Dinesh R. BHUJU Chief, Faculty of Science Nepal Academy of Science & Technology _____________________________________________________ SPECIES RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN HIGH ALTITUDES initiative of a national organization in the Himalayan discourse

Establishment 1982 Autonomous & Statutory Role envisaged: Think Tank Innovator Catalyst Facilitator Nepal Academy of Science & Technology Advancing science and technology for all-round national development

MOU between NAST & EvK2CNR in 1988 Pyramid Lab. built in 1990 Features: Glass & Aluminium, 3- storied, Ht 8.4m, Alt. 5,050m asl The Initiation PYRAMID LABORATORY

The Activities PYRAMID LABORATORY Research Areas: i. Environment, ii. Biodiversity, iii. Earth Sc, iv. Medicine & Human Physiology, and v. Clean Technology Missions conducted >500 involving143 scientific institutions from several nations.

NAST’s Initiatives RESEARCH IN HIGH ALTITUDES Anthropogenic Activities Biodiversity Knowledge Climate Change Impact

Climate Change Studies MAJOR AREAS Baseline Inventories 1) Agrobiodiversity 2) Mushroom diversity 3) Herbaceous vegetation Dendro-climatological Studies 1) Reconstruction of env. history 2) Relationship between temp. & vegetation shift

Baseline Inventories AGRO-BIODIVERSITY Study Area Namche, Khumjung, Phortse, Dole, Luza, Fanga, Machermo, Gokyo, Tengboche, Debuche, Pangboche, Dingboche, Pheriche, Jorsalle, Monju and Phakdin (16 settlements) Methodology Questionnaire survey, sample collection & analysis

Major Findings Upper Limits (m asl) Staple crops: Barley 4,350; Buckwheat 3,930 Vegetables: Coriander 4,480, Radish/Turnip/Onion/Peas 4,359 Cauliflower, Carrot 3,930 Potatoes 4,700 (Tarnak) Ref. D Bhuju, A Giri, P Rana 2007 Baseline Inventories AGRO-BIODIVERSITY

Baseline Inventories MUSHROOM BIODIVERSITY Study Area: SNP Methodology Field visit, Collection & analysis Major Findings Richness 150 spp. Used locally 29 spp. Highest 3,500-4,000m asl Ref. A Giri, P Rana 2006

Baseline Inventories HERBACEOUS DIVERSITY Study Area Imja Valley 3,400-4,650m asl Methodology Sampling, Collection, Analysis Major Findings Richness 180 spp, Location recorded, 32 spp in higher range than previously reported Ref. E Paudel, D Bhuju, K Shrestha 2007

Objective Understand the impact of climate change on the distribution of forest vegetation in the Himalaya Methodology 1. Set-up permanent plots 2. Tree inventory 3. Tree core collection & analysis Site Tree-line Climatic Impact DENDRO-CLIMATOLOGICAL STUDY

Climatic Impact DENDROCHRONOLOGY Trees are nature’s ultimate environmental monitoring stations, make annual rings Dendrochronology, Method of scientific dating based on the analysis of tree-ring growth patterns Tree rings are called proxy- climate indicators

Pangboche, 4,050m asl Dendro-climatological Study PERMANENT PLOTS Deboche, Alt. 3,850m

BA (cm 2 /ha)DENSITY (n/ha) SPECIESPanbocheDebuchePanbocheDebuche Abies spectabilis Betula utilis Sorbus microphylla TOTAL MEAN DBHMAX DBH SPECIESPanbocheDebuchePanbocheDebuche Abies spectabilis Betula utilis Sorbus microphylla TOTAL Dendro-climatological Study RESULT: FOREST STRUCTURE ____________________________________________________

Dendro-climatological Study TREE CORE COLLECTION Core Collection Abies spectabilis Juniperus recurva Betula utilis Total About 300 from various sites Preservation, Mounting & Sanding

Bell shaped, poor regeneration in recent years Inverse J, accelerating recruitments in recent years Average age: Panboche 64 yrs; Debuche 64 yrs Max. age: Panboche 147 yrs; Debuche 207 yrs Dendro-climatological Study TREE CORE ANALYSIS

Climatic Impact DENDRO-LAB Lab Facility: 1. Lin-Tab digital positioning table for tree-ring analysis 2. Leica S4E stereo microscope 3. LintabTm swing arm stand 4. TSAP-Win Prof. software

Participating Institutions Central Dept of Env Sc. Tribhuvan Univ. Department of Plant Resources, GON The Standard Nursery Pvt Ltd Nepal Academy of Science & Technology College for Applied Sciences Dept. of Forest Research & Survey, GON Dept of Hydrology & Meteorology, GON National Trust for Nature Conservation Dept. of National Parks & Wildlife Cons. Ethnobotanical Society of Nepal Madan Puraskar Guthi Central Dept. of Botany, TU Climatic Impact DENDRO-TRAINING WORKSHOP Date: Jan 2008 Total Participants: 18 Resource Persons: Univ. of Padova

Climatic Impact DENDRO-CLIMATOLOGICAL STUDIES Langtang National Park NP Gaire, YB Dhakal, H Lekhak 2008; TU Abies spectabilis; Core: 210 Manaslu Conservation Area M Suwal 2009 UIB-TU; Gaire & Bhuju 2010 Abies spectabilis; Core: 148+ Manang (trans-Himalaya) KB Shrestha 2009; UIB, Norway Pinus roxburghii; Core: 133 Mustang (trans-Himalaya) E Udas; UG; Germany Abies spectabilis; Core: 109 Kathmandu Valley NP Gaire & DR Bhuju, NAST Pinus roxburghii; Core 65

Climatic Impact RESULTS: MANASLU There was new recruitments of seedlings and saplings in tree-line ecotone. The species limit has advanced from 3,673m asl in 1958 to 3,841m asl in 2007 with a total of 168 m upslope shift at the average rate of m per decade. The seedlings below tree-line have comparatively faster growth. ______________________________ Ref. M. Suwal 2010

Abies spectabilis Betula utilis Transect 1 Transect 2 Transect 1 Transect 2 Species limit/line Tree line Preliminary result: upward migration of Abies spectabilis by >1m/yr Ref. Gaire & Bhuju 2010 Climatic Impact RESULTS: MANASLU

Climatic Impact RESULTS: LANGTANG 1.There was significant -ve correlation between the tree growth & mean monthly min. temp. of Mar & Apr of the current year, Oct of the previous year, and mean of Mar-May temp. of the current year. 2.Though statistically insignificant, there was +ve correlation between ring width and mean monthly precipitation of the most of the months of current year and -ve correlation with previous year’ precipitation. ________________ Ref. NP Gaire 2008

Climatic Impact RESULTS: MUSTANG The positive response of temperature (previous Nov, current Feb-Mar-May) during the early and mid 20th century was either both discontinuous and showed no correlation with tree growth at later period (Feb-Mar) or it turned to be negatively associated with growth (previous Nov and current May). This recent change in sensitivity of tree growth and temperature variability was unclear. ____________________ Ref. E Udas 2010

Climatic Impact WHAT NEXT Extend the study area Strengthen the Dendro-Lab International collaboration