Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 From Broken Promise to Public Success: A Webinar on the World Bank’s 2010 Pledge to Basic Education

Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 Tonight’s story: Global basic education before the World Bank’s 2010 pledge The World Bank’s pledge Global basic education after the beginning of pledge implementation And now what. Main characters: World Bank International Development Association (IDA) Global Partnership for Education (GPE, formerly the Education for All – Fast Track Initiative)

Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 What was happening in 2010? a 220% increase a 9% decrease

Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 What was happening in 2010? a 353% increase a 1% increase

Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 What was happening in 2010? down 2% down 18%

Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 Enter the 2010 Pledge “[T]oday I am proud to announce that the Bank’s International Development Association (IDA), our Fund for the Poorest, will increase grants and zero interest loans for basic education by an additional $750 million over the next five years to This represents about a 40% increase in our basic education lending over the past five years for the poorest countries. These additional resources will be targeted toward countries that are off-track to reach the education MDGs by 2015, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In order to yield the highest impact, the Bank will seek to leverage these additional IDA funds to support low-income countries that receive financing from the Education for All Fast Track Initiative.” — Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, former Senior Managing Director of the World Bank, New York, September 20, 2010

POP QUIZ! Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 “[T]oday I am proud to announce that the Bank’s International Development Association (IDA), our Fund for the Poorest, will increase grants and zero interest loans for basic education by an additional $750 million over the next five years to This represents about a 40% increase in our basic education lending over the past five years for the poorest countries.” — Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, New York, September 20, 2010 Question 1 How much money does the pledge commit IDA to delivery to basic education from 2011 to 2015? Hint: Basic education lending over the previous five years ( ) for the poorest countries (IDA countries) was $4,891 million. Answer: Pledge=“a 40% increase in our basic education lending over the past five years for the poorest countries” Pledge = $4,891mil + (40% x $4,891mil) Pledge = $4,891mil + (0.4 x $4,891mil) Pledge=$4,891mil + $1,956.4mil Pledge = $6,847.4 million Pledge ≈ $6.8 billion

POP QUIZ! “[T]oday I am proud to announce that the Bank’s International Development Association (IDA), our Fund for the Poorest, will increase grants and zero interest loans for basic education by an additional $750 million over the next five years to This represents about a 40% increase in our basic education lending over the past five years for the poorest countries.” — Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, New York, September 20, 2010 Question 2 Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 What is the annual baseline for the pledge to increase grants and zero interest loans for basic education by an additional $750 million from ? Hint: Remember the answer to Question 1? Answer: Pledge=“an additional $750 million over the next five years to 2015” Pledge≈ $6.8 billion “an additional $750 million over the next five years to 2015”≈ $6.8 billion (annual baseline x 5 years) + $750 million ≈ $6.8 billion (annual baseline x 5 years) + $750 million ≈ $6,800 million (annual baseline x 5 years) + $750 million ≈ $6,800 million (annual baseline x 5 years)≈ $6,050 million annual baseline ≈ $1,210 million Annual baseline≈ $1.2 billion

Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 A Cause for Celebration!

Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 One year later… —UN Millennium Development Goals Summit, Tokyo, June 2011 A few weeks later… And then… —GPE Pledging Report, November 2011 Oh and then… —World Bank website: “The World Bank and Education - The Facts”, November 2011 Shortfall means $1 billion will need to be made up over next 4 years Pledge target

Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 One year later… Original baseline: $1.2 billion Revised baseline: $742 million

Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 What’s the difference? Original pledge's minimum commitment Revised pledge's minimum commitment A $2.3 billion cut (Original pledge ($6.8 billion) vs. Revised pledge ($4.5 billion) $107 million per year decrease (Starting at FY10 levels, the Bank can reduce IDA basic education funding by $107 every year and still meet pledge) A 9% decrease (Previous 5 years ( ) vs. 5 years of pledge ( )—which was supposed to be a 40% increase according to the original pledge)

Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 What’s happening in 2012? Sub-Saharan Africa: Worse : 9% decrease : 57% decrease GPE countries: Worse : 1% decrease : 32% decrease Sub-Saharan GPE countries: Worse : 18% decrease : 48% decrease

Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 How to Turn a $6.8 Billion Pledge into a $4.5 Billion Pledge into a $3.1 Billion Pledge $403 million + $1,502 million + $1,172 million $3,077 million = “0% left to reach pledge” Anything over $742 million per year is going into the “additional $750 million” pot. By this pledge-tracking method, if in FY11 IDA lending for basic education had totaled $1.5 billion (i.e., $758 million over the $742 million baseline), the pledge would have been met in the first year with just $1.5 billion.

Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 What now? Take it to the top—Dr. Jim Yong Kim Media action—Op-eds, letters to the editor, editorials For media tools, visit: Media Training Thursday, September 20 th, 9pm

Tony Baker RESULTS Global Grassroots Webinar September 9 th, 2012 THANK YOU Together we can make things right!