Environment Canada ADAPTING TO A CHANGING CLIMATE ADAPTING TO A CHANGING CLIMATE Presentation by: Don C. MacIver A/Director, Adaptation and Impacts Group (AIRG), Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, Downsview, Ontario, Canada

Environment Canada Mission Statement To provide scientific expertise and leadership to Canadians on the environmental, social and economic risks, vulnerabilities, impacts and adaptations associated with atmospheric variability and change Vision Canadians become well-adapted to current and future changes in the atmosphere and prosper by making adjustments in their social, economic and environmental activities.

Environment Canada ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH ADVISORY BOARD ADAPTATION & IMPACTS RESEARCH GROUP AIRG (MSC-ACSD) DIRECTOR DECISION-MAKERS ADVISORY BOARD SPECIAL PROJECTS ADMINISTRATIVE COORDINATOR CIDA CICS UNIV. OF VICTORIA UNIV. OF REGINA OURANOS UNIV. OF TORONTO UNIV. WATERLOO UNIV. OF BRITISH COLOMBIA UNIV. OF REGINA YORK UNIVERSITY U.N.B. UQUAM OTTAWA GLOBAL/ REGIONAL CLIMATE SCENARIOS REMOTE/LOCAL CLIMATE OBSERVATIONS HIGH IMPACT WEATHER/ CLIMATE WATER RESOURCES INTEGRATED ADAPTATION MODELS HUMAN HEALTH BIODIVERSITY ADAPTATION POLICY & SOCIO- ECONOMIC RESEARCH MSC REGIONS FEDERAL/ PROV./MUNIC. STAKE- HOLDERS MSC REGIONS OURANOS MSC LABS GREAT LAKES PROGRAM NWRI WATERSHED COMMUNITIES MSC LABS HEALTH CANADA MSC LABS AGRIC. FORESTRY PARKS MSC LABS MSC REGION NRCAN SAIB PIAB

Environment Canada Engagement Forecast and Preventive Natural and Autonomous Scale Site Local Regional National International Who Scientists Canadians Communities Governments Private Sector Actions Technology Regulatory Institutional Economic Behavior Timing Anticipatory (pro-active) Responsive (reactive) AIRG - Adaptation and Impacts Research Profile 1 million in external research funding–CCAF, PERD, CIDA, OCIPEP, Health Canada … Scientists are invited lead and contributing authors for international science assessments (eg. IPCC, IJC...), authors of books/ publications, keynote speakers, members of expert teams, Adjunct Professors … AIRG peer-reviewed publications – 52 in last 3 years plus book chapters and International Assessment Chapters Adaptation and Impacts Group Performance Indicators:

Environment Canada Private Sector Community Results Management/Accountability Framework Examples of AIRG Clients/Partners Network Results Management/Accountability Framework Examples of AIRG Clients/Partners Network MSC R &D Strategy Vulnerabilities (0-14 days) Science Community Policy Community Public Community (all Canadians) Names/ Organization No of Partners Names/ Organization No of Partners Names/ Organization No of Partners Names/ Organization TOTAL Vulnerabilities (scenarios) climate change TOTAL Vulnerabilities (past & current) climate variabilities and extremes TOTAL

Environment Canada Regional Climates and Climate Change Model Outputs Scenarios, Statistical-based Analysis, Downscaling, Mapping Impacts Models and Assessments Water Resources, High Impact Weather, Human Health, Food Security, Biodiversity, Co-Benefits, Socio-Economic... Climate Change Impacts Research “Helping Understand the Threats and Opportunities” Natural and Human-induced Climates and Climate Change Science, Policy, Public Questions Proxy Climate Models, Variabilities and Extremes Ice Cores, Tree-rings, Chemistry... Current Climate Models, Variabilities and Extremes Remote and Earth-based Observations GHG Emissions Population, energy, economic models Atmospheric Concentrations Carbon Cycle and Chemistry Models Global Climate Change Model Outputs Coupled global climate models

Environment Canada Climate/Climate Change Impacts, Assessments and Policy Research Communicating the Science, Science Advice, Int. Conventions Mitigation Measures Kyoto/ GHG reduction targets Adaptation Adjustments Responses/co-benefits/alternatives Adaptation Strategies Kyoto/reduce vulnerabilities/uncertainties Adaptation Options Models Multi-Criteria, Markal, Fractal, Neural,... Adaptation-Application Models Meteorological, Biophysical, Socio-Economic, Energy, Transportation, Human Health, Biodiversity,Urban... User Communities and their Decision Needs Science, Policy, Public and Private Sector Needs (Iterative Process) Climate Change Adaptation Research “Helping make the right decisions - based on sound science”

Environment Canada THE ADAPTATION CYCLE What do they adapt to (and why)? Who or what System adapts? How well do they adapt? What impacts Result? How do they adapt? System changes Adaptive capacity

Environment Canada ADAPTATION Stakeholders Traditional, Current and Future Knowledge-Information-Data-Models Science Understanding Prediction Decision-Makers Global Conventions/National Strategies Implementation Society Communication Education Adaptation Science Research/ Scenarios Monitoring/Data Management Assessments Adaptive Management Socio-economic sectors Ecosystems/Species Integrated assessments Adaptation Options Reduce vulnerabilities Enhance opportunities Options assessments

Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada Thank you to NRCAN - CCAF