Climate Change in the Rogue Valley: Current Projections & Reasoned Responses Alan Journet / Professor emeritus, Southeast Missouri State University Now living in Applegate Valley Co-Facilitator For ppt:  Projects  Presentation Project  Scroll down to ‘SOCAN Presentations Delivered’

What incited my concern about climate change? 30 years teaching biology at Southeast Missouri State University: Mainly ecology, science methods.

What Determines Biological Community Distribution? Average Temperature. Average Precipitation. X

So What? MAJOR BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES OF THE WORLD These control the agricultural and forestry potential of our land Not only do these represent where our flora and fauna live…but

Intergenerational Justice Stewardship Level Playing Field Externalizing waste allows pollution of our air – Newer carbon-free technologies cannot compete with free waste allowance “What have future generations ever done for me?” Free? We all pay the price. 97% of climate Scientists agree – The planet is warming Human caused gas emissions are contributing Anthropocene Era CRITICAL VALUES

Are We Sacrificing Our Environment & Future For Short-term Economic Benefit?

1995 – Within two weeks - AML Bone Marrow Risk Assessment…. A Personal Example – Why I am addicted to Hopium

A Medical Issue Diagnosis and Response Prob. Of Survival I II III IV My Choices: 1 – Accept the diagnosis Conclude I have cancer, and undergo treatment. But they could be wrong…maybe I don’t have cancer. 2- Deny the diagnosis Conclude I’m fine, and decline treatment. But I could be wrong…maybe I do have cancer. What do you think you’d do? TIME IN MONTHS 12 24NOW AML: No treatment What do you think I did?

Global Temperatures 1880 – 2012 cf th warmest in the GISS record was hottest decade on record Nine of the ten hottest years recorded occurred in that decade GISS = Goddard Institute for Space Studies ⁰ F No-one under 36 has experienced a cooler than (20 th C) average year

Projected Temperature Trends in Pacific Northwest to Historic Data Projections Unavoidable Unmanageable Unknown

Rogue Valley Temperature History and Projections Ave – F Summer Ave – F Winter Ave – F Ave – F Summer Ave – F Winter Ave – F

Seasonal Patterns compared to average Average 1.5 – 4.0 ⁰ F Winter 1– 3.5 ⁰ F Summer 1 – 6.0 ⁰ F August 1.3 – 7.8 ⁰ F Average ⁰ F Winter ⁰ F Summer 5.6 – 11.8 ⁰ F August 6.7 – 16.8 ⁰ F

Projected Extreme 1 in 20 year Heat Events by Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. In addition to averages – extremes are important….

Projected Days > 100 o F Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

Projected Precipitation Seasonal Pattern – High Emissions Scenarios Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

Crater Lake (May, 2011)

Declining Mid-Elevation Snowfall 7,000 – 8,000 ft Source: Crater Lake National Park 25% Reduction N. California Below 7500’ 13% decline Above 7500’ 12% increase Applegate Lake

Courtesy Bill Bradbury

Jackson County Irrigation Ditches are critical for agricultural productivity For Grapes and Pears

CO 2, Temperature and Crop Production Increasing CO 2 may be positive, but increasing temp is negative Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

From Interstate 5 – Saturday July 27 th Wolf Creek Area North of Grants Pass Medford Mail Tribune – Glendale Fire July 29 th This could be worst fire season in 10 years

Western Wildfires & Climate Change

Western Wildfires & Climate Change

Wildfires 1 0 F makes difference between a high fire year and a low fire year. ( yellowstone-fires.html ) yellowstone-fires.html

Western Wildfires & Climate Change

Natural Community Condition Trends 1 - Elimination of spruce/fir/hemlock forest, 2 -Reduction in Douglas fir dominated association, 3 -Possible expansion of Ponderosa pine association, 4 -Expansion of Oregon oak chapparal association, 5 -Expansion of shrubland and grassland.

2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC AR-5 Fifth Assessment Report “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased.” Established in 1988 by U.N. Environment Programme and World Meteorological Union. Composed of thousands of atmospheric scientists and climate scientists the world who review literature, evaluate what is happening, and provide consensus summaries. Reported 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, and now 201/2014. Atmosphere: “Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850 …. In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years.” Likely = 66 – 100%

2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC 2008 The National Intelligence Council: National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030: Drought, severe weather, flooding and refugees, water and resource shortages. 97% of Practicing Climate Scientists agree with 2007 IPCC – 2009, 2010, 2013 peer-reviewed studies “Due to natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends. As one example, the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998– 2012; 0.05 [–0.05 to +0.15] °C per decade), which begins with a strong El Niño, is smaller than the rate calculated since 1951 (1951–2012; 0.12 [0.08 to 0.14] °C per decade). “It is virtually certain that globally the troposphere has warmed since the mid- 20th century.” Virtually Certain = 99 – 100%

B UT 23 X CO X CO 2 Approximately 75%> 75% The Problem? Greenhouse gases released by human activity: Carbon dioxide, methane, oxides of nitrogen Global Emissions

It’s basically about energy production/consumption Reduce energy use – especially when energy is generated by burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas); Especially reduce fossil fuel based transportation and electricity generation. Reduce, reuse, recycle. Individual Action A necessary but insufficient condition. Essence of A Solution

We Have Choices! Money inflows & outflows Back in the Day… Now…. Energy Accounting $ GHG CO 2 Carbon Accounting Hopium Addiction

What produces carbon emissions locally? Good Co, Eugene, OR GHG Inventory

Oregon Electric Generation Mix Source: Oregon Department of Energy Fossil fuels >50%

Rogue Valley Energy Production and Consumption

Average Energy Use in Oregon Homes

The ‘low hanging fruit’…

Energy Efficiency Pyramid for Home Improvements

Increasing CO 2 Mitigation Cost in € per ton = $1.4 Positive = Cost (Negative = Savings) Economic Study Undertaken by McKinsey Consulting Firm © 2010 Actions here cost us money Actions here save us money Let’s think now about the economics of addressing climate change…

Reducing carbon emissions Note I – China = 8.24 Gt U.S. = 5.8 Gt Combined 14 Gt Impact of the Financial Crisis on Carbon Economics © 2010; Per-Anders Enkvist, Jens Dinkel, Charles Lin, McKinsey & Company Note II - Role of Technology

Federal Solutions How would a carbon tax work? Levies tax at the point of origin (mine, well, extraction site), The annually increasing tax (or fee) would discourage carbon fuels and make carbon-free alternatives more cost-effective and competitive, Revenue could be used to promote R&D of alternative fuels or be returned to taxpayers as a dividend, Since total emissions are not regulated, effectiveness will depend on the pressures imposed by the tax, and the guess of a ‘correct’ tax to achieve a determined goal. It IS a tax….

To those who complain that it’s a tax…. We are currently paying a tax in suffering and economic losses due to heat waves, droughts, severe weather, etc. (some $200 b in U.S. over 2 years). Who should pay the tax? Those benefitting from polluting our atmosphere Or Those suffering. It’s a TAX!!!!

Co-Facilitators: Alan Journet Kathy Conway MEETINGS: Generally Last Tuesday of the month Special Topic Presentation 6:00 – 6:30 pm General Meeting: 6:30 – 8:00 pm Medford Pubic Library, 205 S. Central Ave.

Mission & Goal Statement Our Mission: To recognize the urgency for bold action against climate change To promote awareness and understanding about the causes and consequences of climate change To develop solutions and motivate concerned citizens to take action Goal: Collaborating with individuals and organizations throughout the world, we seek a reduction in the global atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to 350 parts per million. To achieve this, we encourage both personal and governmental actions that reduce carbon dioxide emissions from individual to global levels.

Focus Groups CommunityEducation Green EnergyGovernment Natural Resources Projects Bear Creek Salmon Festival CurriculumDivestment WeatherRiparian Restoration Federal GovernmentState Government Presentations StandingTeams Research Media Creative Leadership Circle Meetings on 2 nd Friday, noon-2pm at Talent Library

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CURRICULUM: Engage regional educators in developing curricular materials promoting in students an awareness and understanding of the science of climate change together with its causes, consequences and counters. Our target is to produce materials that can be used either in the curriculum (i.e. schools or at home) or in extra-curricular situations (youth groups, after school clubs, Nature Centers, Summer Camps, etc.). Next meeting – please come – Thursday October 17 th Phoenix Public Library 4:00 – 6:00 pm. WEATHER REPORTING: In collaboration with NOAA (U.S. Weather Service) staff we are trying to facilitate the inclusion by Weather Reporters of more climate change discussion in reports and analyses. DIVESTMENT: Develop a plan for divestment by city governments, religious groups, other organizations, educational institutions, and individuals from fossil PROJECT TEAMS

PRESENTATIONS: Offers presentations (and movies) to regional community, school, and service groups on aspects of climate change and how to address it. GOVERNMENT: Engage Federal, State and Local Representatives, Agencies, and their staffs in discussion regarding climate change and how to address it LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT: Developing district-by-district summaries of climate change projections and consequences to educate local media and legislators. NETWORKING: Explores local, regional, and national organizations with which SOCAN might develop a formal relationship, interact, or collaborate on projects. ENERGY: Promoting energy efficiency and alternative energy. PROJECT TEAMS

Please join us! For more information: Visit Or Contact Alan Journet or Kathy Conway Please join us!