UkEcco: concepts & work to date Simon Roberts ECCOfest Oct09

14Oct09, Simon Roberts © Arup flow of services VPJ/y embodied energy of stuff VPJ flow of stuff VPJ/y services % IrelandEcco concepts energy PJ/y stocks of stuff VPJ trade in goods trade in fuel CO2 t/y resource VPJ/y depre- ciation VPJ/y transport km/y

14Oct09, Simon Roberts © Arup CSIRO report, 1998, p53 In order to endogenise growth in the model, it is assumed that only the residual between output and all other investment requirements (including trade) is allocated to reinvestment in industry, and consumption, the split between the two being determined empirically and altered by a policy lever RGCT (rate of goods consumption) in the section on “Personal consumption of goods”. Reinvestment in industry is subject to a construction delay, estimated at two years ie it takes two years for a decision to invest in industry to be translated into new physical output.

14Oct09, Simon Roberts © Arup IrelandEcco growth loop output of goods primary energy demand depreciation proportion of services used by industry stock of service sector stock of industry sector resources export of goods resource demand capital formation of other sectors capital formation of services consumption of goods depreciation import of goods capital formation of industry export of fuel import of fuel

14Oct09, Simon Roberts © Arup growth feedback 3,000 VPJ/y total output 100 VPJ/y industry investment (RCF) 2,000 VPJ industry stock

14Oct09, Simon Roberts © Arup IrelandEcco energy provision shortfall shortfall in electricity generation thermal generation fuel imports/exports domestic extraction transport thermal demand electricity demand stationary thermal demand gas, oil & coal demand freight demand index standard of living per capita CCT generation nuclear generation RE generation interconnector capital formation of generation shortfall/surplus in fuels stock of service sector stock of other sectors stock of dwellings stock of industry sector consumption of goods service demand dwellings passenger transport volume output of industry output of service sector

14Oct09, Simon Roberts © Arup IrelandEcco service provision needed total domestic service demand stock of service sector stock of industry sector capital formation of service sector depreciation stock of dwellings service demand service sector service demand industry sector service demand dwellings service demand net of trade stock of service sector required service demand for exports

14Oct09, Simon Roberts © Arup IrelandEcco: variables endogenous RCF industry consumer consumption RCF services exogenous service exports

14Oct09, Simon Roberts © Arup IrelandEcco: problems 1.“growth loop” –small residual (RCF IND) feeds back to the larger IND OUTPUT –derivation of “consumption” poorly substantiated 2.trade –energy imports VPJ equated to goods export VPJ –as energy imports increase, exactly balanced by goods export increase 3.services –no conversion to exported services –ignores imported services 4.balance of payments –no option to trade fuel, goods, services and other aspects

14Oct09, Simon Roberts © Arup UkEcco: variables endogenous consumer consumption RCF services RCF dwellings GDP growth energy demand employment foreign investment exogenous RCF industry indices fossil fuel availability service exports

14Oct09, Simon Roberts © Arup flow of services VPJ/y embodied energy of stuff VPJ flow of goods G£/y flow of stuff VPJ/y services S£/y UkEcco concepts energy PJ/y stocks of stuff VPJ trade in goods trade in fuel financial account income BoP £/y current account transfers trade in services working population capita CO2 t/y resource VPJ/y depre- ciation VPJ/y domestic liabilities £ foreign assets £ financial account transport km/y income

14Oct09, Simon Roberts © Arup money 1.goods (flow) 2.services (flow) 3.incomes (flow) 4.property, equity, second-hand goods (stock) 5.debt, loans

14Oct09, Simon Roberts © Arup loop 1: stuff remaining (“growth loop”) output of goods primary energy demand depreciation proportion of services used by industry stock of service sector stock of industry sector resources export of goods resource demand capital formation of other sectors capital formation of services capital formation of industry consumption of goods depreciation import of goods

14Oct09, Simon Roberts © Arup loop 2: service provision needed total domestic service demand stock of service sector stock of industry sector service demand met by imports capital formation of service sector depreciation stock of dwellings service demand service sector service demand industry sector service demand dwellings service demand net of trade stock of service sector required service demand for exports

14Oct09, Simon Roberts © Arup loop 3: energy provision shortfall shortfall in electricity generation thermal generation fuel imports/exports domestic extraction transport thermal demand electricity demand stationary thermal demand gas, oil & coal demand freight demand index standard of living per capita CCT generation nuclear generation RE generation interconnector capital formation of generation shortfall/surplus in fuels stock of service sector stock of other sectors stock of dwellings stock of industry sector consumptio n of goods service demand dwellings passenger transport volume output of industry output of service sector

14Oct09, Simon Roberts © Arup loop 4: balance of payments fuel trade income from assets transfers UK investment abroad total current account investment into the UK exports exchange rate goods trade services trade imports income payable on liabilities fuel £ goods £ services £

14Oct09, Simon Roberts © Arup presentation attempts! IoP EG talk (Oct07) takes: 0 (Aug08), 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 (Jun09, pp53) “The story of…” video (Jul09) dashboards of scenarios (Sep09) presentation of dashboards (12Oct09)