The issue of relevance The task of gathering and interpreting snowpack information should include a process to determine how relevant the information from.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Technique Guidance Systems
Advertisements

Earthquake Vocabulary Notecards
Snow Depth Property with potentially largest variation in space.
Monday 4/18/2011 Ned Bair Mammoth Mountain Ski Patrol Ph.D. Candidate, Donald Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, UC – Santa Barbara US.
U.S. Avalanche Fatalities by Activity 1950/51 to 2000/ climbers bc skiers lift skiers (ob) lift skiers (ia) snowboarders.
Persistent and non-persistent weak Layers
Landslides.
Training day for AINEVA avalanche forecasters groupe
Research Methods in Psychology Complex Designs.  Experiments that involve two or more independent variables studies simultaneously at least one dependent.
Unit 4 Jeopardy Fracturing Faults Fierce Folding & Uppity Uplift
Stress and strain of snowpack
Metamorphism Due To Direct Weather Effects Learning Outcomes Understand the effects of direct weather on the snowpack. Understand melt-freeze and its effect.
..perhaps the hardest place to use Bernoulli’s equation (so don’t)
River Studies. Outline of Events During your river field work you will be visiting two different sites in the lower course of the river. At each site.
Prediction of Load-Displacement Curve for Weld-Bonded Stainless Steel Using Finite Element Method Essam Al-Bahkali Jonny Herwan Department of Mechanical.
Earthquakes.  Natural vibrations of the ground caused by movement at faults  Faults: Fracture in the Earth’s crust Faults form when rocks break deep.
HAIC Intro Meeting November 9 th, % 84%
GreatBreak: Grand Challenges in Geodynamics. Characteristics of a Desirable Geodynamic Model Ties together observational constraints on current state.
Level 1 Review. Level I Review Avalanche Types and Characteristics 1) What are the main characteristics of a slab avalanche? a) Large b) Well defined.
Independence of H and L  problem of L distributions treated in 2 dimensions  specific 2-d simulation  physical mechanisms responsible for avalanche.
Non-Experimental designs: Developmental designs & Small-N designs
Functional Assessment Observation Form Tutorial
What is Data ? Data is a numerical expression of an activity. Conclusions based on facts and data are necessary for any improvement. -K. Ishikawa If you.
Direct Shear Test CEP 701 PG Lab.
Turning Marketing Information into Action: Marketing Research Chapter 8.
Avalanche Hazards in Mountainous Terrain. Avalanche Hazards Terminal Learning Objective Action: Move safely in avalanche terrain. Condition: Under field.
Bonding and failure of bonds
Religious Moral and Philosophical Studies CPD Presentation.
Earth’s Layered Structure
We greatly appreciate the support from the for this project Interpreting Mechanical Displacements During Hydromechanical Well Tests in Fractured Rock Hydromechanical.
Details of Construction Lecture-2 “Shallow Foundation”
Copyright © 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pearson Addison-Wesley Chapter 13 Experiments and Observational Studies.
The specification notes that you must be able to describe methods of earthquake prediction. You must also understand the social consequences of earthquake.
Managing Software Projects Analysis and Evaluation of Data - Reliable, Accurate, and Valid Data - Distribution of Data - Centrality and Dispersion - Data.
Safety assessment of weathered slopes by measuring shear wave velocity Mohsin U. Qureshi, Ikuo Towhata and SuguruYamada Department of Civil Engineering,
AC SAFETY CULTURE “ROUTE SAFETY”. DONOVAN’S DEMISE PHOTO’S ALLEY GREG’S GRAVITY RICH’S HANG FIETON’S FALLOUT.
Warm Up 10/21(22) When an earthquake occurs, energy radiates in all directions from its source, which is called the ____. a. fault c. seismic center.
The student will demonstrate an understanding of how scientific inquiry and technological design, including mathematical analysis, can be used appropriately.
FRACTURES FAULTS FOLDS. Essential QuestionEssential Question How does Elastic Potential Energy cause the Earth’s crust to fracture, fault, and fold?
Definition LANDSLIDES
Measuring Complex Achievement
Qualifications Update: Higher Accounting Crowne Plaza Glasgow 10 December 2013 Qualifications Update: Higher Accounting Crowne Plaza Glasgow 10 December.
Outline • Who’s at risk • Types of avalanches • What causes avalanches
STRUCTURES Outcome 3 Gary Plimer 2008 MUSSELBURGH GRAMMAR SCHOOL.
1 8 C H A P T E R Resistance Training.
Earth Science: 7.1A Glaciers. Glaciers  As recently as 15,000 years ago, up to 30 percent of earth’s land was covered by an glacial ice.  Earth was.
Decision making Under Risk & Uncertainty. PAWAN MADUSHANKA MADUSHAN WIJEMANNA.
Edge effects in propagation tests Edward (Ned) H. Bair 1,2*, Ron Simenhois 3, Alec van Herwijnen 4, and Karl Birkeland 5 1 US Army Corps.
Bryan Ferguson –Level II Avalanche Safety –Level III Avalanche Forecaster American Avalanche Institute, Inc.
ALPTRUTH Avalanches in the area in the last 48 hours Loading by snow, wind or rain in the last 48 hours Paths, Avalanche paths Terrain Traps Rating, considerable.
1 Avalanche Avoidance and Companion Rescue. 2 Outline Who’s at risk What causes avalanches Educational resources Q and A Companion rescue (beacon, shovel.
8. Intrinsic and Related Forms of Breakdown in Solids
What % of the Earth is covered by ice?
The crust and the Earth’s interior
Warm Up Which of the following areas would most likely be the safest during a major earthquake? a. area with granite bedrock b. area with steep slopes.
Qualifications Update: Music Technology (Higher) Qualifications Update: Music Technology (Higher)
Earthquakes occur along faults. (Page 45)
Chapter 6 Design Basis and Safety Criteria National and Euro Codes - Limit State Approach  For structures entailing softening behaviour (cracking of concrete,
Avalanche Safety. Presentation Outline Avalanche Introduction Recognize Red Flags Identify Avalanche Terrain Travel Safely SAR Protocol Perform a Rescue.
Functional Behavioural Assessment (FBA) Sarah Casey.
Lesson Understanding Soil Drainage Systems. Interest Approach Ask students the question, “What determines how fast water will flow through a funnel?”
Gale Crater Stratigraphic Measurements and Preliminary Interpretations Ryan Anderson April, 2009.
LUKHDHIRJI ENGINEERING COLLEGE MORBI SUBJECT :- “BOX SHEAR TEST” 1.Mepani Kiran ( ) 2.Pavasiya Jaydeep ( ) 3.Pindoriya Jenti( )
ESCAPED PRESCRIBED BURNS: LESSONS WE SHOULD BE LEARNING Wisconsin Prescribed Burn Conference January 24-26, 2006.
Vertical electrical sounding (VES), also known as‘electrical drilling’ or ‘expanding probe’, is used mainly in the study of horizontal or near-horizontal.
Direct Shear Test.
Technique Guidance Systems By Prof. Stelmark. Anatomic Programming Anatomic programming, or anatomically programmed radiography (APR), refers to a radiographic.
Remote Sensing and Avalanches
Visually Interpreting Your Client’s Progress
Presentation transcript:

The issue of relevance The task of gathering and interpreting snowpack information should include a process to determine how relevant the information from observations and tests is to snow stability. Ensuring Relevancy and Verification of Snowpack Information

Assessing relevance: Concept of red flags; weigh certain pieces of information and certain values more than others. Next – ask, Where did the information come from, and is it representative of the terrain and snowpack in the start zones? Ensuring Relevancy and Verification of Snowpack Information

Standardized techniques are important! Each snowpack test REQUIRES AN OBJECTIVE prior to commencement. Practice and experience is required for quality site selection of field test sites. Tests are skillfully conducted using standardized, practiced techniques. Consistent techniques reduce uncertainty. Standardized techniques are important! Each snowpack test REQUIRES AN OBJECTIVE prior to commencement. Practice and experience is required for quality site selection of field test sites. Tests are skillfully conducted using standardized, practiced techniques. Consistent techniques reduce uncertainty. Ensuring Relevancy and Verification of Snowpack Information

Checklists to evaluate snow profile Challenges to the Observer Choose sites that are “near start zone” in character, but also safe and accessible. Ensuring conclusions regarding snowpack instability aren’t “premature.” Conclusions should be confirmed by peer review. Ensuring observations are repeatable and verified by other relevant tests. Recognizing the possibility of “false stable indicators.” Understanding the nature and scope of snowpack variation across the slope. Operational pressures or group dynamics may compromise available manpower or time and not provide the access required to complete tests properly.

Instability factors and Verification Spatial variability Field data taken across the start zone terrain Good obs. require an objective! Experience required Avoid conclusions from a partial picture – conclusions lack definition Expect false stable indications Checklists to evaluate snow profile

Snow profile Obs and test structural profiles of spx Disadvantage: takes time Yellow flags: points to layer and layer interface with 70-75% accuracy Ensuring Relevancy and Verification of Snowpack Information

Compression test  In combination w/frx character useful for identifying thin, persistent weak layers, and obs the likelihood of frx. initiation.  Focus on layer ID, initiation (27-70cm deep)  Focus on normal stress  Initiation need to record frx character Fracture character Sudden planar (SP)V, w/mfc Sudden collapse (SC) V > 1cm Ensuring Relevancy and Verification of Snowpack Information

Shovel shear test Focus on shear deformation  Can use Frx character with only SP, RP  Good only for midpack, cm  Observing layer changes over time in a study plot as block size and (given the same observer) pull force don’t change as the snowpack depth or “load’ increases.  More for snow researcher

Deep tap test  Not for upper spx layers  Good for stiff layer on weak snow  Block always the same size  Always use use Frx character Ensuring Relevancy and Verification of Snowpack Information

Limitations (small column tests) When obs frx character: Progressive compression (Q2) type fracture character is impractical to observe using a shovel shear test. Sudden collapse (Q1-“drops”) are harder to accurately observe using the ST. Progressive compression fractures are often associated with new snow or storm snow layers. Ensuring Relevancy and Verification of Snowpack Information

Extended column test  Lg column tests offer information about initiation and propensity for further propagation.  A 1 m column gives an idea of whether propagation will continue once the fracture has initiated  Observing weak layers under “soft slabs” greater than 30 cm thick but =/< 70 cm thick.  Similar depth to CT, cm  False stable with stiff slab (1F)  90 cm long x 30 cm wide  Cut to back wall to 100 cm

Propagation saw test  Need to indentify layer  Useful for observing fracture propensity for propagation.  Useful for correlating information gathered from CT & DT tests.  END: frx continues uninterrupted to the end of column  ARR, propagation arrests within the weak layer before reaching the end of the column  SF,propagation ends at a fracture through the overlyin g slab Ensuring Relevancy and Verification of Snowpack Information

Checklists to evaluate snow profile Layer IDInitiationPropensity further propagation Propensity propagation - failure Probing Shovel tilt Profiles Compression Shovel shear Deep tap test ECT PST RB Explosives

Consider all available information prior to making a statement on snowpack instability Avalanches: current and past Snowpack structure: consider history and variability Weather conditions: season trends, current condition, variation across the range Ensuring Relevancy and Verification of Snowpack Information

Fracture characteristics Small column tests + fracture characteristics w/o frx characteristics, 37% w/ fr characteristics, >97% in >4,000 tests

Checklists to evaluate snow profile Fracture initiation + fracture propagation = slab release In recent years it has become apparent that snowpack stability tests are better indicators of whether a skier is likely to initiate a fracture in a weak layer than whether ─ once initiated ─ the fracture will propagate. Learning Outcomes Know Shear Quality Know Frx character Know the Yellow Flags (e.g., Jamieson and Schweizer, in press)

Unusually clean, planar, smooth and fast shear surface: weak layer may collapse during fracture. The slab typically slides easily into the snow pit after weak layer fracture on slopes steeper than 35° and sometimes on slopes as gentle as 25°. Tests with thick, collapsible weak layers may exhibit a rougher shear surface due to erosion of basal layers as the upper block slides off, but the initial fracture was still fast and mostly planar. Q1 Shear Quality

Average” shear: shear surface appears mostly smooth, but slab does not slide as readily as Q1. Shear surface may have some small irregularities, but not as irregular as Q3. Shear fracture occurs throughout the whole slab/weak layer interface being tested. The entire slab typically does not slide into the snowpit. Q2 Shear Quality

Shear surface is non-planar, uneven, irregular and rough. Shear fracture typically does not occur through the whole slab/weak layer interface being tested. After the weak layer fractures, the slab moves a little, or may not move at all, even on slopes steeper than 35°. Q3 Shear Quality

Fracture character, CAA OGRS, 2007

Checklists to evaluate snow profile

Yellow Flags: Identifying potential failure layers There are three layer properties and three interface properties to check.

Checklists to evaluate snow profile