Intelligence Analysis Anne Lavery Principal Analyst ACPOS NIM/MoPI Team

Intelligence Analysis Analysis - Analysis is the process of breaking a complex topic or substance into smaller parts to gain a better understanding of it. complex topic Intelligence – A piece of information which has gone through a risk assessment process. “My neighbour is dealing drugs” “The off-licence down the road sells drink to under-agers” “Wee Gary from Shettleston assaulted that boy last week” Inputted onto the Scottish Intelligence Database (SID)

Intelligence Analysis Role of Intelligence Analyst Assess all the information and intelligence available Develop inferences Put together all the pieces of the jigsaw Prioritise risks to police service Target Profile Demographic / Trend

Analytical Jigsaw Allegation of Drug dealing at main street Anne Smith moved In to 5 Main street 3 months ago Anne Smith has convictions for drug dealing Jack Jones associates With Anne Smith Increase in break-ins To motor vehicles Around Main Street Someone called ‘Smithy’ selling drugs in area Increase police calls re loitering Near Main Street Allegation that blue Honda frequents Main Street every night Jack Jones is a major Drug dealer who drives a Blue Honda

Prioritising Risks Risk Assess the threats based on available information Consider factors such as risk to life, threat of disorder, impact on community, impact on reputation of force Influence decision making on resource allocation

Analytical Process RESOURCESRISKSRESULTS Police and partner resources directed to those areas that pose the most significant risk Analysis identifies key threats Analysis considers success and outcomes of activity – what does it means for risks Strategic Assessment Tactical Assessment Problem Profile Target Profile Tasking and Co-ordinating Process Results Analysis

NIM Products STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT Long term strategy PROBLEM PROFILE In-depth analysis of specific area or issue TARGET PROFILE In-depth analysis of specific individual or group TACTICAL ASSESSMENT Current Threats RESULTS ANALYSIS Assessment of success of activity – did we make a difference

Analytical Techniques Criminal Business Crime Pattern Network Operational Intelligence Market Profile Target Profile Results Analysis Demographic / Trend Risk Analysis WHO, WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, WHY AND HOW

Research Suggestions PESTELO Analysis –Political –Economic –Social –Technical –Environmental –Legal Risk Assessment –what are most important factors –How do we define harm Understanding causes of crime – links to other social issues

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