverflow and evaporation) in the world’s river basins. In Southern Africa (SADC-HYCOS funded by the EU).

Current Programmes within the Southern Africa Region Coping with Drought and Climate Change: Kenya, Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Ethiopia: This project aims to develop and pilot a range of coping mechanisms for reducing vulnerability of farmers and pastoralists to future climate shocks. Components include piloting coping strategies, improving early warning systems, assisting governments in developing drought plans and integrating climate change/drought across sector policies and finally replicating and disseminating the results. Community-based Adaptation (CBA) Programme, Global, including Morocco, Namibia, Niger: This project is aimed at: developing a framework, including new knowledge and capacity, that spans the local to the intergovernmental levels to respond to unique community-based adaptation needs; identifying and financing diverse community-based adaptation projects in a number of selected countries; and capturing and disseminating lessons learned at the community level to all stakeholders, including governments. This project is to be funded through GEF’s SPA and to be implemented by UNDP Community based Adaptation projects with pilot in South Africa, Mozambique and Tanzania using the SouthSouthNorth methodology for identifying, designing, funding, and implementing CBA projects

Thank you