US MIGRATION METHODOLOGY From 1990 to 2011 By Travis Goldade

OUTLINE Back ground/Project Idea What is Migration Why am I interested Historical Migration Trends Domestic and World Past Studies Discussion my plan Ideal Vs Practical

OVERVIEW: WHAT IS MIGRATION? Migration- the study of where people go and why Often described by Push & Pull Factors Push Political instability, War, Famine Pull Economics, Population, Cultural, Sociological

QUICK REVIEW VS

WORLD MIGRATION From the start Started in Africa 200,00 Years ago Polynesia wasn’t settled till ~1000 A.D. Reason For Migration: Invasions Famine Climate Change Survival

WORLD MIGRATION Age of Exploration ~1600 to 1800 First major Migration of people for social needs (Printing Press) Reason For Migration: Religious persecution Nationalism Freedom

WORLD MIGRATION Industrial/Modern Migration ~1800 to Today Better Transportation (steam engine) Reason For Migration: Labor Migration (international) Urbanization (Internal) Money

WORLD MIGRATION Trends Migration Follows Change Climatic, Resource Based People had to move to live Renascence Social Revolution Moved for Freedom Industrial Revolution Moved for Money Political Shocks (fall of USSR) It is Accelerating More people are moving 16 th -18 th century 200 thousand people moved to America 19 th century over 50 Million people moved to America People move more for Economic reasons today Product of Globalization

HISTORICAL US ECON (1900’S TO 1980) Product of Britain's Industrial Revolution Econ was driven by manufacturing ’s (Industrial Rev) Strong immigration towards urban centers Reason = Jobs (Economic Pull) 1950 – 1980’s (Better Technology) Increase is transportation systems Pull away from the urban centers (suburbs) Move towards Manufacturing centers Suburbs of Detroit Move towards more desirable locations Nicer climate, less stress etc.. Common Trends East to West & North to South Went to Urban centers

INTERNET REVOLUTION Since the internet things have changed… No longer are we a Manufacturing based industry (that goes to China) We are information based and serviced based. Primarily because we live in a notion were goods are cheep but people are expensive So we cannot afford to pay people We are now serviced and Information based This has changed our jobs And our migration

MIGRATION TRENDS CURRENT (1990-PRESENT) Movement Away from Urban Centers Rural Areas becoming much more populated These are more desirable (cheaper, and you can still get a decent job) Population is less mobile Reason for this is jobs are not as centralized We moved from manufacturing industry To service and Information/tech based industry We don’t have to go a large factory Job providers have more flexibility (they don’t have to be next to a mine or port)

MY OBSERVATION OF HISTORICAL MIGRATION Push Factors = Survival & Social You only move if you have to Pull Factors = Econ and Leisure You move because you want to Push is more common in poor areas Pull is more common in 1 st world

BACKGROUND & IDEA Goal is to better understand US migration patterns Modern (since the Internet Revolution) Migration is a strong economic indicator Data readily available Complex analyses is every seldom used for this topic Migration is Difficult to understand till time passes Focus on differing political & economic times (Modern Booms and Busts) This is a poorly under stood topic Typically booms = ordered Busts = Chaos

WHY MIGRATION? To pass this class? Internal Migration = strong economic indictor People follow the money (where will we end up after graduation?) If they don’t that is where they spend it (Retirees) That area then benefits The dust is just starting to settle on the internet revolution Effects are still not known (similar to the industrial rev) Migration patterns have changed.. As far as I can tell this is completely novel This is Interesting, but probably not too practical

LITERATURE

WORLD MIGRATION LITERATURE The Findings were not that surprising There were hubs (US, Germany ect) The world is shrinking (small world) South to North pull People head to larger populations Gravity Model Applied F= flow G= const D= Distance M=Economic Mass

WORLD MIGRATION LITERATURE Weighted Gravity Model Matrix Language, Religion, Economic power ect They combined these in a 5 point metric Referenced in a book I could not access Log(N) =3.38 in 2000 Log(N) =1.36 in 2000

MODERN US MIGRATION Trends Flow from East to West Economic & Social based People move for leisure Educated young males most likely Not vey well studied Influx migration strong indicator of healthy economy Pull Factors High Employment Larger Populations (Urbanization) Housing Push Factors High Taxes (Government?) Good Economic times Ordered people go where the jobs are Bad Economic times Chaotic

MY PROPOSAL Ideally I would like to develop a gravity model for the US Internal Migration Factors would include All major push an pull factors : Population Local Tax Rates Distance from large companies Housing Costs Political Affiliation …. This is impractical I simply cannot get that data Could not analyze it I think elements in gravity model would change During different economic time frames

MY PROPOSAL Compromise Just looking at Population migration between counties IRS has this data from 1990 to 2011 Also look at Political affiliation of each county Ideally I would like to look at county government afflation Again this is impractical Presidential voting turn outs Nice easy to digest data UNR has this data I could get in great detail with it Look at this Data in differing Economic and Political time frames

MY PROPOSAL Time Frames to consider Economic : Formation of Internet : Dot Com Boom : Early 2000’s Recession : Housing Boom ?: Great Recession 2013-present getting out of it? Political : Bush Sr. (Rep) : Clinton (Dem) : Bush Jr. (Rep) 2008-Present : Obama (Dem)

HOUSING BOOM

HOUSING BUST

MY PROPOSAL Questions to answer Overall is there a trend to move to one political affiliation? Are we more likely to move to a Republican or Democrat County? Is there a correlation between National and local political afflation ? Are we more likely to move to a Republican county when we have a Republican President and visa versa? How about differing economic times? During a boom where do we tend to go? How about a bust? Are there communities that from Does forming a community = economic strength

WHAT AM I EXPECTING I am expecting a loose correlation Dot Com Boom people headed west Cali General Trend West Housing Boom People went to cheep homes Las Vega, the south and West Recession ….. God only knows If anything there has been tending towards the Mid West Expect different strengths of correlation when comparing Flux vs net Expecting Current time frame to be the most interesting Migration is not well understood during Recessions Obviously this was a big one

SUMMATION Complex Analysis has rarely been applied to migration Historically people move following change & Survival World Scale People are moving to Economic Hubs They move more out of Necessity US Scale People move for leisure Typically follow housing prices & job opportunities Poorly understood People tend to follow money Strong Economic Indicator I propose Map county by county map of the US from 1990 to 2011 Look for patterns Particularly Political Patterns

QUESTIONS