The Cost of Status Quo Governor’s Task Force on Modernizing Transportation Funding in Idaho December 2, 2009 Presented by Idaho’s Metropolitan Planning Organizations

Presentation Outline What is a Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO)? ▫ Why do we exist? ▫ What do we do? How do MPOs develop plans? What is the funding situation? ▫ What are the assumptions used? What are the ramifications? Congestion Financial

What is a Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO)? A regional planning entity responsible for transportation planning and approval of U.S. Department of Transportation funding for federally designated urbanized areas.

Why do MPOs exist? Mandated by law: ▫ U.S. Government mandate in Title 23, U.S.C. Section 134(a)(2):  “Metropolitan Planning Organizations…shall develop transportation plans and programs for urbanized areas of the state.”  “Provide for the safe and efficient movement of people and goods.” ▫ Required by federal government for an urban area to receive federal aid transportation funds

What is an MPO’s role? Provide a forum that brings together all aspects of the regional transportation system in order to achieve a unified voice ▫ Local and state ▫ Roadway, transit, non-motorized Provide coordination, collaboration, and collective decision-making on regional transportation system investments

What do MPOs do? Develop regional transportation plans ▫ Long-range transportation plans  20+ years ▫ Short range transportation plans  5 years  “Transportation Improvement Program” Oversee the prioritization and allocation of U.S. Department of Transportation funds to ▫ Address regional transportation needs ▫ Improve the local economy ▫ Maintain or improve air quality

Where do MPOs exist? Urban areas over 50,000 in population Five MPOs in Idaho: □ Kootenai Metropolitan Planning Organization □ Lewis-Clark Valley Metropolitan Planning Organization □ Community Planning Association of Southwest Idaho □ Bannock Transportation Planning Organization □ Bonneville Metropolitan Planning Organization Urban areas over 200,000 in populations □ Transportation Management Area (TMA)  Special designation with enhanced “rules” □ Northern Ada County □ Within the Community Planning Association planning area

Where are the MPOs in Idaho?

What is the statewide relevance of MPOs? Planning areas encompass ▫ 63% of Idaho’s population ▫ 54% of Idaho’s civilian jobs ▫ 815 lane miles of state roadways ▫ 6,814 lane miles of local roadways ▫ 32 cities ▫ 6 counties ▫ 9 highway districts

Who makes up an MPO? Governed by a Board of Directors □ Primarily elected officials  Cities  Counties  Highway districts □ Special members  Idaho Transportation Department  Local transit authorities  Universities (Boise State, Idaho State)  Tribes (Coeur d’Alene, Shoshone-Bannock, Nez Perce)  Others

How is a long-range plan developed? 20+ year planning horizon ▫ Predicts travel growth based on future land use ▫ Plans for future transportation programs and projects based upon the forecasts Completed/updated every 4 to 5 years Fiscally constrained ▫ Can only include projects where there is a reasonable chance of funding ▫ Other needed projects can be listed in the plan as unfunded (“illustrative”)

How is a long-range plan developed? Rigorous modeling □ Travel demand □ Population growth □ Economic growth □ Air quality Data-based □ Census □ Traffic counts □ Population estimates and forecasts □ GIS Public involvement Realistic future scenarios

What is considered when making planning decisions? Data and modeling results Necessities to accommodate future growth and travel demand Fiscal realities Regional dialogue on a vision of the future Planning for level of service “C” or “D” ▫ Pragmatic; not extravagant

What is “level of service”? A = Free flow B = Reasonably free flow C = Stable flow D = Approaching unstable flow E = Unstable flow F = Forced or breakdown flow

Level of service BDFBDF

Planning for congestion – Kootenai MPO

Assumption: Population (20-year planning horizon) ▫ Idaho population growth = 1.3% annually

Assumption: Population (20-year planning horizon) Percent of populations in MPO planning areas

Assumption: Funding (20-year planning horizon) Federal: 1.5% annual increase State fuel usage = 0.9% annual increase State vehicle registration = 2% annual increase Property tax = 3.9% annual increase Impact fees = 2% annual increase Local option tax registration fee = 4% annual increase

Assumption: State funding (20-year planning horizon) No increases based upon Legislative changes ▫ No change in fuel tax rates ▫ No change in Highway Distribution Account sources (fuel tax, registration fees) ▫ No change in Highway Distribution Account formulas

Assumption: Inflation (20-year planning horizon) Roadway construction inflation rates ▫ Short-term inflation (2010 – 2014)  2.8% ▫ Long-term inflation (2015 – 2030)  4.0%  Consistent with Federal Highway Administration guidance

Annual revenues per year; 2009 to 2030 (MPO planning areas)

OPR vs. Expansion What is “OPR”? Short for “operations, preservation, restoration.” All non-capacity maintenance projects. The same as the following ITD categories: What is “Expansion”? All capacity projects. The same as the following ITD category: OperationsPreservationRestoration Expansion  Snowplowing  Striping  Patching potholes  Signal/sign repair  Crack sealing  Guard rail repair  Grading gravel  Seal coating  Overlays  Bridge deck seals  Bridge deck replacement  Grading gravel surfaces  Rebuild old roads and bridges  NOT adding lanes or widen roads Adding lanes or widen roads or bridges

Average annual shortfall

Total projected shortfall (MPO planning areas) Total average annual projected shortfall based on current dollars over the next 20 years within MPO planning areas $169.9 Million

The cost of status quo Cost of doing nothing exceeds the cost of doing something. ▫ Increased congestion → increased costs →

Cost of congestion: Time

Cost of congestion: Financial Value of time = $24

Cost of congestion: Personal Opportunity costs ▫ Time with family vs. time stuck in traffic vs.

Future challenges facing MPOs Potential changes in federal transportation bill ▫ Donee state vs. donor state ▫ Solvency of the federal Highway Trust Fund ▫ More emphasis on transit to decrease vehicle miles traveled ▫ Without dedicated funding for transit, Idaho may not be able to meet new goals Air quality issues ▫ Potential federal changes to air quality standards

In summary MPOs play a key role in transportation planning and investment in Idaho MPOs’ transportation plans… ▫ Are based on solid data and mathematical modeling ▫ Use significant public involvement ▫ Are pragmatic and realistic  “Family sedan” type of plans; not luxury models Financially, Idaho’s transportation picture is grim and unsustainable if we want to meet public expectations.

The bottom line… The cost of doing nothing is greater than the cost of repairing the system.

Thank you