BARLEY & OILSEEDS UPDATE 1 27 November 2009 Sam Tainsh General Manager Trading GrainCorp Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals.

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Presentation transcript:

BARLEY & OILSEEDS UPDATE 1 27 November 2009 Sam Tainsh General Manager Trading GrainCorp Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills

Overview World Oilseeds World Canola Oils demand World barley Australian barley Currencies 2Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills

International Oilseed S & D 3Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills Source: Oil World

International Canola S & D 4Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills Source: Oil World

Canola Stocks to Use Ratio 5Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills Source: FutureSource, Oil World

Biodiesel Production 6Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills Source: Oil World

Growing Food Oil Consumption 7Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills Source: USDA

Oilseed Summary Strong demand underpinning current values Focus will be on the South American bean crops Oilseed production recovery from last year likely The increased rapeseed plantings this year are needed to support growing demand Major exporting nations are watching the Chinese Blackleg issues 8Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills

Global Feed Grains 9Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills Source: USDA

Global Barley Supply & Demand 10Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills Global Barley Supply and Demand Attribute2007/082008/092009/10 Beginning Stocks (1000 MT) 21,283 19,775 30,214 Area Harvested (1000 HA) 57,242 55,447 55,142 Production (1000 MT) 132, , ,824 MY Imports (1000 MT) 15,649 19,646 16,831 MY Exports (1000 MT) 15,465 20,096 17,243 Feed and Residual (1000 MT) 92,204 99, ,424 FSI Consumption (1000 MT) 42,326 43,350 44,199 Total Consumption (1000 MT) 134, , ,623 Ending Stocks (1000 MT) 19,775 30,214 32,003 Stocks to Use15%21%22% Source: USDA

Barley Production Area 11Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills Source: ABARE, ABS

Australian Barley Production 12Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills

US Corn Demand 13Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills Source: USDA

The Australian Dollar 14Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills 33% Increase Source: FutureSource

Ukraine & Russian 15Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills RUB: -18% UAH: -43% Source: FutureSource

Questions 16Grain Storage | Supply Chain Logistics | Grain Trading |Port Terminals | Merchandise | Allied Mills