OThree Chemistry MM5/CAMx Model Diagnostic and Sensitivity Analysis Results: Base B and Emissions Sensitivities Central California Ozone Study: Bi-Weekly Presentation 3 T. W. Tesche Dennis McNally Harvey Jeffries 3 December 2003

OThree Chemistry Peak 1-hr Ozone Measurements for Sept ‘00

OThree Chemistry Recent Analyses & Results  Recent Reporting  Aug-Sept ’00 Monthly Technical Progress Narrative  Task 2 Model Performance Improvement Plan (  CAMx Base B Operational Evaluation  Multi-species (CO, NO, NO2, NOx, O3)  Aircraft  Ozonesonde  Vertical Slice Plots at Elk Grove, Parlier, Arvin  MM5 PBL height model performance testing  CAMx Emissions Sensitivity Simulations  Base Bn3 (3x NOx Emissions Scale-up)  Base Bv3 (3x VOC Emissions Scale-up)  Base Bn3v3 (3x VOC & NOx Emissions Scale-up)  Process Analysis Problem Definition (see companion file)

OThree Chemistry Review of Recent Research  Pertinent Studies  Envair Study: “Understanding the Effectiveness of Precursor Reductions in Lowering 8-hr Ozone Concentrations”, Reynolds and Blanchard, Envair, Chemical Process Analysis (CPA) in SAQM utilized. SAQM ozone response small, even to large VOC, NOx reductions. – 50% &75% reductions in VOC, NOx, & VOC+NOx – Zero out runs (no anthro) only lowered peak 1-hr ozone to 90 ppb Ozone production becomes more efficient with decreasing NOx emissions, undermining effects of NOx controls. CO emissions contribute ~ 20% of ozone under heavy NOx controls.  UNC Study: “Application of Integrated Process Rate Analysis to the SARMAP Air Quality Model”, Jeffries and Wang, UNC, Integrated Process Rate Analysis in SAQM utilized. Focus on influence of different vertical diffusion schemes in SAQM. SAQM Vertical transport and ‘mass adjustment’ in most significant components in Process Analysis balance. Unexpectedly large influence from vertical diffusion and dry deposition.

OThree Chemistry MM5 Model Configuration: Run 4

OThree Chemistry CAMx Model Configuration: Base B

OThree Chemistry CAMx Base B Operational Evaluation  Multi-species (CO, NO, NO2, NOx, O3)  Statistical Evaluation: Comparison Between Base B and Base A Accuracy Bias Error  Graphical/Statistical Results Aircraft (Base A) Ozonesonde (Base A) Vertical Slice Plots at Elk Grove, Parlier, Arvin (Base B)

OThree Chemistry Location of CAMx & MM5 Analysis Subdomains

OThree Chemistry CAMx4 Evaluation: Base B vs. Base A

OThree Chemistry Accuracy of Peak 1-hr Ozone: Base B vs. A

OThree Chemistry Bias in Hourly Ozone: Base B vs. A

OThree Chemistry Gross Error in Hourly Ozone: Base B vs. A

OThree Chemistry CAMx4 Evaluation: Full vs. SJV Domain

OThree Chemistry Accuracy of Peak 1-hr Ozone: Full vs. SJV

OThree Chemistry Bias in Hourly Ozone: Full vs. SJV

OThree Chemistry Gross Error in Hourly Ozone: Full vs. SJV

OThree Chemistry CAMx Comparisons with Aircraft Results 17 Sept ’00 at 1400 PST Base A

OThree Chemistry CAMx Comparisons with Aircraft Results 18 Sept ’00 at 1400 PST Base A

OThree Chemistry CAMx Comparisons with Aircraft Results 18 Sept ’00 at 1500 PST Base A

OThree Chemistry CAMx Comparisons with Aircraft Results 19 Sept ’00 at 0400 PST Base A

OThree Chemistry CAMx Comparisons with Aircraft Results 19 Sept ’00 at 1400 PST Base A

OThree Chemistry CAMx Comparisons with Aircraft Results 19 Sept ’00 at 1500 PST Base A

OThree Chemistry CAMx Comparisons with Aircraft Results 20 Sept ’00 at 1400 PST Base A

OThree Chemistry CAMx Comparisons with Ozonesonde Results Parlier Ozonesonde at 1400 PST on 18 Sept ‘00 Base A

OThree Chemistry CAMx Comparisons with Ozonesonde Results Parlier Ozonesonde at 1700 PST on 18 Sept ‘00 Base A

OThree Chemistry CAMx Comparisons with Ozonesonde Results Parlier Ozonesonde at 1700 PST on 19 Sept ‘00 Base A

OThree Chemistry Vertical Ozone Slice Plots At Elk Grove East-West Slice on 18 Sept ’00 at 1500 PST Base B PBL Height

OThree Chemistry Vertical Ozone Slice Plots At Elk Grove North-South Slice on 18 Sept ’00 at 1500 PST Base B

OThree Chemistry Vertical Ozone Slice Plots At Parlier East-West Slice on 18 Sept ’00 at 1500 PST Base B

OThree Chemistry Vertical Ozone Slice Plots At Parlier North-South Slice on 18 Sept ’00 at 1500 PST Base B

OThree Chemistry Vertical Ozone Slice Plots At Arvin East-West Slice on 18 Sept ’00 at 1500 PST Base B

OThree Chemistry Vertical Ozone Slice Plots At Arvin North-South Slice on 18 Sept ’00 at 1500 PST Base B

OThree Chemistry CAMx Sensitivity Simulations  CAMx Emissions Sensitivity Simulations  Base Bn3 (3x NOx Emissions Scale-up, across-the-board)  Base Bv3 (3x VOC Emissions Scale-up, across-the-board)  Base Bn3v3 (3x VOC & NOx Emissions Scale-up, across-the-board)

OThree Chemistry MM5 Modeling (next steps)  MM5 sensitivity to nighttime, ground-level temperature FDDA?

OThree Chemistry Emissions Modeling (next steps)  Influence of potential systematic biases in biogenic & motor vehicle emissions ( Runs Bn3, Bv3, Bn3v3 )  Adequacy of current speciation profiles for various VOC categories?  Adequacy of NO/NO2 split ( Believed to be minor issue? )

OThree Chemistry CAMx Modeling (next steps)  48 hr spin-up appears sufficient  Process Analysis (IPRA, CPA) underway  Model sensitivity to ICs/BCs (GEOS-Chem boundary conditions?)  Adequacy of dry deposition scheme for SJV  Effects of temperature bias on biogenic & motor vehicle emissions  Model sensitivity to vertical diffusivities  Adequacy of diurnal PBL height estimates

OThree Chemistry Data Sets Needed  Availability of most recent 1-hr/8-hr ozone design values for all regulatory monitors in 4 km domain?

OThree Chemistry Next Two Weeks  Analyze IPR results at Elk Grove, Parlier, Arvin.  Consider additional emissions sensitivity experiments.  Review emissions sensitivity experiments from Bay Area and other CCOS modeling studies