Sustainable Cities:   Coupling Cycles of Energy, Water, & Land-use to Reinvent the Urban Landscape Kimberly A. Gray Professor Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering Energy, Cities, and the Control of Complex Systems Workshop 47th Session of International Seminars on Planetary Emergencies 14 May 2014

Global Conditions Urban face of planet - Since 2008 > ½ world’s population urban; 70% by 2050 - Creating a precarious condition where 3.5 billion people occupy only about 2% of the earth’s land area Post-industrial countries urbanized relatively slowly and have been 80% urban for decades; in contrast, many developing countries undergoing massive demographic shifts – in terms of scale and time

• Urban Development as Opportunity - Cities may be our “greatest invention”… • 70% of global GDP • 70% of global energy • 75% of global resources • lowest energy, GHG / capita - But the typical city in U.S and elsewhere in world is woefully inefficient in the way it • transports its citizens • supplies information • manages its water supply • produces food and energy • treats its wastes - We must reinvent old & new cities by devising strategies for sustainable urban design, which is based on the ecological principles of material & energy cycling and on policies & incentives that make business sense. - Cities are hotbed of adaptation, resilient actions http://www.sustainability.com/blog/missed-connections-business-cities-and-the-urban-sustainability-imperative?

• Human Footprint on Earth System: • Human Footprint on Earth System: - Beyond the Boundary; Limits to Growth? - Metrics Rockstrom J. et al. (2009) A safe operating space for humanity, Nature, 461:472-475.

Key vulnerabilities may be associated with many climate & ecologically sensitive systems: • Food supply • Infrastructure • Health • Water resources • Coastal systems • Ecosystems • Global biogeochemical cycles • Ice sheets • Modes of ocean & atmospheric circulation S. Schneider (2009) Science as a Contact Sport (National Geographic Society, Washington, D.C.)

Overarching Question What makes a city truly sustainable? How do we design a truly sustainable city?

Yet. . . • Over last 50 years we have seen many examples of green or eco-design BedZed (London, England) Dockside Green (Victoria, B.C.) Frieburg, Germany Hammarby Sjöstad (Stockholm, Sweden) Curitiba, Brazil Copenhagen, Denmark Singapore Masdar (Abu Dhabi, UAE) • Why, then, do we continue to question the feasibility of eco-developments & don’t we observe projects scaling up?

Why? • Economic viability – incompatibility with principles of sustainability • Scale – neighborhood vs. city vs. region • Metrics - not single parameter • Is sustainability still possible? - Lack of definition – can mean almost anything - Less bad - Not an end state; dynamic, process (flows & networks) - Human systems (institutions, behavior, acceptance, etc.); not technology constrained.

City Today HEAT Energy CO2 Used Water Water Biomass Waste Food Solid Waste Materials Diffuse Large Inputs & Outputs of Energy & Materials Linear Flows Value Added: Economic output Wealth Quality of Life

Diminished Inputs & Outputs Future Reduced HEAT C - Neutral Energy Hinterland Zero Net Waste Water Water City Biomass Water Food Materials Energy Zero Net Biomass Waste Food Zero Net Waste Materials Increased Value Added: Economic output Wealth Quality of Life Diminished Inputs & Outputs of Energy & Materials Coupled & Cyclic Flows

Four stories Living Cities: Transforming APEC Cities into Models of Sustainability by 2030 Transforming Chicago’s Water Cycle to Closed Loop System Biorefinery – coupling energy-water-land-use systems Human Engineering vs. Nature’s Engineering

APEC 2011- We were asked to research: Environmental Goods and Services Eco-Cities LEED and other green certifications “conduct study on the best practices using environmental goods and services in new construction and development. . .particular interest in eco-city design & in LEED. . .”

Demographic Shifts Developing world --Unprecedented demographic shifts (both rates & scale) are occurring. - It is estimated that an urban area supporting a million people will be developed every 5 days for the next 40 years, effectively doubling the urban face of the planet at about 10 times the rate of previous eras. Post-industrial world is changing, too. - Some cities shrinking; others growing, but both slower rates & smaller scale

Living Cities: Sustainable Urban Design in the 21st Century

Living City Inner workings based on ecological principles of material & energy recycling Locally tailored Distributed vs. centralized systems Resilient & adaptive All major functions linked**** Coordinated through networks of smart connections that monitor, manage, integrate & inform – central nervous system Teaming with business opportunities A sentient place, the city will not just gather information but change and react to feedback. Leo Hollis, The Future of the City, April 11, 2013.