Kazakhstan’s Second National Communication to the Conference of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN Ministry of Environment Protection Valentina Kryukova Bonn, 2009

Key challenges Uncertainty of Kazakhstan’s status in UNFCCC Capacity building of experts dealing with modeling and scenario simulation for vulnerability assessment, adaptation and mitigation. Barriers to get relevant data Lack of research on climate change impact to water resources Achieve balance between the energy sector and the environment protection

The linear coefficient of temperature trend of the surface air on the average annual (a), winter (b), and summer (c) for the period of 1936 – 2005 А The average annual temperature increased: by 0.31 C /10 years ; by 0.50 C/10  years – in winter; by 0.21 C/10  years – in summer. Б В

The linear coefficient of the precipitation in annual, winter (a) and summer (b) periods (mms/10 years) for the periods 1936 – 2005. There was no definite trend in the annual and seasonal rainfall on the territory of Kazakhstan a) b) c)

Climate change status: main conclusions Ubiquitous increase of seasonal and annual temperature Increase of climate aridity in deserts and semi-deserts areas of Kazakhstan, as well as in adjacent areas. Increase of total rainfall in the western and northern parts of Kazakhstan and in the central zone. The same trend was seen in the mountainous parts of the South and South-East of the country. However this had less impact on raising air temperatures. Degradation of glaciers has been recorded by 0.8% in South-East mountains and 1% in glacier storage.

Change of annual temperature and precipitation in Kazakhstan with change of GHG concentration according to different scenarios temperature average P-50 strict А1F1 mild B1 +1,4 С up to 2030; 1,21,9 ºС (1,3 ) 1,52,2 ºС (1,7 ) +2,7 С to 2050; 2,54,0 ºС (3,0 ) 1,62,6 ºС (2,0 ) +4,6 С to 2085 5,7 to 8,0 ºС (6,2) 3,13,4 ºС (3,3) precipitations average P-50 strict А1F1 2% to 2030, - 2 up to 8 % (2,2 %) by 4% to 2050 - 4 to plus 15 % (3,7 %) by 5% to 2085 8 to 28 % (6,5 %) mild B1 to 2030 0‑8 % (3,0 %), to 2050 minus 3 to plus 9 % (1,7 %) to 2085 minus 2 to plus 13 % (4,1 %)

The complex impact of the surface air temperature and precipitation intensity can lead to shifting northward the borders of humidification zones. 1971-2000 Increase in rainfall, even by 20–25%, will not have a favorable impact on the ecosystems, agriculture and water resources.. 2071-2100, А1F1 The complex influence of the temperature and the amount of the falls may lead to the shift of wet zonal borders to the North (to 250-300 km by 2085).

Expected climate change: main conclusions Increase of seasonal and annual temperatures Increase of precipitation in the winter period Increase of the annual amount of precipitations. Decrease of rainfalls in the summer period since 2050. On the major territory of Kazakhstan increase of precipitations does not compensate increase of air temperature. All scenarios of GHG concentration change tend to increase of aridity.

The potential impact of the climate change Water Resources will increase on the average from 1 – 4 % to 14 - 22% in mountain areas will decrease by 7-10 % in the plain areas The degradation of the mountains glaciations and its impact on the resources of the river flow in the basin of the Lake Balkhash

Potential impact of climate change Agriculture Grain production will be unfavorable for growing spring wheat in the northern part of Kazakhstan Yield productivity I will decrease in the central, eastern parts by 25–60 %, in the northern part by 70 – 90% versus the mean perennial values Pastures Change in structure, composition and decrease in biodiversity. Decrease in soil biomass by 30-60 %. Cattle breeding

Needs for adaptation measures To improve standards and legislation, to develop a strategy for reducing GHG emissions and increasing sinks. To streamline climate change issues into Sectoral Programs and Strategies. To improve the network of systematic surveys, a forecasting system, modeling and early emergency information. To enhance research on climate change impact and its consequences to water resources, populations health and the economy. To increase awareness on climate change issues and measures needed for decision makers, business and public.

Total GHG emissions in Kazakhstan, Tg CO2-equivalent GHG Sources/sinks 1992 1994 1998 2000 2004 2005 Energy 280 261 128 138 185 197 Fuel combustion 246 236 113 119 164 176 Fugitive emissions 34 25 15 19 21 23 Industrial processes 7 11 14 Agriculture 46 16 17 LULUCF -7 -5 -6 Waste 5 6 8 Total emissions 345 308 156 172 228 243 Net emissions 338 303 151 165 221 237 A primary source of GHG emissions is energy (fuel combustion) amounting for 72% in 2005. The second contributor is agriculture, the proportion of which has reduced from 15% in 1990 to 9% in 2005. In 2005 fugitive emissions contributed around 9% of Kazakhstan’s total emissions. Industrial processes contributed 6% and the proportion of waste was 3%. Absorption by LULUCF amounted 2.5 %.

Direct GHG emissions without sinks, Gg т СО2-eqv In 2005, Kazakhstan’s CO2 emissions, without carbon absorption by forests, were 195.0 Tg – this is almost 80% of the national total. The share of methane was around 16%, and nitrogen oxide was about 5%. The main sources of methane were fugitive emissions and agriculture, and 95% of N2O emissions were by agriculture

GHG emissions from «Energy: fuel combustion» by main sources, Gg CO2-eqv. Industry Transport Other sectors Other Energy activity is the main source of anthropogenic GHG emissions in Kazakhstan. The greatest contribution to the emissions from energy category (88%) was made by the fossil fuel combustion that amounted to 175.7 Tg CO2-equivalent of emissions.

Dynamics of fugitive CH4 and CO2 emissions, Gg of CO2-equivalent. The category of fugitive emissions is the largest source of СН4 emission. It is also the second largest contributor to the total national GHG emissions at 8.7 % in 2005.

СН4 and N2O emissions from agriculture in Kazakhstan, Gg СО2-eqv. The agriculture sector is the third largest contributor to the total national GHG emissions. In 2005 the proportion of emissions from this category was 9.4% of total national GHG emissions

Policy and measures on CC mitigation Key documents relating to Kazakhstan’s environmental policy are: Country Development Strategy to 2030; The Transition Concept to Sustainable Development for 2007 – 2024; The Industrial and Innovation Development Strategy to 2015; The Ecological Security Concept for 2004 – 2015; Updated “Indicative Plan for socio and economic development for 2002 – 2005” with perspective for 2010 – 2015; The Government Program for 2006 - 2010; The Government Transport Strategy for 2015 (April 2006); The Ecological Code (adopted in January 2007); The Desertification Combat Program for 2005 – 2015; The Government Program on energy efficiency and renewable resources use for sustainable development to 2024.

Dynamics of total CO2 emissions under the various scenarios of economy development of RK The СО2 emission scenarios were built using the MARKAL model.

The GHG emissions reduction potential from the main economy sectors by the strategic development and plans, effective technologies application, mln. t СО2 Branches/scenarios Years Energy sector 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Base scenario 122,8 139,0 153,1 162,5 183,1 The efficient growth of current and new power stations using effective technologies 119,0 126,5 132,8 131,1 138,3 Transport sector 17,1 22,3 29,2 36,5 44,9 Introduction of “Euro 2 - 4” standards 20,7 24,5 27,4 30,1 Oil and gas sector 23,1 25,6 29,4 31 41 Use of the effective, environmentally clean technologies 22,4 24,4 26,7 28,9 36,0 The total GHG emissions in the base scenario 188,8 215,2 242,5 264 306,03 The total GHG emissions using more effective technologies 183 197,6 211,4 216,1 234,1 The total GHG emissions (potential) applying effective technologies and mitigation measures 5,83 17,55 31,57 47,93 71,98

Recomendations That could be useful for other countries in the process of preparation of their SNC Establishment of national system for GHG emissions inventory Capacity building on modeling and scenarios simulation and interpretation Participation in workshops, trainings, international meetings Awareness raising on climate change issues to decision makers and business and public Preparation for TNC

Thank you for your attention!