PEAK OIL AND CLIMATE CHANGE 27 May 2013 U3A Moruya Jenny Goldie, ACT Peak Oil National President, SPA

The importance of oil 90% of manufactured goods depend on availability of oil

The importance of oil Oil powers 95% transportation

Oil and food production Oil is needed to manufacture fertiliser and operate farm machinery, for irrigation and transportation, for raising livestock and producing pesticides.

Consumption of oil The world consumes the equivalent of 60 oil tankers a day

Cheap oil has been the basis of our prosperity Courtesy Ian Dunlop

What is peak oil? Peak Oil is the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area… (Colin Campbell ASPO)

What is peak oil? M King Hubberd predicted in 1956 that US oil production would peak in (It peaked 1970).

Peak oil in Norway Courtesy Ian Dunlop

When was peak conventional oil? From 2005 onwards, conventional crude-oil production has not risen to match increasing demand. (2010 report)

Australia’s suppressed report “The outlook …is for a long decline in oil production to begin in ” Report 117: Transport Energy Futures -- Long Term Oil Supply Trends and Projections. The 2009 report was prepared for the Minister for Infrastructure Anthony Albanese by Dr David Gargett of the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE). Picture: John Tiedeman Daily Telegraph

Coming shortages? US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015 Shortfall could reach 10m barrels a day, report says (11 April 2010)

German military warning A 2011study by a German military think tank warned that within 10 years oil shortages may collapse global economy. “Many will not want to hear but peak oil is unavoidable.”

NRMA/Blackburn 2013 Report: “Australia’s Liquid Fuel Security” “…without an adequate supply of liquid fuels we could not access health services food production and distribution would be severely curtailed most businesses could not operate our personal and much of the public transportation system could not function and our Defence Forces could not operate. Essentially, our society as we know it would cease to function.”

The growing gap between discovery and production Courtesy Dail;ykos.com

What was expected, but… Courtesy

…in fact, not a peak but a plateau Courtesy energyinsights.net

Alternatives to conventional oil Unconventional oil Deep water Tar sands Arctic Ultra-deep pre-salt Shale oil Heavy oil Biofuels Corn Sugar Algae

BP Energy Outlook 2030 High prices and technological innovation have unlocked vast unconventional resources in the US, reversing the trend of falling output and altering global energy balances.

BP Energy Outlook 2013 In 2012, 24% of US oil production was from tight oil In 2012, 37% of natural gas was from shale These resources have boosted gas output by nearly 20% and oil by 30% in the past five years.

Unconventional oil (1) Deep water

Unconventional oil (2) Tar sands

Unconventional oil (3) Arctic

Unconventional oil (4) Ultra-deep pre-salt oil

Unconventional oil (5) Shale oil

Unconventional oil (6) Heavy oil

Death of peak oil?

The Death of Peak Oil? Courtesy peakenergy.blogspot.com

Energy Information Agency (EIA) 2013 report. Trends to 2040 Oil production rises, reducing net imports US becomes net natural gas exporter Coal’s share of electric power generation falls Gasoline consumption declines while diesel fuel use grows Natural gas consumption grows in industrial and electric power sectors Renewable fuel use grows at a faster rate than fossil fuel use

IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 Courtesy Ian Dunlop

IEA World Energy Outlook 2011 Courtesy Ian Dunlop

IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 “…the United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and is almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by North America emerges as a net oil exporter, accelerating the switch in direction of international oil trade, with almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports being drawn to Asia by 2035.”

IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 Global oil demand exceeds 99 mb/d in 2035… A surge in unconventional and deepwater oil boosts non-OPEC supply over the current decade, but the world relies increasingly on OPEC after Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global oil production to 2035 and becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia.

Energy Watch Group (Germany) Courtesy Ian Dunlop

Energy Watch Group 2013 report Peak Oil – the maximum sustainable rate of global oil production – happened in “…coal and gas production will reach their respective production peaks around 2020…” “Therefore, the decline of oil production – which is expected to start soon – will lead to a rising energy gap which will become too large to be filled by natural gas and/or coal.”

Decline or not? EWG expects a 40per cent decline in oil production by 2030 IEA expects to meet increased demand of 99mbd in 2035

Australia’s oil shortfall an increasing financial burdenA$30-- ‐ 60 billion Australia’s oil supply shortfall - $30-60 b by 2020 Courtesy Ian Dunlop

ERoEI dropping rapidly Courtesy Ian Dunlop

ERoEI

Evidence of global warming

Past and future fuel consumption

We can only burn 30% fossil fuels

But can we use all fossil fuels? “We can emit 565 more gigatons of carbon dioxide and stay below 2°C of warming …Burning the fossil fuel that corporations now have in their reserves would result in emitting 2,795 gigatons of carbon dioxide – five times the safe amount. Bill McKibben 350.org

Possible breakdown?

Solutions Urban re-design - high density integrated with efficient public transport - decentralisation of work centres Rail becomes major transport mode – for high-speed passengers and freight Electricity from clean energy Halt to freeway and airport construction Reduced air travel - unless quality biofuels emerge Localised food production Major IT innovation to reduce ecological footprint – built around high speed broadband Enhanced resource productivity -zero waste design Courtesy Ian Dunlop

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